LITTLE ROCK — Retailers are looking forward to a rebound in backto-school and back-to-college spending this year, after a 2011 season in which sales were flat or slightly declining.
Reports from retail groups and researchers indicate shoppers intend to buy more this year for backto-school, the second-biggest shopping event of the year behind the Christmas season when combined with backto-college spending.
“This is an important shopping period, and retailers have struggled during back-to-back seasons the past few years,” said Bill Martin, founder of Chicago-based ShopperTrak, which tracks retail foot traffic in stores and point-of-sale data.
Martin forecasts that retail sales nationally in August will rise 4 percent year-overyear, boosted by a 1.5 percent increase in retail foot traffic. He said that, for the past two years, his data showed very targeted shopping.
“This year, back-to-school shoppers will visit more stores and browse for the best value,” he said.
Surveys conducted for the National Retail Federation by research firm BIGinsight found that parents with children in grades kindergarten through 12th grade will spend an average of $688.62 this year, up from $603.63 a year ago, generating $30.3 billion in sales.
Projected back-to-college spending boosts the total to $83.8 billion, according to the research firm.
According to the survey results, parents estimated they will spend an average of $246.10 on clothing, $217.88 on electronics, $129.20 on shoes and $95.44 on school supplies.
Shoppers who are buying school supplies, school instructional materials, art supplies and clothing get a break on state and local sales taxes Saturday and next Sunday, the state’s annual sales tax holiday.
Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer, said on a conference call with reporters Thursday that a survey of consumers found that more than eight in 10 said that the still-recovering economy will influence their buying decisions. The likely result, he said, will be “an enormously promotional” back-to-school shopping season as shoppers spread out their purchases over a longer period of time.
Nearly half of shoppers polled said they would start shopping three weeks to a month before school starts.
Still, he said, replenishing and restocking will occur.
“You can only go for so long with a ripped backpack,” he said. “When it comes to the things the kids are going to need, parents are going to find a way to get it done.”
Shay said back-to-college shopping will be driven by a range of higher-ticket items such as microwave ovens and small refrigerators for dorm rooms and apartments.
Pam Goodfellow, director of consumer insights for BIGinsight, said consumer confidence has improved but is still far from stellar as the nation’s unemployment rate remains above 8 percent.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said a survey of its shoppers found that a majority of moms view back-to-school as a “time for a fresh start.” The company has put together an online compilation of thousands of supply lists for schools in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.
“We’re committed to setting our customers up for success this back-to-school season by sticking to our plan — offering everyday low prices and the broadest assortment of the right merchandise their families need,” Duncan Mac Naughton, chief merchandising officer for Wal-Mart U.S., said in a news release.
The company said it will have more than 100 back-toschool items, such as pencil pouches, notebooks, dry erase boards and lunch totes, priced at 88 cents.
Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, said the economic picture for this year’s backto-school season is mixed. The jobless rate is down a bit, she said, but growth in the nation’s gross domestic product is slowing.
“Back-to-school has retailers a little bit on edge,” she said. “I think that there’s a fair amount of nervousness out there.”
Deck expects many shoppers will buy cautiously, sticking to a list of school supplies.
“Discretionary purchases, a fresh look for the new year, those are the kinds of things that parents will look at a little more carefully,” she said.
Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for research firm The NPD Group Inc., said the persistent summer heat wave likely has delayed back-to-school shopping. The firm’s research found that 46 percent of shoppers expect to spend about the same this year as in 2011, 31 percent expect to spend more and 24 percent expect to spend less.
“There will be waves of sales growth. In the early stages, school supplies and electronics will do well,” Cohen said in a report. “And when school is back in session, apparel and footwear will show some true promise, driving shoppers to department, sporting goods and specialty stores.”
Kmart is offering shoppers 5 percent off on backto-school purchases that are put on layaway.
A survey by online retailer pricegrabber.com found that 63 percent of respondents intend to spend up to $500 on back-to-school purchases this year, up from 48 percent a year ago. Another 20 percent planned to spend between $500 and $1,000.
School supplies and clothing topped the list of those surveyed: 83 percent cited general school supplies, 79 percent had clothes on their list and 51 percent planned to buy a backpack or tote bag.
An online survey done for Chase Card Services by Research Now, a global firm with headquarters in Plano, Texas, found that 38 percent of respondents had set a budget for school-related expenses this year, up from 26 percent a year ago. Apparel was the top category named by 43 percent of respondents.
Though nearly a quarter said they would shop for computers, smart phones, tablet computers or other technology devices, half said they would not buy those items during back-to-school shopping.
“Consumers have learned a lot of valuable lessons about mindful spending over the last few years, and shoppers will be keeping those lessons top of mind whether they’re buying for school-age kids or stocking up for a semester at college,” Rachana Bhatt, marketing director for Chase Slate cards, said in a news release.
Business, Pages 65 on 07/29/2012