Whether they base their predictions on climate data, atmospheric conditions in the Pacific Ocean that alter weather in the southern United States, sunspots, symbols found inside seeds or the thickness of animal fur, most weather prognosticators believe Arkansas is in for a cold, wet winter this year.
How cold it will get in December and January is up for debate.
The National Weather Service in North Little Rock -- which usually refrains from issuing long-range forecasts of more than seven days because of constantly changing weather patterns -- is calling for a bit more moisture than normal for the state this winter.
If that's the case, said meteorologist Jeff Hood, temperatures won't be as low.
"You can't get the cold extremes without dry air in place," he said.
Proof of that was seen this summer. The hottest area in the state lately has been the northeast, with temperatures climbing above 100 degrees last week. The same area has received less rainfall than the rest of the state, he said.
The El Nino phenomenon, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of South America, also plays a role in Arkansas' weather, Hood said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said this week that there is a 65 percent chance that the El Nino will form. If that happens, there's more chance that the state will see a wet winter.
There's also the Arctic Oscillation, a wavering amount of air pressure over the northern pole that causes cold air to dip into the South. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the oscillation's movement more than five to seven days in advance because it is constantly changing.
Mark Paquette, a climatologist with the national forecasting company Accuweather, said his data show that the subtropical jet stream -- a fast-moving band of air in the earth's Southern Hemisphere -- will increase this winter.
The jet stream will bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into Arkansas, he said. Couple that with cold air from the north, and it's a recipe for major ice storms, Paquette said.
"You will see more precipitation than normal this winter," he said. "You're looking at a big threat of ice."
The Farmers' Almanac, a 198-year-old publication based in Lewiston, Maine, gained some credibility last year when it forecast a bitterly cold winter. Other agencies, such as the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, had said it would be a mild winter with unseasonably high temperatures in January.
Last January, the state experienced a polar vortex when the jet stream dipped far into Arkansas, bringing frigid Canadian air into the state, along with a lot of snow and ice.
"We saw the cold long before anyone else did last year," boasted Sandi Duncan, managing editor of the Farmers' Almanac. "Arkansas will see another year of chilly, wet winter. Although it won't be as harsh, you need to be prepared."
Duncan said the Farmers' Almanac's forecaster uses a "secret formula" based on sunspots, planetary alignment and moon cycles.
"We're living in an age where you can tell the sex of a baby before it's born, but weather forecasters can't have a 100 percent accuracy rate," Duncan said. "They use high-tech things, but every so often Mother Nature throws them a curve ball."
Hood at the weather service in North Little Rock said he'll stick with data gleaned by the weather service rather than relying on sunspots, planets and folklore.
He's heard the tales of cutting open persimmon seeds to forecast weather. The innards of the seeds are supposed to reveal the weather: a spoon-shaped pattern indicates snow, a knife means ice and a fork means mild weather.
A University of Missouri horticulture specialist cut open several persimmons and found that half contained the spoon shape, according to a news release from the university's extension service.
"Looks like Ozarkers better dust off those snow shovels and get a warm coat," Patrick Byers, the horticulture specialist, said in the release.
Animal fur is another folklore weather indicator. Duncan said she's heard that bears' fur is thicker this year in Maine, meaning the animals are preparing for a cold winter. The pelts of skunks and deer are also believed to foretell weather. The thickness of a woolly caterpillar can be yet another indicator of the coming season.
"Everyone has their beliefs," Paquette said. "We don't necessarily look at planets or bear fur when making our forecasts. I find it fascinating, but I can't put too much stock in it."
Weather observer James Riggan of Leola in Grant County has been monitoring weather for 15 years, reporting daily temperatures and conditions for the National Weather Service in Little Rock.
"I don't put much faith in the animal stuff," he said. "Checking the thickness of fur on a skunk? I know to not mess with skunks."
Acorns? That's another thing. Riggan said he's seen a bountiful acorn crop in southern Arkansas this year. That means a mild winter, he said.
So while many of the weather prognosticators are calling for a wet, cold winter, Riggan thinks Arkansas will see a relatively mild December and January.
"I know that works," he said of the acorn crop.
As for using animals for forecasting, Riggan said only one critter -- a dog -- is truly reliable.
"I've always heard the best way to tell weather with a dog is to put him outside," Riggan said. "If he comes back in and he's wet, it's raining."
State Desk on 08/31/2014