Mississippi’s drop less than feared

Tows ply the Mississippi River south of St. Louis in late November in this photo provided by the U.S. Coast Guard. Months of drought have left the Mississippi near historic low levels between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill.
Tows ply the Mississippi River south of St. Louis in late November in this photo provided by the U.S. Coast Guard. Months of drought have left the Mississippi near historic low levels between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill.

— A revised Mississippi River forecast offered a bit of a reprieve for shippers Wednesday, showing the water level isn’t dropping as quickly as feared. Still, at least two large barge companies already are reducing their loads over concerns about the river’s depth.

Months of drought have left the Mississippi near historic low levels, a problem worsened last month when the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reduced the outflow from an upper Missouri River dam, lessening the amount of water that drains into the Mississippi where the rivers converge near St. Louis.

The river at St. Louis on Wednesday was about 13 feet deep. The Coast Guard has said further restrictions on barge traffic — most notably in a 180-mile stretch between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill. — are likely if the river dips to around 9 feet, though the decision is based on observation of conditions and not the level on the gauge.

Earlier National Weather Service forecasts had projected getting to the 9-foot level by Sunday or Monday. But a Weather Service hydrologist said Wednesday that revised modeling now calls for reaching that level around Dec. 29, then dropping another foot by Jan. 2.

A message seeking comment about the revised forecast wasn’t immediately returned by Coast Guard officials.

Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said the earlier modeling didn’t account for water draining back into the Missouri River from its flood plain — draining that is occurring because the river is so low.

“It’s prolonging everything,” Fuchs said, though he warned the Mississippi “is going to get down there eventually if it doesn’t rain.”

Barge operators know that as well. Two operators say they’ve already decided to reduce the size of their barge loads.

Nashville, Tenn.-based Ingram Barge — the nation’s biggest carrier on the inland U.S. waterway system — has cut drafts to 8 feet for barges traveling north of Cairo, a company spokesman said.

A major shipper in Arkansas, Bruce Oakley Inc. of North Little Rock, started running barges on the upper- and mid-Mississippi River at 7-foot depths in the past few days, said David Choate, vice president of grain and barge operations. Before that, 8-foot depths had been in place for about two weeks as the river’s level dropped.

“It was not unexpected because we had seen the longrange forecast from the National Weather Service. It’s all a result of extreme drought,” Choate said. The company has four ports on the Arkansas River, from which traffic can be routed onto the Mississippi.

During normal times, shippers can pack barges on the Mississippi to 11-foot and 12-foot depths. For each foot of depth lost because of shallow river conditions, a barge has to load 215 fewer tons, Choate said. “The difference between an 11-foot draft and a 7-foot draft is 864 fewer tons,” Choate said. “That’s equivalent to about 35 tractor trailer loads.”

The Bruce Oakley operation already also has been affected because Montgomery Point Lock and Dam, the lock closest to the Mississippi River on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System, has been closed for repairs to gate hinges since Saturday. Shippers say no barge traffic is moving between the Arkansas River and the Mississippi River until those repairs are completed, which is expected around Dec. 21.

The severity of the issue surfaced Monday, when an 18-barge tow ran aground on a submerged sandbar at a curve south of Memphis. Refloating that barge took some 20 hours, causing a backup of 12 northbound vessels and twice that number headed downriver, the Coast Guard said.

“The low river definitely is affecting the way mariners are transiting the river,” said Lt. Ryan Gomez of the Coast Guard’s Memphis office. “It is a concern right now.”

River shipping trade groups have warned of a potential economic disaster if river traffic is restricted or shut down for an extended period.

Last week, several senators whose states border the Mississippi River met with Army Assistant Secretary Jo-Ellen Darcy, urging her to take two steps to ease concerns: Cut down on the amount of water held back on the upper Missouri River; and expedite removal of rock formations in the Mississippi River near two southern Illinois towns, formations that could scrape barges in periods of extreme drought.

Current plans call for explosives to be used in February to blow up the rocks, but Army Corps spokesman Mike Petersen in St. Louis said Wednesday that the agency has expedited soliciting bids for the work with hopes of having a contractor hired as early as next month. The Corps also has promised the senators a response to their water flow request by later this week.

Information for this article was contributed by Lisa Hammersly of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

Business, Pages 25 on 12/06/2012

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