Metroplan revenue far short of 'vision'

Without new ways to raise money, central Arkansas' long-range transportation plan will have $6.4 billion to work with -- and fall about $13.1 billion short of addressing identified needs through 2040, according to the region's planners.

Federal rules require them to submit a financial plan that matches road construction and other transportation projects with expected revenue.

The future "is not real bright in terms of funding available," said Casey Covington, a transportation planner for Metroplan, the long-range transportation planning agency for central Arkansas.

The agency's board of directors, composed of the region's participating mayors and county judges, is expected to approve the document, dubbed Imagine Central Arkansas, at its regular meeting next month.

Imagine Central Arkansas is the federally mandated update of the region's long-range transportation plan. The last update was Metro 2030, a $3.5 billion plan. In addition to forecasting the state's transportation needs, a U.S. Housing and Urban Development Department sustainable-community planning grant also allowed planners to figure out how the projects connect with the region's land-use development, economy, health of its residents and other factors.

Covington told the board at a meeting earlier this week that the latest plan could be "tweaked" when the Central Arkansas Transit Authority completes its own strategic planning document.

Transit boosters have said they hope it will lead to better transit options for the region and a dedicated tax to help pay for them. CATA now relies on contributions from Pulaski County and the cities it serves -- nearly $12 million in 2013. The agency also collects about $2.2 million a year in fares and receives about $2.7 million annually from the federal government.

The latest long-range transportation plan, as expected, axes the proposed North Belt Freeway from the region's list of priority projects. The latest cost estimate for the long-planned, interstate-quality highway in north Pulaski County was $638 million, which the plan concluded "brought the ability of anyone to fund the project into question."

The region encompassing Metroplan includes Faulkner, Lonoke, Pulaski and Saline counties, with a combined population of about 700,000 people. The region is expected to receive about $300 million in local, state and federal transportation money this year. But that amount is expected to decline to just under $200 million by 2040, according to the agency.

"Considering the trend in waning revenue streams, the region must contemplate a solution to combat rising costs associated with maintaining its transportation system," the latest plan concludes.

It cites three factors in the decline:

• New federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards are expected to reduce fuel-tax revenue in the region by $700 million through 2040.

• Elimination of general fund transfers to the federal Highway Trust Fund eventually will cost central Arkansas about $500 million.

• Expiration of the statewide, half-percent sales tax devoted to transportation projects. The region is expected to receive $584 million over 10 years. Another $13 million annually is expected to be distributed to local governments in central Arkansas. The tax, approved by voters in 2012, is expected to expire in 2023.

At the same time, construction will be further constrained by the expected rise in road-building costs. The plan anticipates it will cost $23.4 million to widen 1 mile of road in 2040, 134 percent higher than the $10 million it costs now.

The vision part of the plan identifies about $19.5 billion in transportation needs in central Arkansas through 2040. They include $8.25 billion in road maintenance and repair; $5.1 billion in road improvements; $3.89 billion in transit improvements; $1.13 billion in proposed transit service; $800 million to maintain existing service; and $330 million in bicycle and pedestrian improvements.

Over that period, however, the region is expected to receive $6.4 billion in revenue, including $2.82 billion in local money, $1.91 billion in federal money and $1.72 billion in state money. That funding under the plan will cover existing obligations, maintain what already is built and optimize existing networks while trying to identify new sources of money for major projects.

But "to meet central Arkansas' growing transportation needs and achieve the Vision, the significant gap between cost and available revenue must be closed," according to the document.

The plan makes no recommendation but identifies potential sources of revenue for the region including a half-percent sales tax for the four counties that could raise up to $1.7 billion through 2040 and the transfer of the sales tax on transportation-related goods such as new and used cars, which could raise $1.3 billion over the same period.

The vision part of the plan includes advanced transit options such as bus rapid transit, expanding the River Rail trolley cars to near-in residential neighborhoods, satellite transfer centers in west Little Rock and North Little Rock and a premium rail service.

It also includes completing the Arkansas River Trail Loop in Little Rock and North Little Rock, upgrading the Arkansas River Trail Grand Loop and beginning construction of the Southwest Trail, a bicycle trail connecting Little Rock and Hot Springs via abandoned railroad rights of way.

But planners noted that an oft-repeated question they fielded during the public comment period on the plan was:

"This is all great, but will it really happen?"

A section on 11/28/2014

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