Improving drought conditions across much of Arkansas have forecasters predicting the state will be completely free of dry conditions within weeks.
It's a good sign for farmers, who have already begun planting wheat and will soon begin preparing for other crops.
"It's good to have water in the bank, so to speak," said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center, an agency based at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln that issues weekly drought assessments.
"Arkansas looks to be heading into the spring in good shape."
The center reported that 76 percent of the state was drought-free the past week, compared with 36.9 percent the week before. Only 9 percent of the state -- all or portions of 12 northeast Arkansas counties -- is now in moderate drought, meaning the area is 1 to 2 inches deficient of rainfall over a 30-day period.
The previous week, 14.4 percent of the state earned the moderate drought classification. Another 49 percent was considered abnormally dry, meaning the area was up to 1 inch short of rain during a 30-day period.
Several storm systems brought in rain over the past week, said National Weather Service meteorologist Chris Buonanno of North Little Rock. Up to 4.5 inches of rain fell in an area between De Queen and Batesville during two systems, helping reduce drought conditions there.
Buonanno said 1 to 1.5 inches more rainfall is expected in much of the state by mid-January.
"I think we'll see the drought clear the state within the next week or so," he said.
A year ago, the state saw a similar pattern of moisture early in the year. In January, 96.6 percent of the state was drought-free. By mid-July 2014, a time when drought is generally at its worst, only 21.5 percent of the state was considered abnormally dry or in moderate drought.
Last year's moisture helped keep wildfires down, said Adriane Barnes, a spokesman for the Arkansas Forestry Commission.
Wildfire behavior in 2014 was quite low compared with other years, Barnes said in a news release. The commission began keeping wildfire records in 1935.
"It's been a low activity trend for wildfires over the last two years," State Forester Joe Fox said in the release. "The biggest thing that this tells us is that Arkansas wildfires can happen anytime the weather changes. Low rain, low humidity and a little wind can happen here any time of year."
Barnes said the most active times for wildfires are in February and March, when dry conditions and gusty winds occur, and again in August, September and October.
Farmers aren't yet too impressed with the early moisture this year.
"The drought conditions now are a non-issue," said Eugene Terhune, an extension agent for the University of Arkansas' Cooperative Extension office in Woodruff County. His county is in the center of the 12-county area the Drought Mitigation Center has classified as moderately dry.
"This time of year, the drought doesn't affect our farmers yet," he said. "The only thing out there now is wheat."
He said farmers do take note, however, of early conditions to give them any indications of how dry conditions may become later on in the year.
Early seasonal moisture could be misleading in some cases, though.
On Jan. 12, 2012, the state was 86 percent drought-free, and on April 24, 2012, it improved to 100 percent.
But two months later, things began drying out. By Aug. 7, 2012, 53 percent of Arkansas was in "exceptional drought," meaning it was 5 inches or more deficient of rainfall over a 30-day period.
Long-range forecasts show that Arkansas should receive plenty of rain over the next three months, Fuchs said.
"We're seeing some fairly good indication with our models that your neck of the woods will get above-average rain through March," he said. "It's good to get the moisture in the winter. Water demands are lessened, temperatures are cooler and you can see an immediate impact.
"As we were even doing our [weekly] assessments in September, Arkansas stood out to me. I think as we got into winter, it was evident that it would not take too much to help the state. Arkansas should be clear of any drought this summer."
State Desk on 01/12/2015