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Predicting who will, not necessarily should, win Oscars

By Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

This article was published February 22, 2013 at 2:31 a.m.

none-of-our-experts-thinks-bradley-cooper-is-going-to-win-a-best-actor-oscar-this-year-but-hes-among-the-four-actors-in-silver-linings-playbook-who-were-nominated-in-the-acting-categories-the-others-are-robert-de-niro-best-supporting-actor-jennifer-lawrence-best-actress-and-jacki-weaver-best-supporting-actress

None of our “experts” thinks Bradley Cooper is going to win a Best Actor Oscar this year, but he’s among the four actors in Silver Linings Playbook who were nominated in the acting categories. (The others are Robert De Niro, Best Supporting Actor; Jennifer Lawrence, Best Actress; and Jacki Weaver, Best Supporting Actress.)

Contrary to rumor, director Tom Hooper didn’t always push his cameras right up into the faces of his actors in the Oscar-nominated musical Les Miserab...

— The 85th annual Academy Awards ceremony will be held Sunday night. As is our custom, we’ve assembled a panel of astute Oscar watchers (and one clueless movie critic) to guess what will win what. And while we encourage you to play along at home, we must remind you that gambling is prohibited and flash photography is dangerous to our performers. And I’ve been asked by the panel to remind you that these choices are their best guesses as to who will win - not who should.

This year’s panel comprises Levi Agee (LA), soon-to-be father of more than just his weekly Screengems column; Sam Blair (SB), retired Central High School college counselor, our resident armchair critic and a frequent contributor to our Blood, Dirt & Angels blog; Jennifer Boulden (JB), social media director for Aristotle Inc., who has realized, after more than a decade of following the Academy Awards races much too closely, the only thing she consistently gets right is baking her Oscar-shaped cookies for the telecast; Danny-Joe Crofford (DJC), the marketing and events director of War Memorial Stadium; Karen Martin (KM), MovieStyle founder and stakeholder in our weekly Home movies column; myself (PM); Jonathan Nettles (JN), KHTV’s perpetually tardy on-air film critic; our copy-desk chief and invaluable font of cinematic history, Joe Riddle (Joe); Blake Rutherford (BR), public servant, former Moviegoer blogger, and founder of Movies in the Park; Jay Russell (JR), formerly of North Little Rock, director of motion pictures (My Dog Skip, The Water Horse) and keeper of secrets; and the new kids, Regina Scruggs, program Director (and occasional film critic) at UALR Public Radio (KUAR FM 89, and KLRE Classical 90.5) and Lance Turner (LT), online editor, ArkansasBusiness.com.

BEST ACTOR

The nominees are: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables; Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln; Joaquin Phoenix, The Master; Denzel Washington, Flight.

Our panel says: LA: Day Lewis SB: Day Lewis JB: Day Lewis DJC: Day Lewis KM: Day Lewis PM: Phoenix JN: Day Lewis Joe: Day Lewis BR: Day Lewis JR: Day Lewis RS: Day Lewis LT: Day Lewis

Comments: SB: “Hugh Jackman’s a distant second.”

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees are: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Emmanuelle Riva, Amour; Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Naomi Watts, The Impossible.

Our panel says: LA: Lawrence SB: Lawrence JB: Lawrence DJC: Lawrence KM: Wallis PM: Riva JN: Chastain Joe: Chastain BR: Lawrence JN: Chastain RS: Lawrence JR: Riva LT: Chastain

Comments: JB: “I’ll go with conventional wisdom and say Jennifer Lawrence, though I’d like to see any of the others take it. I’d say Emmanuelle Riva has the best chance of taking it from her.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees are: Alan Arkin, Argo; Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook; Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master; Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln; Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained.

Our panel says: LA: Waltz SB: De Niro JB: Jones DJC: De Niro KM: Arkin PM: Hoffman JN: Jones Joe: Waltz BR: De Niro JR: Jones RS: Jones LT: Hoffman

Comments: JB: “The biggest tossup.” DJC: “Alan Arkin should win.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees are: Amy Adams, The Master; Sally Field, Lincoln; Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables; Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook.

Our panel says: LA: Hathaway SB: Hathaway JB: Hathaway DJC: Hathaway KM: Adams PM: Adams JN: Hathaway Joe: Hathaway BR: Hathaway JR: Hathaway RS: Hathaway LT: Hathaway

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees are: Michael Haneke, Amour; Ang Lee, Life of Pi; David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook; Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Our panel says: LA: Lee SB: Spielberg JB: Russell DJC: Russell KM: Haneke PM: Spielberg JN: Spielberg Joe: Spielberg BR: Spielberg JR: Spielberg RS: Spielberg LT: Spielberg

Comments: SB: “Should win: Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty.” DJC: “None of the nominees should win, because the Best Director didn’t get nominated.” Joe: “Spielberg … only because the Academy failed to nominate Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow.” RS: “Ang Lee might pull off an upset, but … I don’t think so.”

BEST PICTURE

The nominees are: Amour; Argo; Beasts of the Southern Wild; Django Unchained; Les Miserables; Life of Pi; Lincoln; Silver Linings Playbook; Zero Dark Thirty

Our panel says: LA: Argo SB: Argo JB: Argo DJC: Zero Dark Thirty KM: Amour PM: Amour JN: Argo Joe: Lincoln BR: Argo JR: Argo RS: Argo LT: Lincoln

Comments: PM: “Amour probably won’t win, but I do believe it has an outside chance. If I’m going to separate myself from the pack I have to take a flier.”

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE

The nominees are: Brave; Frankenweenie; Paranorman; The Pirates! Band of Misfits; Wreck-It Ralph

Our panel says: LA: Brave SB: Wreck-It Ralph JB: Brave DJC: Brave KM: Brave PM: Frankenweenie JN: Frankenweenie Joe: Wreck-It Ralph BR: Wreck-It Ralph JR: Brave RS: Frankenweenie LT: Brave

Comments: SB: “No idea; didn’t see any of them and probably won’t.” JB: “When in doubt, vote Pixar.” DJC: “Wreck-It Ralph should win.”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE PICTURE

The nominees are: Amour; A Royal Affair; Kon-Tiki; No; War Witch.

Our panel says: LA: Amour SB: Amour JB: Amour DJC: Amour KM: Amour PM:Amour JN: Amour Joe: Amour BR: Amour JR: Amour RS: Amour LT: Amour

PM: “Against all logic, I have a feeling A Royal Affair could win.”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The nominees are: Amour; Django Unchained; Flight; Moonrise Kingdom; Zero Dark Thirty.

Our panel says: LA: Zero Dark Thirty SB: Amour JB: Amour DJC: Django Unchained KM: Moonrise Kingdom PM: Zero Dark Thirty JN: Django Unchained Joe: Django Unchained BR: Amour JR: Moonrise Kingdom RS: Django Unchained LT: Django Unchained

Comments: LT: “Tarantino’s scripts are masterworks in their own right, Django included.”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The nominees are: Argo; Beasts of the Southern Wild; Life of Pi; Lincoln; Silver Linings Playbook.

Our panel says: LA: Beasts of the Southern Wild SB: Lincoln JB: Lincoln DJC: Argo KM: Lincoln PM: Beasts of the Southern Wild JN: Argo Joe: Lincoln BR: Lincoln JR: Lincoln RS: Argo LT: Silver Linings Playbook

Comments: RS: “A month back I would have said Lincoln, but that momentum thing again …”

MovieStyle, Pages 31 on 02/22/2013

Print Headline: Oscars’ twelve/Our panelists predict who will, not necessarily should, win

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