Price tag for meat expected to grow

Virus in 28 states culling pig herds

Consumers can expect to pay more for meat at the grocery store as low supplies drive up prices.

Pork prices are expected to increase between 4 cents and 8 cents per pound during the next three months as the U.S. hog herd dwindles from prolonged exposure to porcine epidemic diarrhea virus, or PEDV. So far, 28 states have confirmed cases of the virus, which has diminished the national herd, according to the American Association of Swine Veterinarians.

In March, total pork supply declined by 575 million pounds from February, and exports decreased by 235 million pounds, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.

“The hog price forecast is [based] on current prices and expected tight supplies of market hogs,” Acting Secretary of Agriculture Krysta Harden said in the report.

“Looking at the price of pork, we’re expecting it to be high because of PEDV, and when you look at the overall price of protein, meat will rise because beef is also in short supply,” said Jerry Masters, Arkansas Pork Producers executive vice president.

The herd numbers in Arkansas have remained unchanged largely because the virus hasn’t reached the state, Masters said.

Beef production increased by 250 million pounds from February to March, with a rise in the total supply of 80 million pounds, according to the report.

Beef prices are expected to rise between 2 cents and 9 cents per pound during the next three months, with an expected decrease in price as supply increases.

“Arkansas had a good year and was one of the only states that had an increase in cattle going back into production,” said Arkansas Cattleman Association Executive Director Adam McClung. “We have a demand for beef and a supply that is slowly increasing.”

The upfront cost to raise livestock is still high because of high corn prices, which in part will drive chicken and turkey prices at the grocery store, as will supply and demand.

“When proteins are high it raises the price of all of them because the consumer won’t have as much to choose from,” Masters said. “Less product drives the price higher.”

Business, Pages 25 on 04/15/2014

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