LITTLE ROCK — Davy Carter, the incoming speaker of the Arkansas House, is the personification of the demographic and political changes roiling Arkansas. Earlier this month, the men and women who will serve in the House when the Legislature convenes in January voted 52-45 to make the 37-year-old banker and attorney from Cabot the first Republican speaker since Reconstruction.
After Republicans had gained a 51-48 House majority in the November 6th elections, it was assumed that Democrat Darrin Williams of Little Rock would lose the speaker-designate title he had held since March. Indeed, Williams, who was hoping to become the state’s first black speaker, had the speaker-designate title removed. Republican Terry Rice of Waldron, the lone Republican candidate for speaker back in March, was to have been the new speaker once the GOP gained control. But Carter emerged as a candidate shortly before the November 15th House vote and defeated Rice, thanks to a coalition of Democrats and Republicans.
Carter was raised at Marianna and has a deep love for his hometown. Yet the fact that he hails from one of the counties that has been losing population in recent decades and now lives in one of the state’s growth centers symbolizes the demographic revolution. Lee County, where Carter grew up, had a population of 10,424 people in the 2010 census, down from 12,580 residents in the 2000 census. The highwater mark for Lee County was 1920, when the county had 28,852 residents. The current population is the smallest recorded in a census since Lee County was established in April 1873 from parts of Phillips, Monroe, St. Francis and Crittenden counties. The 1880 census turned up 13,288 residents.
Lonoke County, where Carter now resides, also was created in April 1873. It was carved from parts of Prairie and Pulaski counties. It had 12,146 residents in that 1880 census. Lonoke County’s population increased from 26,249 in 1970 to 68,356 in 2010. Lonoke County is characteristic of other counties surrounding Pulaski County in terms of growth. From 2000 to 2010, Faulkner County grew 31.6 percent, Lonoke County grew 29.4 percent and Saline County grew 28.2 percent.
Jay Barth, a political scientist at Hendrix College, divides the state into five electoral regions. Those regions are the fast-growing counties of northwest Arkansas that tend to vote Republican, the counties surrounding Pulaski County that also tend to vote Republican, Pulaski County itself with its reliably Democratic voters, the Delta with its Democratic tendencies and finally a swath of swing counties that run from the southwest to the northeast corner of the state (skipping that outlier known as Pulaski County).
With his move from Lee County to Lonoke County, Carter represents the demographic revolution. In the decade leading up to the 2010 census, there were 39 counties that gained population and 36 counties that lost population. While there were exceptions, the counties that lost population were mostly in east and south Arkansas. In some cases, the differences were dramatic. Benton County in northwest Arkansas saw its population increase 44.3 percent during the decade. Monroe County in the Delta saw its population decrease 20.5 percent. As a Republican, Carter also represents the political revolution in a state that has GOP majorities in its House and Senate for the first time in 138 years. At a time when Republicans at the national level struggle to attract young voters, more and more of this state’s emerging business and civic leaders identify with the GOP.
I’m reminded of a story I wrote in 1996 when I was the Democrat-Gazette political editor. Bill Clinton was running for re-election as president, and the newspaper published a series on 10 battleground states. One of the states I wrote about was Texas. Though I visited with then-Gov. George W. Bush following a speaking engagement in Waco, I focused on the changes taking place in Williamson County, which is adjacent to Travis County and the state capital of Austin. Williamson County was experiencing a surge in population and had moved from a once-Democratic county to a Republican stronghold.
What I saw in Williamson County, Texas, 16 years ago is what we’re seeing now in places like Lonoke, Faulkner, Saline and White counties. When Republican Ed Bethune was elected to the U.S. House from Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District in 1978, there wasn’t another elected Republican in the district. Now, they’re everywhere.
That brings us to the 2014 election for governor. Because we now truly live in a two-party state, it’s going to be crucial that Arkansans elect someone who can work with people in both parties. And because the demographic revolution threatens to split us into two states within a state, it’s going to be equally important to have a governor who understands all of the state’s regions and their residents.
To make things even more intriguing, it will be the first governor’s race since 1966 that has neither an incumbent nor a clear frontrunner in the field. In 1966, Gov. Orval Faubus decided not to seek a seventh two-year term. Republican Winthrop Rockefeller, who had lost to Faubus two years earlier, defeated Democratic nominee Jim Johnson that year to become the first Republican governor since Reconstruction. Consider what has happened since then.
In a state changing politically and demographically, the 2014 race for governor could be the most interesting in almost half a century.
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Freelance columnist Rex Nelson is the president of Arkansas’ Independent Colleges and Universities. He’s also the author of the Southern Fried blog at rexnelsonsouthernfried.com.
Editorial, Pages 17 on 11/28/2012