Greece's debt crisis explained

Backers of a no vote in Sunday’s referendum on new austerity measures for Greece rally Wednesday in the port city of Thessaloniki.
Backers of a no vote in Sunday’s referendum on new austerity measures for Greece rally Wednesday in the port city of Thessaloniki.

Greece, the weak link in the eurozone, is inching closer to defaulting on its debt. The country has been in a long standoff with its European creditors on the terms of a multibillion-dollar bailout. If the country goes bankrupt or decides to leave the 19-nation eurozone, the Greek debt crisis could create instability in the region and reverberate around the globe.

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What's the latest?

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said in a letter to creditors Tuesday that Greece was "prepared to accept" a deal offered over the weekend, with small modifications on issues like pension cuts and tax increases. In a televised address on Wednesday, he urged Greeks to vote "no" in an upcoming referendum on the deal in an effort to improve his negotiating position with European officials.

After Tsipras' speech, European finance ministers said they will wait for the outcome of the referendum before making decisions on how to proceed.

On Tuesday, the country missed a Tuesday deadline to repay roughly $1.7 billion, to the International Monetary Fund.

Did Greece default on its debt?

When borrowers -- whether they are countries, companies or individuals -- do not pay their debts on time, they are in default. For practical purposes, Greece has defaulted.

The IMF, however, does not use the term default. It instead places countries that miss their payments in what it calls arrears.

A default, even when it is not called one, is an event that can have serious repercussions for a country's economy and relations with other nations. Defaults can upset financial markets, create uncertainty for other lenders, and generally crimp economic activity.

What happens next?

Sunday's referendum will test whether Greek citizens want to stay in the eurozone. New elections could also be held if Greece's financial situation worsens. Or Greece could test the willingness of Russia or China to help should talks with Europe falter.

Some people now say that the real deadline is late July, after all the warnings that Tuesday was the make-or-break day. July is when Greece owes the European Central Bank a$3.86 billion payment. If there is no international bailout program in place by that time, and little chance of such a program being in the works, the central bank at that point would probably have to finally take Greek banks off life support.

How does the crisis affect the global financial system?

Since Greece's debt crisis began in 2010, most international banks and foreign investors have sold their Greek bonds and other holdings, so they are no longer vulnerable to what happens in Greece. (Some private investors who subsequently plowed back into Greek bonds, betting on a comeback, regret that decision.)

Meanwhile, the other crisis countries in the eurozone, such as Portugal, Ireland and Spain, have taken steps to overhaul their economies and are much less vulnerable to market contagion than they were a few years ago.

What's more, the European Central Bank has erected powerful firewalls, by buying huge amounts of eurozone government bonds and by promising to purchase more if needed, making governments less subject to market whims.

Still, Greece may be linked to the world financial system in ways that may not be evident until it defaults on its debts or its banks collapse. So there is still potential for serious, unpredictable consequences.

How likely is there to be a 'Grexit'?

At the height of the debt crisis a few years ago, many experts worried that Greece's problems would spill over to the rest of the world. If Greece defaulted on its debt and exited the eurozone, they argued, it might create global financial shocks bigger than the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Now, however, some people believe that if Greece were to leave the currency union, known as a "Grexit," it wouldn't be such a catastrophe. Europe has put up safeguards to limit the so-called financial contagion, in an effort to keep the problems from spreading to other countries.

Greece, just a tiny part of the eurozone economy, could regain financial autonomy by leaving, these people contend -- and the eurozone would actually be better off without a country that seems to constantly need its neighbors' support.

Others say that's too simplistic a view. Despite the frustration of endless negotiations, European political leaders see a united Europe as an imperative. At the same time, they still haven't fixed some of the biggest shortcomings of the eurozone's structure by creating a more federal-style system of transferring money as needed among members -- the way the United States does among its various states.

Exiting the euro currency union and the European Union would also involve a legal minefield that no country has yet ventured to cross. There are also no provisions for departure, voluntary or forced, from the euro currency union.

Investors may also still be betting that Greece will reach a deal with creditors before or after the referendum, particularly because polls indicate the majority of Greeks favor sticking with the euro.

If Greece has received billions in bailouts, why is there still a crisis?

The money was supposed to buy Greece time to stabilize its finances and quell market fears that the euro union itself could break up. While it has helped, Greece's economic problems haven't gone away. The economy has shrunk by a quarter in five years, and unemployment is above 25 percent.

The bailout money mainly goes toward paying off Greece's international loans, rather than making its way into the economy. And the government still has a staggering debt load that it cannot begin to pay down unless a recovery takes hold.

Many economists, and many Greeks, blame the austerity measures for much of the country's continuing problems. The leftist Syriza party rode to power this year promising to renegotiate the bailout; Mr. Tsipras said that austerity had created a "humanitarian crisis" in Greece.

But the country's exasperated creditors, especially Germany, blame Athens for failing to conduct the economic overhauls required under its bailout agreement. They don't want to change the rules for Greece.

As the debate rages, the only thing everyone agrees on is that Greece is yet again running out of money -- and fast.

Information for this article was contributed by James Kanter, Jim Yardley, Jack Ewing, Niki Kitsantonis, Suzanne Daley, Liz Alderman, Peter Eavis and Andrew Higgins of The New York Times.

A Section on 07/02/2015

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