Revised numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show all but two of Arkansas’ metropolitan areas dropped in U.S. job growth rankings in 2013 compared with the year earlier.
The Job Growth USA website of Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business recently revised its preliminary rankings for 2013 based on updated Labor Bureau data released this week, shifting all but one of the earlier rankings for Arkansas locations downward, with Fort Smith dropping more than 200 places.
For 2013, the school’s database ranked 383 reporting metro areas out of a total of 428 in the nation, based on the percentage increase of nonfarm job growth over a 12-month moving average.
Arkansas economists said in January the preliminary rankings for 2013 could be subject to revision based on data released in March. Metropolitan statistical areas are geographical locations, usually based on cities and counties, used to compile and assess census and related statistical data.
Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, said the numbers shifted significantly, showing Arkansas didn’t add about 10,000 jobs over 2012 and 2013 for which the models had initially allowed. The revised data also shifted rankings in 2012.
Deck said the Labor Department adjusts its findings every March to make sure the samples and models it uses are well calibrated, a process called benchmarking. In Arkansas’ case, the job growth numbers were effectively halved, which was disappointing, she said.
“We’re still doing great,” she said. “It’s just not as dramatic as it appeared.”
The revised data ranked Midland, Texas, as No. 1, with the Provo-Orem area and St. George - both in Utah - ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. Preliminary data had shown Midland as No. 1 but placed Odessa, Texas, as No. 2 and Winchester, Va., as No. 3. Revised numbers show Winchester ranked at No. 80 and Odessa at No. 98.
According to the updated information, two Arkansas statistical areas, Jonesboro and Hot Springs, saw their job-growth rankings rise in2013, while the state’s remaining five lost ground. Three statistical areas Fort Smith, Texarkana and Pine Bluff, saw job losses during 2013.
James Howard, an economist with the Dallas office of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said preliminary data are gathered using samples from the State and Metro Area Employment, Hours and Earnings program that are later revised, or benchmarked, using Quarterly Census of Employment Wages counts based on Unemployment Insurance administrative records.
“Each year we will go back and make these revisions,” he said.
According to information provided by Howard, the percentage of revisions for the number of employees across all metropolitan statistical areas for 2013 ranged from -5.3 percent to 8.5 percent, with an average absolute percentage of 1.2 percent.
The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metropolitan statistical area - which includes Benton, Washington and Madison counties and a small part of Missouri - ranked highest in the state at No. 87 for 2013, down from No. 67 in 2012. The area showed a 2.41 percent increase in job growth for the year, adding a little more than 5,000 jobs for a total of 214,490. Preliminary data had ranked the area No. 4 in the nation.
The Jonesboro statistical area ranked No. 111, up from No. 198 in 2012. The area added a little more than 1,000 jobs, for a total of 51,850. Preliminary data had ranked the area No. 11 in the U.S.
The Little Rock-North Little Rock statistical area ranked No. 254, down from its 2012 ranking of No. 209. The area had a job-growth increase of 0.69 percent for 2013, with a total job count of 344,850, up 2,370 jobs from the year earlier. Preliminary data had ranked Little Rock-North Little Rock at No. 158.
Hot Springs ranked No. 286, up from No. 295 in 2012. Job growth was up 0.45 percent for the period. The area added 170 jobs, putting its job total for 2013 at 37,470. Preliminary data put Hot Springs at No. 326.
Michael Pakko, chief economist at the Institute of Economic Advancement at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said while some of the shifts in ranking were sizable, like Fort Smith’s, they didn’t erase the positive job growth the state has experienced, particularly in recent months.
“This lowered the trajectory, but we still have positive momentum,” he said.
Fort Smith sat at No. 341, down from No. 275 in 2012, with job loss of 0.56 percent. The area lost about 650 jobs for the period, for a total job count of 116,020. Fort Smith had a preliminary rank of No. 110.
The Texarkana statistical area, which includes Texarkana, Ark., and Texarkana, Texas, ranked No. 369 in 2013, down from No. 353 for the year earlier. The area saw a job loss of 2.52 percent, losing 1,420 jobs for a total number of jobs of 55,210. The Texarkana area’s preliminary rank was No. 340.
Pine Bluff ranked No. 372, down from No. 366 in 2012. The area saw a job loss of 2.84 percent, dropping about 1,000 jobs with a total job count of 35,320. Pine Bluff had ranked No. 370 based on preliminary numbers.
Business, Pages 27 on 03/20/2014