Spring merchandise is expected to arrive at the nation’s container ports this month at a volume 12.4 percent higher than that in March of last year, according to data gathered by Global Port Tracker and released Monday by the National Retail Federation.
“Retailers are bouncing back from the annual postholiday slowdown and getting ready for the surge in activity that comes each year as the weather warms up,” said Jonathan Gold, the federation’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Shelves are going to be well-stocked with everything from bathing suits to barbecues.”
Harsh winter weather slowed movement at some cargo ports recently. A shortage of labor and equipment had an effect as well, leading to congestion in some areas. The inventory now arriving at docks was ordered by retailers months ago, well before the worst of the winter storms hit.
Brian Yarbrough, an analyst with Edward Jones in St. Louis who covers a spectrum of retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp. and Kohl’s Inc., said retailers for the most part think business is going to improve, but it could be 30 to 45 days before they’ll know for sure. Wall Street has given everyone a free pass because of the weather, Yarbrough said.
“I’ve listened to a lot of [earnings] calls over the last month, and it seems like a lot of people are thinking it’s the weather,” he said. “Let’s hope it is because if it’s not, we’re going to see some pressure on the entire retail industry.”
In regard to ordering and stocking, retailers would rather be “light” with their orders and miss sales than be saddled with extra inventory, he said.
U.S. ports on both coasts monitored by Global Port Tracker handled 1.36 million 20-foot equivalent (TEU) container units in January, the latest month for which figures are available. January’s figures were up 5.3 percent from December and up 4.1 percent from January 2013. One TEU is a 20-foot-long container; container heights can vary.
The total for 2013 was 16.2 million TEU, up 2.3 percent from 2012’s 15.8 million. The retail federation is forecasting 4.1 percent sales growth in 2014, contingent on how U.S. government policies on economic issues affect consumer confidence.
“At the end of the day, it all depends on consumption,” Hackett Associates consulting firm founder Ben Hackett said in a statement through the federation. “We cannot escape the basic [tenet] of economics that demand determines growth or weakness.
“Somehow, the average consumer needs to be given the economic confidence to go out and spend. Without that, the economy will remain weak and no amount of tinkering by the Federal Reserve will have much of an impact.”
Global Port Tracker monitors the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Calif., Seattle and Tacoma, Wash., on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Va., Charleston, S.C., Savannah, Ga., Port Everglades, Fla., and Miami on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Business, Pages 23 on 03/11/2014