Tuesday's primary election has been low key although there are pockets of hotly contested Republican primaries throughout the state over the state's private-option Medicaid program, election experts said.
When the state was solidly Democratic, the winners were typically determined in the May primary or June runoff, not the November general election.
The development of a competitive two-party system in the state "takes a lot of the excitement out of the primary and places it in the general election," and "less interested and casual voters" will wait until the general election to cast their ballots, said Hal Bass, a professor of political science at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia.
Secretary of State Mark Martin, a Republican, has predicted that about 20 percent of the state's 1.62 million registered voters will cast ballots in this year's primary election -- down from 29 percent in the 2010 primary that included Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's challenge of Democratic U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
But it'll be higher, Martin predicts, than the 18.9 percent turnout in the 2012 primary.
More Republicans than Democrats will cast ballots in the primary election for the first time in Arkansas in a sign of the Republican Party's maturation, but "the game is clearly in November" during the general election, said Jay Barth, a professor of politics at Hendrix College in Conway.
The general election features a challenge by Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton of Dardanelle to Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor of Little Rock. There's also the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe of Searcy.
For several months, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Ross of Little Rock and Republican gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson of Rogers have been criticizing each other's proposed tax cuts, records in Congress, and other issues.
In Tuesday's primary, there are contested Republican primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, state treasurer and state auditor. Republicans in central Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District and southwestern Arkansas' 4th Congressional District will also pick their nominees for the general election. The Democrats have a contested primary for governor.
Barth said it's "crazy tough" to predict who'll win the Republican primaries for attorney general and state treasurer. A Talk Business/Hendrix College poll three weeks ago showed the majority of voters didn't know whom they would support in these contests, he noted.
"They are very, very fluid races" in which whoever has the most effective message delivered in the last few days of the campaign will win, he said.
Bass said that it's tough to predict primary races.
"The question is who is going to get their folks to show up," he said.
attorney general contest
Barth said there's a chance none of the three Republican candidates for attorney general will win a majority of the votes in Tuesday's primary, forcing a June 10 runoff between the two top vote-getters.
Attorneys Patricia Nation of Jacksonville, Leslie Rutledge of Little Rock and David Sterling of Little Rock are seeking the GOP nomination. The winner will face Democratic state Rep. Nate Steel of Nashville in the Nov. 4 general election to succeed term-limited Democratic Attorney General Dustin McDaniel.
Sterling said he would be driving around in his pickup campaigning this weekend, while Rutledge said she would be flying around the state with former Arkansas first lady Janet Huckabee, who ran unsuccessfully for secretary of state in 2002.
Nation said she felt like her message was "catching on" with voters and that she was looking forward to Tuesday.
Sterling and Rutledge said voters would be thinking about experience when they cast their votes.
"I think it's going to be probably who has the right experience for pushing back against this overreaching federal government," Sterling said. Rutledge said she was the candidate who was best prepared for the job because of her time as a deputy prosecutor and as counsel for former Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Nation said the most important issue voters consider when they head to the polls will be values, calling Pulaski County Circuit Judge Chris Piazza's ruling overturning the state's ban on same-sex marriage "judicial imperialism at its worst."
Piazza found those prohibitions to be a violation of the U.S. Constitution's guarantee of due process and equal protection in the 14th Amendment, ruling that there's no good reason to bar gay couples from marrying.
treasurer's race
In the GOP primary for state treasurer, state Rep. Duncan Baird of Lowell and Saline County Circuit Clerk Dennis Milligan of Benton are jousting for the right to compete against Democratic candidate Karen Garcia of Hot Springs.
Milligan accused Baird of receiving endorsements from some liberal bloggers and columnists, which he said conservative Republicans should consider when casting their votes.
For his part, Baird said he's received endorsements from across the political spectrum including the National Rifle Association, conservative bloggers and others "because of my experience and my record." He said Milligan was upset because the endorsements often mentioned what he said was Milligan's "erratic behavior and character issues" such as calling a constituent "dumb" last week on Twitter.
"Interaction between myself and an individual who opposes our campaign got a little out of hand. We've moved on, and we're focusing on my experience and finishing strong," Milligan said.
private option a factor
Barth said there's also been some ideological factionalism related to the private option in the Republican primaries, referring to the state's use of federal Medicaid dollars to purchase private health insurance for low-income Arkansans.
The private-option program has deeply divided Republicans in the Legislature.
That's spilled out into Republican primaries for some statewide, congressional and legislative races, particularly in challenges to state Sens. Bruce Holland, R-Greenwood; Missy Irvin, R-Mountain View; and Bill Sample, R-Hot Springs; and to state Rep. John Burris, R-Harrison, in his bid for a seat held by departing state Sen. Johnny Key, R-Mountain Home.
For the past two years, Holland, Sample and Burris have voted to authorize funding for the program, while Holland's challenger, state Rep. Terry Rice, R-Waldron, has voted against authorizing funding for the program.
This year, Irvin decided to vote against authorizing funding for the private option after voting for it last year.
The expansion of the Medicaid program, approved by the Legislature last year, extends coverage to adults with incomes of up to 138 percent of the poverty level -- $16,105 for an individual or $32,913 for a family of four.
An estimated 250,000 Arkansans are eligible for coverage. More than 120,000 people have obtained health-insurance coverage through the program since enrollment began Oct. 1.
Opponents of the private option often call it Obamacare because funding was made possible by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. Supporters maintain it's not Obamacare because it was created by Arkansans and the state obtained waivers from the federal government for the program.
The federal government will pay the full cost of covering the new Medicaid enrollees until 2017, when states will begin paying 5 percent of the cost. The state's share will then rise each year until it reaches 10 percent in 2020.
Outside groups are spending money on advertising and mailers in the state Senate races involving Burris, Holland and Sample, Barth noted.
One group opposing the private option created an independent expenditure committee in Arkansas.
That group, called Fayetteville-based Conduit For Action, reported spending about $25,000 on television advertising and mailers through May 10, most of it in the state Senate race between Mountain Home Republicans Scott Flippo and David Osmon, and Burris, assailing the private option backed by Burris and Osmon and opposed by Flippo.
Burris, who is on leave as political director for Cotton's U.S. Senate campaign, said it's tough for any of the three candidates to win a majority in the primary election, so he expects to be in the June 10 runoff.
Osmon, who is Mountain Home's mayor, said he's doesn't know whether there will be a runoff.
Flippo, an owner of an assisted living center in Bull Shoals, didn't return calls last week to his cellphone.
A supporter of Flippo, state Sen. Bryan King, R-Green Forest, said Friday that Flippo could win the primary without a runoff.
Tuesday's primary also features 18 contested Republican races for state House seats and four contested Democratic races for House seats.
In addition, Court of Appeals Judge Robin Wynne of Fordyce and attorney Tim Cullen of Maumelle are vying for a state Supreme Court seat.
During the 2010 and 2012 elections, Republicans in Arkansas made historic gains while linking Democrats to President Barack Obama. Democrats in Arkansas have often countered by linking themselves to Beebe and stressing their independence from the White House.
Information for this article was contributed by Sean Beherec and Claudia Lauer of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
SundayMonday on 05/18/2014
