Several readers who are frustrated at the shortage of .22 rimfire ammunition believe the government is choking the market as a backdoor attempt at gun control.
That’s a popular theory that has taken root over the past year to explain ongoing shortages of .22-caliber rimfire ammo. Driving this theory are reports from credible news outlets, like Forbes, that various departments of the federal government are buying huge amounts of ammunition in non-military, non-law-enforcement cartridges.
Specific numbers of rounds differ depending on the source, but the prevailing rumor is that the Department of Homeland Security, Social Security Administration and others have ordered 1.6 billion rounds of ammo, including .22 long rifle.
The most conclusive article refuting this theory was in Military Times, titled “Homeland Security’s Ammunition Purchases Should Not Worry You.” It explained that DHS had requested price quotes for large volumes of ammo up to a certain amount - 750 million rounds - to be purchased over five-year periods.
That’s not a one-time purchase, but it’s still a lot.
Another article that appears on www.foxnews.com by Tom Stilson of Breitbart puts it into layman’s terms. Titled “The Great DHS Ammunition Stockpile Myth,”Stilson reported that the government bought about 160 million rounds of ammo in 2012 and about 105 million rounds in 2013. Averaged over five years, those numbers roughly equal 750 million.
According to the Military Times piece, it comes out to about 1,000 rounds per year for each uniformed officer in the various federal law enforcement agencies, just enough for training and practice.
Furthermore, the National Shooting Sports Foundation estimates that domestic ammo manufacturers produce about 10 billion rounds annually, and that DHS accounts for less than 2 percent of the annual market share.
Like all markets, the ammunition market rises and falls on rumors and projections. Many gun owners believe the government is squeezing the civilian ammunition market. In response, gun owners have altered their purchase patterns and caused a major market bubble.
For example, one of my fishing buddies lines up once a week at 6 a.m. with a crew of regulars at a local big-box retailer to await that store’s weekly ammo shipment. He said the store gets a new pallet of .22 LR ammo a week. Ordinarily, that would last a long time in a market where the average shooter buys one or two boxes per year. Instead, every man buys a case at a time, and the entire pallet sells in less than two hours.
Some buy that much because they are afraid they won’t be able to get it in the future. Others sell it online or at gun shows for a profit.
One reader who emailed Thursday espoused the government choke-off theory, citing the scarcity of .22 WMR (.22 magnum) ammo.
The problem with that theory is that the .22 WMR is not a service cartridge for any branch of the military or law enforcement, nor is it a practice round for the aforementioned. That also would not explain why there is no shortage of .17-caliber rimfire ammo.
There is no shortage of other ammo, either. Centerfire rifle and pistol ammo is abundant in all incarnations, including .223 Rem. and its twin, the 5.56 x 45. Those are standard military and law-enforcement cartridges. Ammo is also readily available in .308 Win. and 300 Winchester Magnum. Those, too, are common military and law enforcement cartridges. They would all be hard to find if the feds were snatching them up.
Shotgun ammo is abundant and available, and still relatively inexpensive. You can get a case of 12- and20-gauge dove and target loads for about $60. If the feds were making a run on ammo, the price of lead would skyrocket and prices for shotgun ammo would inflate accordingly. Likewise, there is no shortage of reloading components, including bulk bullets, primers or cartridge brass. Powder was scarce 6-8 months ago, but not now.
As for .22 LR ammo, you can get all of the subsonic variety you want. Of course, there is hardly any demand for that, as the only people who use it are ultra-serious squirrel hunters who put suppressors on their rifles so their shots don’t spook all the squirrels in a particular patch of woods.
If I were a betting man, and sometimes I am, I would bet that the small shops are like the big box stores. They sell all their .22 rimfire ammo as soon as it hits the floor to coteries of regular customers.
Sports, Pages 28 on 12/22/2013