Remember that time Herman Cain led the GOP field in the quest for the White House? Or when Michele Bachmann briefly was Iowa's first choice?
In the last presidential cycle, nearly every Republican candidate had his or her moment in the sun as the party searched for an alternative to the one whom voters wound up choosing. Some serious contenders flamed out early, while some upstarts lasted longer than expected.
That jockeying might be in the GOP's rear-view mirror as a new opportunity and a new crop of candidates starts to take shape. And it also serves as a reminder that it's one thing to step into the sunlight of voter and media attention and another to stay there.
Unlike in 2012, the 2016 Republican primary is shaping up as an open race with a deep bench of viable contenders. Each is looking to gain a position in the field that provides enough momentum to attract top support talent along with the donors needed to compete over the long haul.
But too much sun, especially too soon, can burn. The challenge for candidates at this stage of the game is to catch on without being perceived as the front-runner. There is still a year to go before voters in Iowa, the first caucus state, officially weigh in on the choices. And there are drawbacks to getting out ahead of the pack this early in the process: The media vetting begins in earnest and opposition scrutiny increases, as does the prospect of dirt being dished. Steadiness may go unnoticed in the face of such attention, but any stumbles are magnified.
The challenge is especially great for first-time presidential candidates. That's why observers say Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker intends to contend for second-best at this stage of the game--that is, to be a consensus candidate with a foot in different camps who can be there for voters whose first choices don't pan out. But Walker is picking up momentum faster than many had imagined. There are benefits to gaining campaign steam, to be sure, but those risks are real.
A recent poll in Iowa found him leading the field with 15 percent of the support, a sizable chunk for a new candidate this early on. (Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was right behind him with 14 percent.) The influential Drudge Report has been spotlighting the governor and promoting its own reader poll showing him far ahead of the pack. Recently, basking in the glow of accolades for a speech he gave in Iowa, Walker launched Our American Revival, an organization with key advisers and a staff with national experience that lets him raise money, build a political team, and travel around promoting his message.
Walker is certainly on a roll. Which is why he might be well advised to keep his head down.
Still, "it's always better to be ahead than behind. Walker has got a tremendous boost, and I'm sure it's driving [Jeb] Bush crazy," says Larry Sabato, the director of University of Virginia's Center for Politics, noting that Walker's rise signals that primary voters are searching for an alternative to the man considered the establishment pick now that Mitt Romney has taken himself out of the running.
Sabato notes that candidates like Walker aren't going to refuse an early lead as it helps recruit staffers and donors and indicates viability. And with consecutive presidential losses in the rear-view for the GOP, early signs of viability might encourage backers to hang on for the long haul. But good news can be fleeting. Walker's rise "is an indicator of something, but that something doesn't have to last."
One of the most compelling feathers in Walker's cap is that he won three races (including a recall election) in four years in a blue state, an achievement that should have wide appeal in the party. His successful fight against government-employee unions allows him to campaign as a fighter who doesn't back down, which especially attracts conservatives. He is positioning himself as a "bold" reformer and a fresh face able to compete against an old name (Hillary Clinton, specifically, and also Bush). But Walker is also going to be pushed beyond those adjectives and challenged to make his freshness last for at least a year.
One of those tests came Feb. 1, when he was asked in an interview with ABC News about his strategy for taking on terrorists in Iraq and Syria. When Walker called for an "aggressive" approach, Martha Raddatz stopped him. "But what does that mean?" she asked. The governor said the United States had to be prepared to put boots on the ground in Syria, and shouldn't take anything off the table. Walker hasn't officially announced his candidacy--no candidate has--but that doesn't lessen the calls for specifics when it comes to policy positions.
In unveiling his state budget last week, Walker proposed steep cuts to the state university system, eliciting objections from educators and evoking past budget fights that led to his claim to fame. The budget proposal helps the governor build a broader national message, but it also invites criticism as the party works to attract younger voters.
Walker's union battles figure to play well in Iowa, where voters seem to have taken an interest in what he has to offer. "Scott Walker is someone I think Iowa Republican activists have had an eye on for a while, and he is known to us because of the recall," said Craig Robinson, a former political director for the Iowa GOP and current editor of the Iowa Republican. "Having endured that, he's getting the home field advantage a little bit from being so close."
With that in mind, Robinson noted, Walker has already been through considerable vetting in Iowa and elsewhere, as his recall became somewhat of a nationalized election. "I would be ecstatic to have these poll numbers this early," he said. "It will help fundraising, which is such a critical thing in these campaigns. Being out front early will really help him get his campaign off to a good start."
Still, there is a long time to go between now and when Iowans actually vote. Polls fluctuate, and often respond to whoever is in the news.
"The idea that one speech is going to make someone the nominee is not an accurate understanding of the way Iowa works," says Matt Beynon, a spokesman for Rick Santorum, who narrowly won the caucuses in 2012 by slowly and steadily making his way around the state's 99 counties. "It doesn't mean someone in the lead can't win it, but they're going to have to earn it."
Steve Deace, a talk radio host and an influential Iowa Republican whom many candidates work to court, has a related view: "Walker has something no other Republican contender has: substantive victory over the American left. But he's still going to have to make his case like everyone else, and he's just now getting vetted."
Editorial on 02/15/2015