As we enter our 21st consecutive liberal duck season, it seems the good times will never end.
Maybe they won’t, but 21 years is a long time. Many duck hunters aren’t much older than 21, and those that are 32 don’t remember a season that wasn’t 60 days long.
One thing is certain, though. We’ll almost certainly have a 22nd consecutive liberal season in 2016-2017, and I’d buy a $2 win ticket to bet that the string will go at least to 25.
Misplaced optimism? My glass isn’t half-full or half-empty. My glass is refillable, but I know that a good thing doesn’t last forever. I also know that wildlife is resilient. It ebbs and flows in tune with the immutable rhythms of time as long as animals have places to eat, breed and raise their young.
Because of late rains, the number of breeding ponds in the northern Great Plains and prairie pothole regions of Canada were down 12 percent this year compared to last year. That affected reproductive success of waterfowl that nest early, such as mallards and pintails, said Luke Naylor, waterfowl biologist for the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission. That might result in fewer mallards migrating south next year, and it prolongs the pintail’s problems.
On the other hand, Naylor said the late rains arrived on time for late nesters like blue-winged teal. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s annual waterfowl survey, blue-wing numbers flatlined this year compared to last year, but the survey was finished when the rains finally arrived. There might be a lot more blue-wings in the fall flight than the survey indicates.
Naylor came into his job in 2007, when the Duck Factory was in a long drought. In his first presentation to the commission, he was challenged to be proactive toward a duck depression that many wildlife managers believed was inevitable. The result was a proposal to divide Arkansas into two duck zones with different dates, a proposal to lift a ban on spinning wing decoys and a proposal to increase the bag limit on mallard hens to two.
As one who prefers to err on the side of the resource, I opposed lifting the spinning wing ban and adding an extra hen to the bag limit. The commission lifted the ban and added the hen.
A funny thing happened. As in, nothing. Ducks came, hunting was fine, and it got even better in subsequent years as conditions improved in the Duck Factory.
Habitat conditions slipped a bit this year, but I’m not falling for it just yet, and neither is Naylor.
“I’m not going to jump on board with an alarmist message,” Naylor said. “I don’t think that’s a wise thing to do when you’ve got a record mallard count.”
One reason we’re slow to see the effects of downturns in duck production is because Arkansas is the great convergence for ducks that come from all over.
“We always do good in Arkansas because we get ducks from many regions,” Naylor said. “Overall, conditions are good, and populations are good. By and large, we’re probably going to do OK.”
Habitat deterioration in the Dakotas and Montana is a threat. Vast acreages have been taken out of the Conservation Reserve Program in those states since 2006-2007. Remaining habitat is productive when the weather is right, but when it’s not, we might notice fewer ducks.
“The total duck breeding populations are down 20 to 25 percent in those regions,” Naylor said. “It still holds pretty steady in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. It’s not likely to impact hunters, but hopefully it doesn’t indicate a new trend.”
Everybody looks at the population estimates in the breeding bird survey, but biologists look at the other maps and tables that help tell a bigger story.
Using a biologists assessment for habitat conditions, there are more of the fair and poor, but less of the excellent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Naylor said
Widespread water may have masked habitat losses in the Dakotas the last few years, Naylor added. More habitat is desirable, of course, but you hope for the best with what you have.
“We might see a delayed effect for habitat loss because it’s been so wet,” Naylor said. “If we have several dry years in a row, we will see an impact.”
Enough impact to end the string of liberal seasons? I wouldn’t bet on it yet.