The index of U.S. leading economic indicators rose for the seventh consecutive month in August as stronger job growth and an increase in consumer confidence gave a lift to the world's largest economy.
The Conference Board's index, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, increased 0.2 percent in August after a revised 1.1 percent advance the prior month that was bigger than initially reported, the New York-based group said Friday. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 0.4 percent.
"The leading indicators point to an economy that is gaining traction but most likely won't repeat its stellar second-quarter performance in the second half," Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said in a statement.
Rising demand for automobiles is spearheading gains in consumer spending that are prompting manufacturers to rev up assembly lines. Less strict lending rules and bigger wage gains as the job market strengthens will probably give the expansion added momentum heading into 2015.
"We're seeing a generally positive trend," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Fla. "The economy's getting better gradually over time. We've still got a long way to go, though."
Estimates from 49 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from gains of 0.2 percent to 0.7 percent.
Three of the 10 indicators in the leading index -- the interest-rate spread, new orders and credit index -- contributed to the increase last month, Friday's report showed.
The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.2 percent in August after a 0.1 percent gain in July. The coincident index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production, measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions.
The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.3 percent in August after a 0.3 percent increase the month before.
The labor market has shown signs of strength this year, with employers adding an average of 215,000 jobs a month through August, according to the Labor Department figures. The unemployment rate has fallen to 6.1 percent from 6.6 percent at the start of the year.
Other elements of the economy remain challenged. Gains in wages since 2009 have barely kept up with a similarly tepid pace of inflation. The real value of hourly pay climbed by 0.4 percent on average over the past 12 months.
The housing-market rebound also is unfolding erratically. Residential construction starts slumped in August after reaching the highest level in almost seven years, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, pointing to an uneven pickup that will limit housing's contribution to economic growth.
Information for this article was contributed by Seth Perlman of The Associated Press.
Business on 09/20/2014