By far, most EU banks pass stress tests

But with only 7 of 91 lenders tagged unsound, critics doubt checkups’ rigor

Workers on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange watch news reports Friday showing the results of the “stress tests” on Europe’s banking system.
Workers on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange watch news reports Friday showing the results of the “stress tests” on Europe’s banking system.

— Seven of 91 European banks failed “stress tests” to determine whether Europe’s banking system is sound enough to weather the continent’s debt crisis, results released Friday showed.

German bank Hypo Real Estate Holding, Agricultural Bank of Greece and five Spanish savings banks have insufficient reserves in the event of a recession and a crisis in sovereign debt, that debt for which a particular government is responsible, the lenders and regulators said.

It had been said that some banks needed to fail for the exercise to be accepted as credible, and some analysts argued that the results showed the tests weren’t rigorous enough. After the release of the results, the euro was trading flat at just below $1.29.

“It would have aided credibility if there had been a higher number of fails and a higher amount of capital raised,” said Jon Peace, a London-based analyst at Nomura International. “People will be surprised that it is as small as that.”

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If stock and bond markets take the view that the tests were not tough enough when European trading resumes Monday, then the exercise could make matters worse- and further expose the EU to charges that it has failed to rise to the challenge of the debt crisis within its borders.

The test results did not seem to dampen enthusiasm on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 102 points to 10,424.62, cutting its loss since Dec. 31 to less than 0.1 percent.

“The stress tests do not seem that stressful, and it is looking more like a politi cal whitewash rather than a genuine attempt to reassure financial markets that eurozone banks have balance sheets that could really withstand sovereign-risk shocks,” said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

“They are delaying the day of reckoning,” MacKinnon said.

Policymakers in Europe hope the results will reassure markets worried about hidden bank losses from the crisis. They were quick to laud the results as a resounding vote of confidence in Europe’s banking system.

The European Union said the results “confirm the overall resilience” of the continent’s banking system.

Christine Lagarde, France’s finance minister, said the tests were “tough” and “very comprehensive, and as a result I would suggest that those results should be very credible and should raise the confidence in European banks.”

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors, the little-known regulator that conducted the stress tests, said the seven banks would see their capital positions fall too low for them to weather a steep fall in the price of government bonds many of them hold, a worst-case scenario dubbed “sovereign shock” that still stops short of an outright debt default by an EU government. That may make the tests less convincing to some, since many analysts still predict Greece will eventually have to restructure its debt - a polite description for default.

The failure of Germany’s already-nationalized lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG had been widely expected. So far, the bank, which does not expect to return to profit before 2012, has received capital injections worth $10 billion from the German government’s bank rescue fund and loan guarantees of more than $100 billion.

There had been speculation in the run-up to the publication of the results that some of Germany’s regional banks would fail to clear any stringent hurdles.

As it was, only NordLB came close to joining Hypo but barely scraped by.

As expected, Spain notched up the most casualties, with five of its small savings banks deemed as having insufficient capital to deal with future adverse shocks after the collapse of the country’s property boom. The five Spanish banks - none of them listed on stock markets - were Diada, Unnim, Espiga, Banca Civica, and Cajasur, which was bailed out by the Bank of Spain in May.

Greece’s ATE bank failed and confirmed that it would go ahead and proceed with a capital increase, which will involve the highly indebted Greek government itself, the main shareholder.

In total the seven banks have to raise $3.5 billion to shore up their finances, the Committee of European Banking Supervisors said.

That’s far lower than some analysts had been predicting. But the supervisors said Europe’s banks have, over the past couple of years, gone a long way to shoring up their balance sheets.

Anxiety about Europe’s banks mounted in tandem with the government debt crisis, which eventually led to a $142 billion international bailout of Greece and a $1 trillion backstop for other troubled governments if they need it.

The worry was the banks were holding government bonds from the likes of Greece, especially as their finances had already been battered by the recession. Banks became more reluctant to lend to one another and many of Europe’s banks became more dependent on emergency funds from the European Central Bank for much of their day-to-day needs.

“It seems the tests may have raised more questions than they have answered, and in the coming weeks it will be the interbank lending markets that will have the real answer as to whether real confidence has returned to the European banks,” said Mark O’Sullivan, director of dealing at Currencies Direct.

Information for this article was contributed by Pan Pylas, Juergen Baetz, Greg Keller, Elena Becatoros, Barry Hatton and Ciaran Giles of The Associated Press and Jann Bettinga and Charles Penty of Bloomberg News.

Front Section, Pages 1 on 07/24/2010

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