WASHINGTON - A year before Arkansans select a U.S. senator, the two candidates in the race are neck and neck in polls, and the themes that the Democrats and Republicans plan to stress in the campaign are being unveiled.
As the parties battle for control of the Senate, the race between U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, a Democrat from Little Rock, and U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton, a Republican from Dardanelle, is being watched nationally.
Four polls conducted in October show Pryor and Cotton within a few percentage points of each other. None shows either candidate having a majority of support.
Two polls were conducted by researchers at Arkansas universities, a third was conducted by a conservative firm and paid for by the Cotton campaign, and a fourth was conducted by a liberal polling firm and paid for by a liberal-leaning group.
University of Arkansas at Little Rock political science professor Joseph Giammo said the polls indicate Pryor’s base level of support. He said an incumbent with support from less than 50 percent of voters faces a tough race.
“It’s going to be harder to change people’s minds about an incumbent, for better or for worse,” Giammo said. “The challenger is a blank slate. There’s a bigger chance that support for Cotton moves; it could be in either direction.”
Giammo said the close polls point to a contentious campaign in 2014.
“It’s going to be a tough race,” he said. “It increases the chances it’s going to go negative [in tone] because the feeling is you’ve got to show voters why the other one is not right for the job.”BATTLE PLANS
Through advertisements and news releases, the main messages from both candidates are becoming clear.
Pryor has begun calling Cotton “reckless and irresponsible,” pointing to times when the first-term congressman cast votes at odds with other members of the Arkansas delegation. Pryor’s campaign has even set up a website at www.recklesstomcotton.com.
“I think that best describes Congressman Cotton’s voting record,” Pryor campaign manager Jeff Weaver said. “Our strategy [will] be to make sure people know who Tom Cotton is. He can’t hide from his record.”
Included on the website are Cotton’s votes on bills that resulted in a partial government shutdown and the expiration of the farm bill, as well as votes against the Violence Against Women Act, disaster relief for superstorm Sandy survivors and student-loan legislation.
“Voting for a shutdown is pretty reckless. It’s pretty irresponsible to vote against the farm bill,” Weaver said. “These things matter to Arkansans. These impact their lives.”
Cotton is focusing on Pryor’s ties to President Barack Obama and Pryor’s vote on the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
Cotton campaign manager Justin Brasell pointed to recent polls showing that a majority of Arkansans oppose the health-care law.
“I think it’s going to grow more unpopular as people understand what the effect on them is going to be,” Brasell said. “Definitely it will be amajor issue in the race.”
He said the Cotton campaign also plans to focus on the national debt and government spending.
“Tom Cotton supports reforming the budgeting and spending process. Mark Pryor has consistently opposed any spending reforms,” Brasell said.
WHAT’S NEXT
Arkansas State University at Jonesboro political science professor David Levenbach said that for either candidate to pull ahead, he’ll have to attract the likely voters who told pollsters that they haven’t made up their minds on the candidates yet.
“I’m surprised there’s not more undecideds,” he said.
Levenbach said if Pryor wants to improve his standing in the polls, he needs to talk and vote conservatively on social issues, and explain why and how the federal healthcare law benefits Arkansans.
Pryor, whose father, David, served as a governor and U.S. senator for the state, will stress family ties more than White House connections, Levenbach predicts.
“He probably wants to capitalize upon the history of his father, the memories of his father, who was extremely popular,” Levenbach said. “He essentially wants to disconnect from the national Democratic Party.”
He said Cotton won’t have to run from his own party affiliation in 2014, but could suffer if voters blame him for the federal government shutdown and the debt-ceiling impasse.
“I suspect what Cotton needs to do is ride the Republican wave,” Levenbach said.
Brasell said Cotton still needs to introduce himself to Arkansas voters. A lawyer and veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, Cotton hadn’t been heavily involved in the state Republican Party and had never held elected office until winning a seat in Congress in November.
“The senator has been running for office for 25 years and is about as well-known as you can get,” Brasell said. “Tom Cotton has been running for office for 18 months … and is not known outside his congressional district yet.”
Weaver said Democrats will also try to introduce Arkansans to Cotton and Cotton’s record.
“I want to educate voters about who Tom Cotton is, as well. I think that’s also how we widen the gap,” he said.
Arkansas, Pages 14 on 10/27/2013