LITTLE ROCK — An unusually dry spring and little chance of rain ahead has prompted the National Drought Mitigation Center to forecast drought conditions for most of the state.
The center in Lincoln, Neb., issued its report Friday, saying most of Arkansas is considered “abnormally dry or in drought.” Twelve northeast counties are wholly or partially in “moderate drought.”
The center combines data from the National Weather Service, the National Water and Climate Center, the U.S. Geological Survey and state climatologists to provide drought forecasts for the country.
Only Columbia and Union counties in south Arkansas did not receive some classification of drought by the center.
“It’s really bad,” said Don McNelly of Pollard, who farms soybeans on 900 acres in northeastern Clay County. “There’s so much dust out here I thought it was a dust bowl.”
He said forecasts of rain are not heartening.
“We were told before we had ‘can’t miss’ rain forecasts,” McNelly said. “Well, they missed us.
“It’s extremely bad now. It’s the worst I’ve seen it get this early.”
Along with the farmers, the dry conditions have hampered canoe rentals along the Buffalo National River,where business owners say the river is so low that people can’t float down it.
“If we don’t hurry up and get some rain, I think [the drought conditions] will increase in the next couple of weeks,” said John Robinson, warning coordinator with the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.
“And unless we get substantial rains, it will evaporate quickly and dry quicker. It’s a vicious cycle.”
A two-year drought in Arkansas ended in March when the designation was lifted for the state’s southwest corner. Now, Robinson said, the drought is advancing from the northeast.
While Arkansas’ situation is serious, droughts are worse in southwest Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Florida and Georgia. Even northern Minnesota is reporting a moderate drought.
It’s a far cry from last year, when farmers in northeast Arkansas were battling flood waters during planting time in April and May.
“It’s a polar opposite this year,” said Ray Benson, an agricultural agent with the Mississippi County Cooperative Extension Service. “If we don’t get rain in a week, it’s going to be critical.”
Benson said he was concerned about water-activated herbicides that help prevent weed growth.
“We’re set up to have a weed problem,” he said. “If we don’t get rain soon, farmers will have to irrigate and that’s an expensive option.”
The National Weather Service in North Little Rock forecasts a chance of rain for most of the state this week.
“Whatever we get will be spotty,” Robinson said. “It may not help.”
The drought conditions have been developing since the first of the year.
Jonesboro received 12.07 inches of precipitation between Jan. 1 and May 16 this year. Normally, the Craighead County city gets an average of 19.49 inches during the same period, and now has a 7.42-inch deficit.
Pine Bluff has received 13.36 inches of rain so far this year, 7.5 inches less that the average 20.86 inches it normally receives.
From Jan. 1 to May 16, Fayetteville saw 5.9 inches less in rainfall, West Memphis recorded a decrease of 6.7 inches, Texarkana received 2.91 inches less than normal and Little Rock had 1.38 inches less.
Only Fort Smith has seen an increase this year, with 18.23 inches. On average, the city receives 16.59 inches over the same time period.
Robinson said the drought conditions will likely worsen. The forecast is for above-normal temperatures and only a slight chance for above-normal rainfall in June, July and August.
The lack of water has forced canoe-rental businesses to cancel reservations along the 135-mile Buffalo National River that cuts through the Ozarks in northern Arkansas.
“It’s been a rough season,” said Mitchell Wayman, office manager for Buffalo River Canoes in Pruitt. “It’s going to force us to shut down early. We don’t have any water to offer anybody.”
Wayman said the water level in the upper portion of the Buffalo National River usually begins dropping in late June or July. This is the earliest he’s seen the river so low, he said.
“It’s dropping every day,” Wayman said. “We get 40 calls a day for reservations. We tell them there’s not going to be any water until it rains.
“We try to be realistic.”
Aaron Darnell, owner of the Buffalo River Float Service near Yellville, said conditions are better for river floating on the upper end of the river.
“It’s been low, but you can still float,” he said. “But it doesn’t usually get like this until July.”
He said the river flow at his rental business is about 25 cubic feet per second. Normally, the river runs at 250 cubic feet per second; last year, when the Buffalo National River was flooding, flow rates exceeded 40,000 cubic feet per second.
“We’re cautiously optimistic about the rain in the forecast,” Darnell said. “We’re hoping.”
Arkansas, Pages 9 on 05/29/2012