HONG KONG -- China's high-spending gamblers are looking to bet outside Macau amid a government assault on corruption and extravagance, and that's boosting casinos from the Philippines to the Las Vegas Strip.
Visitors from China are lifting gambling growth in Las Vegas while casinos in Melbourne and Manila are fighting over Chinese VIPs with frills from private jets to suckling pigs. That's while Macau, the one place in China where casinos are legal, has suffered three straight months of declining gambling revenue as the anti-graft crackdown shows no signs of abating.
MGM Resorts International, the largest owner of casinos on the Las Vegas Strip, and Wynn Resorts both posted recent results that beat analysts' estimates. That was enabled by strong growth in baccarat, a card game favored by Chinese gamblers, even as their Macau businesses suffer weaker growth.
"Since the scrutiny has intensified, gamblers are instead spending time away from Macau," wrote Praveen Choudhary, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, in a report released Monday. "Rich and famous gamblers are lying low and junkets have turned cautious in extending credit to worthy people."
Casinos' revenue on the Las Vegas Strip has gained 3.7 percent to $3.7 billion in the year to end July, driven mainly by a 14.4 percent jump in baccarat revenue, according to Robert Shore, a Las Vegas-based analyst at Union Gaming Group. This indicates "an inverse correlation" with the weaker performance from high rollers in Macau, he said in an email.
"Las Vegas is a brand that is clearly world-renowned and that people continuously want to come to," Dan D'Arrigo, Chief Financial Officer of MGM, said when asked about Chinese gamblers.
Macau remains the world's biggest gambling hub despite the recent declines, generating $45.2 billion of casino revenue for the city in 2013, seven times more than the Las Vegas Strip and dwarfing the $36.5 billion for the United States as a whole.
Still, revenue from VIPs in the Chinese city could continue to contract for a further six to nine months, according to Morgan Stanley's Choudhary. "The impact on Macau gaming lagged the decline of other industries like lodging, food and beverage, events, and luxury retail."
Chinese hotel growth was immediately affected by China's anti-extravagance campaign that started in the last quarter of 2012, he said.
Macau casino operators dropped in Hong Kong trading Wednesday, as Nomura Holdings Inc. analysts led by Louise Cheung said the city's gross gaming revenue could contract 1 percent, and that "consensus estimates are too high." Nomura's "bear case" is that VIP revenue could drop 12 percent next year, according to a research note dated Tuesday.
Junket operators, which organize casino trips for wealthy Chinese VIPs, are bringing those gamblers to other locations such as Australia, Europe or the United States, Credit Suisse analysts Kenneth Fong and Isis Wong said. That allows the players "to avoid frequent appearance in Macau in light of the current sensitive political situation," they said in a research note Sept. 12, after meeting with junket and casino companies.
Those junkets are also being lured away by regional competitors including Bloomberry Resorts Corp.'s Solaire resort in Manila, which offers bigger commissions than in Macau, according to Anthony Wong, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UBS, in a Sept. 2 report.
Galaxy, which runs six casinos in the former Portuguese enclave, said Macau will continue to benefit from being a bus or ferry ride away for many mainland Chinese.
"High-stakes Chinese gamblers go to overseas casinos for a new experience," Francis Lui, Galaxy's deputy chairman, told reporters last month. "Macau will continue to benefit from its close proximity to China."
To fight the decline in revenue from high-stakes bettors, Macau casinos are allocating more resources to luring so-called mass-market gamblers, who bet in cash.
Mass-market gamblers tend to provide wider margins than high rollers as VIP customers typically rely on credit from junket operators, who in turn collect commissions from casino companies.
Information for this story was contributed by Christopher Palmeri, Billy Chan and Moxy Ying of Bloomberg News.
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