A weather system originally forecast to drop up to 6 inches of snow on Arkansas on Monday became “disorganized” and lost much of its pep during the day, causing meteorologists to scale back on accumulation amounts.
Still, the National Weather Service issued winter-weather advisories for the southern two-thirds of the state through noon today and called for up to 3 inches of snow in some areas and a tenth of an inch of ice.
“This is one of the toughest ones to forecast,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Tabitha Clarke of North Little Rock. “The [system] is not behaving well.”
Forecasters originally expected a large upper-level low-pressure air mass to enter the state from the west and collide with cold air from the north. That upper-level air mass began breaking up and weakening overnight and into Monday morning, Clarke said. A cold front had also already arrived in Arkansas before the air mass hit the state, helping further weaken the system.
“It’s not as strong, and we’re seeing drier air associated with this than we first thought,” Clarke said.
The weather service said snow was expected to fall in a swath from Fort Smith southeast to Monticello. Freezing rain was forecast for the southern edge of the state, with the most accumulation of ice expected in the southeast corner.
Northern Arkansas was expected to see only flurries, she said.
The wintry outlook changed several times over the weekend, and on Monday, and forecasting models differed. The European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting expected 4 to 6 inches of snow could fall in central Arkansas. The Global Forecasting System called for a bit less. Arkansas television meteorologists also differed.
Social media added to the confusion, Clarke said. Whenever a new forecast came out, people often posted it to Facebook pages.
“The models varied quite a bit,” she said. “Even 24 hours before it was to arrive, we’d see different amounts from different models.”
In preparation for new precipitation, state Highway and Transportation Department crews pre-treated central Arkansas highways Sunday night in anticipation of any icing, spokesman Randy Ort said.
“We don’t really know this storm’s potential. Our idea is that as long as there is potential for precipitation and below-freezing weather, we have to be ready to go,” Ort said.
In Hempstead County, teams continued to search the Red River on Monday for a woman who leapt from an Interstate 30 bridge over the Red River near Fulton to avoid being struck by a sliding truck that had jackknifed.
In Little Rock, more than 150 traffic accidents on Friday evening were blamed on slick roads. City Manager Bruce Moore said in a news statement that public works crews continued to work 12-hour shifts Monday and into today, with 90 staff members on the day shift and 38 on the night shift.
“Around-the-clock shifts will continue until roads are clear,” he said in the statement.
Teams delivered additional sand and salt, he added.
The city’s Jericho Way Day Resource Center will continue to operate as normal, he said. Van drivers will run routes through the city to pick up anyone who needs a ride to a warming shelter.
The constant changes in the forecast frustrated Junior Marpel, the operations manager for the Russellville Street Department.
“We’re watching hour by hour,” he said “We have our crews on standby if it does start to do something.
“The forecast keeps jumping back and forth. We don’t know how to prepare for it.”
In Ozark, where a Feb. 5 ice storm glazed highways and caused the closure of Interstate 40 for hours, Mayor Carol Sneath gave up watching any weather reports.
“I stopped paying attention,” she said. “It kept changing. Our road crews are ready to go, but we don’t know how much or when. We’re waiting for the Lord to tell us what to do.”
Entergy Arkansas linemen and tree-trimming crews traveled south Monday after National Weather Service meteorologists called for a chance of freezing rain there. Crews also assessed materials at a warehouse in Little Rock, including transformers, line, cross ties and fuses, Entergy spokesman Sally Graham said.
Additional crews were sent to Louisiana and Mississippi to help in restoration efforts where more icing is expected, she said.
In Crossett, Mayor Scott McCormick II worried about the forecast.
“This is so hard to predict,” he said. “It’s changed three times today already.Now someone is calling for 2 to 4 inches of snow. If we get snow, it’s no problem. It’s the ice.”
The city has no snowplows or salt spreaders because snow is rare in the Ashley County town. Road crews will scatter sand on slick areas once ice has fallen, McCormick said.
The last time Crossett saw significant snowfall - at least 6 inches - was in 2000, he said. The last time the town’s streets were iced over was five or six years ago, McCormick said.
“We have our guys on standby if it gets too bad,” he said. “We haven’t really had a good snowfall in a while. It would be nice to see some snow. I guess we’ll see how this turns out.”
Front Section, Pages 1 on 02/11/2014