A strong arctic front will surge across the state this weekend, dropping temperatures into the lower 20s and bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow to the state.
The frozen precipitation is expected to begin falling in Northwest Arkansas shortly after noon Sunday and blanket most of the state by late evening into Monday morning.
Northeast Arkansas could see 2 to 4 inches of snow and sleet before the system leaves the state Tuesday, said National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Goudsward of North Little Rock. Areas north of Interstate 40 are forecast to receive up to 2 inches of snowfall, and south Arkansas could see freezing rain.
"I don't think anyone in the state is missing out on this one," Goudsward said.
It's been a difficult storm system to forecast, meteorologists said. Several different weather models varied vastly in the days leading up to the storm, ranging from predicting just a slight dusting to more than a foot of snow.
One model provided by a European weather service has predicted that 12 to 14 inches of snow would fall on Hot Springs, for example.
"We're hesitant to throw out exact accumulation predictions yet," said National Weather Service meteorologist Zach Maye of Memphis. "The system is setting up, but it depends on what the temperatures are and how cold the air is as the upper-level wave passes over.
"We do know it will get cold. We were teased with warmer, springlike weather recently. But now we're getting back to winter."
Forecasters expect the winter storm to dump snow along a swath from eastern Kansas into Arkansas and then eastward to North Carolina. They predict Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina will see freezing rain and sleet as the system moves through.
The leading edge of the wave will pass through Arkansas today. Temperatures will drop from about 65 degrees this afternoon in central Arkansas to the lower 20s by nightfall. East winds will pick up, blowing from 10 mph to 20 mph and dropping wind chills into single digits. Wind chill is the calculation that describes the combined effect of wind and low temperatures on exposed skin.
The winds will calm before any freezing rain begins, meaning ice-laden power lines are less apt to snap under the strain of the additional weight, Goudsward said. Still, he said, some areas in northern Arkansas could see a quarter of an inch to a half-inch of ice on lines.
"That could be enough to bring down some lines," he said.
Arkansas Highway and Transportation Department crews have loaded trucks with salt brine, installed plows on the trucks and have prepared to head to where they are needed, said Highway Department spokesman Danny Straessle.
"We will be able to adapt quickly," he said. "Our game plan going into the weekend is to get our timing down to the minute. You won't see us out as early as previously. We want to do the most beneficial work."
Straessle said the department has contracted with a private forecasting service and uses its reports, along with the National Weather Service updates, to pinpoint where icing will occur.
He said in the past, crews would pre-treat roadways with salt pellets, only to have the pellets wash away in rain.
"We're going to get more detailed county-by-county forecasts," he said. "It'll be 'zero hour' when the trucks roll out. Our goal is to keep the roads open as quickly as possible. We want to stay ahead of the storm, not just endure it."
Motorists can check on road conditions by using the Highway Department's website at www.idrivearkansas.com.
Customers bought de-icer at the Jonesboro AutoZone store on East Highland Drive on Friday in anticipation of the approaching storm, said store employee Jose Colindres.
Sales of ice scrapers, however, were still slow.
"We've got all kinds here," he said of the store's inventory of tools needed to clear ice off windshields. "If the ice truly comes, we'll see sales pick up quickly. People wait until the last minute."
Customers planned ahead at Ite's Family Entertainment on John F. Kennedy Boulevard in North Little Rock on Friday evening. The store offers DVDs and video games for rent.
"It's going to keep picking up," manager Skye Strickland said. "We always get a rush when the forecast says it's going to snow. People grab stuff up."
Snowy forecasts are good for business, Strickland said. But there's also a downside.
"After the weather hits, no one can get out, and no one comes into the store," he said.
Whatever falls Sunday and Monday is likely to stick around for several days, Goudsward said. Temperatures won't climb above freezing until Thursday.
"We're going to have a cold week," Goudsward said. "This is our one week of real winter in Arkansas."
State Desk on 02/14/2015