Gay-marriage case to hover over polls

But experts differ on how strong an issue it will be for November’s elections

With the Arkansas Supreme Court reportedly months away from a ruling on the constitutionality of the state's gay-marriage ban, political watchers differ on what effect the case will have on the November election.

The high court has not set a schedule for filing briefs in the appeal of Pulaski County Circuit Judge Chris Piazza's May 9 ruling striking down the ban but issued a stay May 16 to prevent same-sex marriages in the state until its decision is handed down.

Piazza's ruling struck down the state's constitutional and statutory bans on same-sex marriages.

The state's Republican Party supports same-sex marriage bans. A spokesman for the state's Democratic Party said Democrats "don't want to politicize" the issue.

Piazza's ruling has spawned news conferences on both sides of the issue, as well as a condemnation from some lawmakers who accused him of acting in defiance of his oath to uphold the state constitution.

In interviews since Piazza's decision, some political experts have said gay marriage is likely low on the agenda for Arkansans, while others have said the case will guide the electorate toward more conservative candidates in November.

Jerry Cox, president of the Family Council, said he thinks the gay-marriage debate will be a "very big deal" to voters in November. He said Piazza's ruling has drawn more attention to the issue.

Cox said the Arkansas Legislative Council's taking up a resolution in support of the state's same-sex marriage ban and condemning Piazza will keep the issue on voters' minds. A group of Democrats and House Speaker Davy Carter, R-Cabot, blocked the introduction of the resolution May 16, but supporters plan to raise it again next month.

"I think people are going to be asking candidates 'Where do you stand on the issue of the redefinition of marriage,'" Cox said.

Hal Bass, a political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, said it is unclear how the fall election will be affected by the case. But, he said, voters will likely be more concerned about other issues, such as the economy and the implementation of the state's "private-option" program, which uses federal dollars to pay for health insurance for poor Arkansans.

Bass said he thinks the culture in the state has changed since 2004 when voters approved Amendment 83 to the Arkansas Constitution. That amendment defines marriage as between one man and one woman, and it passed with 753,770 favoring it and 251,914 opposing it.

Bass said it is unlikely that gay marriage will be the single issue that shapes voter behavior or motivates voters to go to the polls.

"I'd be surprised if gay marriage was the motivator for turnout that it was a decade ago," Bass said. "I don't think it has the intensity factor [this year] that it did."

Jay Barth, a Hendrix College political science professor, said Republicans will see some "marginal benefits" from drawing attention to the gay-marriage case because it will be a way to "activate" religious conservatives. But Barth said Democrats who are against gay marriage could also benefit in districts where support for traditional marriage is high.

Barth said "a lot" of Democrats in the state don't support same-sex marriage.

"In an odd way it gives them a way to differentiate themselves from national Democrats," Barth said.

Barth said he also thinks that voters will consider other issues, such as the economy, more important when deciding on a candidate. But if the Supreme Court rules on the case before the election, it could have more of an effect, he said.

The gay-marriage issue could also play more of a role in elections where the candidates are on opposite sides of the issue, but Barth said that would be unlikely in most districts.

Officials with the two major political parties in the state also weighed in on the gay-marriage case.

Lizzy Price, a spokesman for the Democratic Party of Arkansas, said in an email that "We don't want to politicize this issue since it's in the judicial arena at this time."

"Arkansas voters have spoken on this issue. From here, the courts will decide," she said.

Megan Tollett, executive director of the Republican Party of Arkansas, said in a statement that the "traditional family unit provides an ideal environment for rearing children."

"The Republican Party of Arkansas supports the traditional definition of marriage as a God-ordained, legal and moral commitment between a man and a woman, and we believe that marriage is the foundational unit of a healthy society. We believe in the sanctity of marriage and that the integrity of this institution should be defended, protected, strengthened, and nurtured at all levels of government," Tollett said.

Metro on 05/27/2014

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