Polling numbers show Republicans to have double-digit leads over their Democratic opponents in the state's two most prominent races, according to results from the annual Arkansas Poll released Thursday.
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tom Cotton, currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives, holds a 49 percent to 36 percent lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor -- the only Democrat in Arkansas' congressional delegation -- among people who when asked said they are very likely voters.
The remaining 15 percent supported another candidate, didn't know or declined to answer.
In the race for governor, Republican candidate Asa Hutchinson leads 50 percent to 39 percent among very likely voters over Democratic candidate Mike Ross, the poll shows. The other 11 percent supported another candidate, didn't know or declined to answer.
Even with the favorable numbers, a Hutchinson campaign spokesman, J.R. Davis, wrote in an email that the campaign will not rest on poll numbers but continue to campaign. A Cotton campaign spokesman, David Ray, wrote that Cotton and volunteers are working around the clock to boost voter turnout.
A Ross spokesman said a different poll showed Ross leading, though he didn't specify which poll. Political news website Talking Points Memo reported this week that Arkansas Democratic officials revealed an internal poll showing Ross with a 2 percent edge over Hutchinson.
Pryor spokesman Erik Dorey said the poll's methodology is flawed and does not accurately represent the Arkansas electorate.
Other polls have estimated the races to be tighter, with an NBC News/Marist Poll released Monday showing Cotton to hold a 45 percent to 43 percent advantage over Pryor among likely voters. The same poll found Hutchinson to have a 47 percent to 44 percent advantage over Ross. Poll researchers described the margin of error as 3.9 percentage points.
The Arkansas Poll, in its 16th year, is sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society at the University of Arkansas. The poll also asks a variety of questions about life in Arkansas and found a more negative outlook among Arkansans compared to recent years.
A record low percentage said the state is headed in the right direction in response to a question about whether the state is generally headed in the right or wrong direction. A total of 57 percent overall and 60 percent of very likely voters chose a positive outlook. In contrast, 25 percent overall and 27 percent of very likely voters said the state is headed in the wrong direction, results that were the most negative since 2003.
The poll, conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 27, has an overall margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. It consisted of 747 telephone surveys of adults. For very likely voters, the margin of error is 4.1 percentage points.
Other poll highlights:
The results showed a large gender gap in support for Cotton, said poll director Janine Parry, a political science professor at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. Among men, Cotton holds a 57 percent to 36 percent advantage over Pryor among very likely voters. But women favored the candidates equally, with both candidates receiving support from 42 percent of very likely voters.
Parry said that the 15 percent gender gap between men and women supporting Cotton is the largest of any race in which the poll has taken note of gender differences.
While the gap is larger for the Pryor-Cotton race, such gender gaps are not unusual.
"It averages, in a presidential year, anywhere from 8 to 10 percentage points," Parry said.
Arkansas voters support a ballot measure that would increase the state's minimum wage to $8.50 an hour by 2017. The minimum wage currently is $6.25 an hour. If passed, the ballot measure would first raise the minimum wage to $7.50 by Jan. 1, then increase it by 50 cents each year for two successive years. The measure has support from 69 percent of very likely voters, with 24 percent opposed. The other 7 percent said they didn't know or declined to answer.
More voters oppose than support reform to alcohol sales in Arkansas. Fifty-one percent of very likely voters oppose a measure that would allow alcohol sales in every Arkansas county, with 41 percent supporting it. Another 8 percent said they didn't know or declined to answer. The law would replace the county-by-county rules that now govern the sale of alcohol.
The presidential race is two years away, but any Republican nominee holds an edge over possible Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Asked if they support Clinton or an unnamed Republican nominee, 47 percent of very likely voters chose a Republican while 38 percent chose Clinton. Another 15 percent said they supported another candidate, didn't know or declined to answer.
Among all persons polled, an unnamed Republican nominee was favored by 42 percent compared to 41 percent supporting Clinton.
Twenty-one percent of all people polled said they support gay couples being allowed to marry legally. The percentage decreased slightly from 2013, when 23 percent supported gay marriage. The Arkansas Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling this year on a legal challenge to state laws against gay marriage and a voter-approved constitutional amendment that defines marriage as between a man and a woman.
Interviews were conducted by the Issues & Answers Network Inc. Among those polled, 25 percent used a cellphone for most or all of their calls.
NW News on 10/31/2014