HOT SPRINGS - Danza picked a good time to run the best race of his life.
Lightly raced Danza, in his two-turn debut, earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 102 for his stunning 4 3/4-length victory over Ride On Curlin in the $1 million Grade I Arkansas Derby on Saturday at Oaklawn Park.
Danza, who paid $84.60 to win, shipped to Kentucky on Sunday to begin preparations for the Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs.
“If the horse is doing well, and he tells us that the Derby is where he should be, then that’s where he’ll be,” said Aron Wellman, who heads Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, the colt’s ownership group.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Danza secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby with his victory in the Arkansas Derby - at odds of 41-1 - under a ground-saving ride from Joe Bravo.
A son of Street Boss, Danza ran 1 1/8 miles over a fast track in 1:49.68. The final time was just .13 slower than champion Will Take Charge needed to win the $600,000 Grade II Oaklawn Handicap for older horses 50 minutes earlier.
Will Take Charge received a 103 Beyer for his victory.
Beyer Speed Figures are the product of how fast a horse runs, modified by how fast the surface was on that given day.
Pletcher won last year’s Arkansas Derby with Overanalyze, who earned a Beyer of 88, the lowest for an Arkansas Derby winner since the inclusion of the handicapping tool in Daily Racing Form in 1992.
Danza, making only his fourth career start, ran 9 lengths faster than Overanalyze on the Beyer scale, and the colt’s speed figure compares favorably to several recent Arkansas Derby winners, including Curlin (105) in 2007, Gayego (103) in 2008 and Papa Clem (101) in 2009.
“Very proud of the way he ran,” Pletcher said.
The Arkansas Derby offered 170 qualifying points toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, with 100 going to the winner, 40 to second, 20 to third and 10 to fourth.
Points determine starting eligibility if more than the maximum 20 horses enter the race. At least 20 horses have entered the 1 1/4-mile race every year since 2004.
Danza (100 points) is sixth in the standings. Ride On Curlin (55) is also headed to the Kentucky Derby, while Tapiture, a disappointing fourth in the Arkansas Derby, is safely in the field with 52 points - assuming his connections opt to run.
Ride On Curlin and Tapiture are 12th and 14th, respectively, in the points standings.
Hoppertunity, who won the $600,000 Grade II Rebel Stakes on March 15, ranks eighth in Kentucky Derby points with 95 points.
Danza entered the Arkansas Derby with one victory, that coming in his July 12 career debut at Belmont Park in New York.
His 2-year-old season ended after his next race, a third-place finish in the $200,000 Grade II Saratoga Special Stakes on Aug. 11 at Saratoga in New York
Wellman said Danza came out of the Saratoga Special with a “little issue.”
Seven months later, Danza resurfaced in a first-level allowance/optional claimerMarch 1 at Gulfstream Park near Miami, where he finished third at 7 furlongs to earn a 79 Beyer.
“He’s a colt that we’ve always thought a lot of,” Pletcher said after the Arkansas Derby for a record fourth time. “I think if you look at his form, he’s never run anything but good races.”
Danza was beaten 7 1/2 lengths March 1, but Pletcher called the performance “perhaps, a sneaky good race,” because horses often struggle from off the pace over Gulfstream’s surface, notorious for being speed-favoring.
Pletcher decided to run Danza in the Arkansas Derby, rather than Saturday’s $750,000 Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., following a half-mile workout April 6 in Florida.
“Just seemed like that the more we put things together, the more it seemed like the Arkansas Derby was the race for us to step out and take our shot in,” Pletcher said. “We’re certainly very, very excited that we did.”Rick Lee’s Oaklawn recap SATURDAY’S RESULTS 3-12 (25 percent). MEET 136-481 (28.3 percent).
I dug a deep hole at the start of the meeting which proved too much to overcome. After the first 239 races had been run I was hitting at a .247 average, which would normally send a baseball player back to the minors. The second half was a more typical .319 but still a disappointing meeting from strictly a winner picking perspective.
PROFIT PLAYS
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee started the meeting at Oakalwn Park with a fictional bankroll of $1,000. He was given an additional $1,000 to work with after losing his original bankroll. He could make as many plays as he wanted each day.
For the first time in twenty-four years of Profit Plays I lost my original $1,000 before closing day and was forced to refinance my house to acquire enough capital to start over with a fresh $1,000. Like most optimistic horseplayers I remember the narrow defeats at nice prices, and a small profit earned in the second half of the season. And of course, if I had only a few more race days.
TOTAL BANKROLL $2,000 FINAL BANKROLL $1,018
Pletcher’s 4 by 4s
The average winning margin for Todd Pletcher’s Arkansas Derby winners is 4 1/4 lengths.
YEAR HORSE MARGIN 2014 Danza 4 3/4 2013 Overanalyze 4 1/4 2001 Balto Star 4 1/2 2000 Graeme Hall 3 3/4 SOURCE Democrat-Gazette Press Services
Sports, Pages 13 on 04/14/2014