WASHINGTON -- The pace of U.S. troop withdrawals from Afghanistan will headline Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's visit to Washington, yet America's exit from the war remains tightly hinged to the abilities of the Afghan forces, which face a tough fight against insurgents this spring.
President Barack Obama has promised to end the longest U.S. war -- it began in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks -- and get the remaining troops out of Afghanistan by the end of his presidency. Deficiencies in the Afghan security forces, heavy casualties in the ranks of the army and police, a fragile new government and fears that Islamic State fighters could gain a foothold in Afghanistan have combined to persuade Obama to slow the withdrawal.
Instead of trimming the current U.S. force of 9,800 to 5,500 by the end of the year, U.S. military officials say, the administration now might keep many of them there well into 2016. Obama had said after that, the U.S. would maintain only an embassy-based security force in Kabul of perhaps 1,000 troops.
But Friday, Jeff Eggers of the White House's National Security Council said that, too, could be changed. He said the post-2016 plan will be considered on an ongoing basis. Officials later said Eggers was alluding to discussions about the breadth of the U.S. relationship with Afghanistan after 2016 and that the size of the U.S. footprint and the troop levels in Afghanistan that Obama called for in May would not change.
At stake is the U.S. taxpayers' more than $60 billion investment -- so far -- in the Afghan forces. The 327,000-member force performs much better than before but still needs work.
While praising their ability to operate mostly independently and to secure the nation during a protracted election, U.S. military officials say the Afghan forces still suffer from a host of problems.
They also are suffering many casualties as they ramp up operations.
More than 1,300 members of the Afghan army were killed in action and another 6,200 were wounded in action between October 2013 and September 2014, according to a report this month from the special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction. Casualties in the ranks of policemen are even higher.
In nearly 14 years of fighting, at least 2,200 U.S. military service members have been killed.
Afghan leaders also worry that Islamic State militants could push into the region and bring guns and money that would spark competition among insurgents disenchanted with the Taliban leadership and eager to prove their prowess. Afghan and U.S. officials say some Afghan militants have rebranded themselves with the Islamic State extremist group, raising its black flag and even clashing with Taliban fighters.
Army Gen. John Campbell, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, told a congressional panel recently that the Afghans repeatedly ask the U.S. for close air support, which has been critical in their ability to fend off Taliban fighters battling to capture territory.
"What I tell the Afghans is, 'Don't plan your operation wholly dependent upon close air support. The Taliban doesn't have close air support. The Taliban doesn't have up-armored Humvees. The Taliban doesn't have D-30 Howitzers. The Taliban doesn't have, you know, the weapons that you have,'" Campbell said.
The Afghan air force, which currently has about 100 aircraft, is scheduled to receive 20 light-attack aircraft used for counterinsurgency, close air support and aerial reconnaissance, but more than half aren't scheduled to arrive until 2017 and 2018.
"That's another reason we need to continue to have this train, advise and assist [mission] for the next several years," Campbell said.
Nearly 14 years after the U.S. invaded after 9/11 to root out al-Qaida and oust its host, the Taliban, Afghanistan remains a dangerous country.
The United Nations reports that 3,700 Afghan civilians were killed and another 6,850 were injured in the conflict last year, more than any year since it started documenting civilian casualties.
So far, Congress has appropriated more than $60 billion to build, equip, train and sustain the Afghan forces, and the Defense Department has asked for an additional $3.8 billion for fiscal 2016.
Some Republicans, long opposed to any withdrawal timeline, are now pushing Obama to revisit his plan to bring the troop level to zero by 2017.
Sticking to the 2017 deadline "would invite the same disaster we have seen in Iraq: a vacuum filled by instability and terror that would ultimately threaten the United States," Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said in a joint statement last week. "History will judge President Obama's legacy not by the day we leave Afghanistan, but by what we leave behind."
Stalled agenda
Speaking before his arrival in Washington on Sunday, Ghani, who has also called for the Obama administration to delay the withdrawal of the 9,800 U.S. troops, said the two countries had common security concerns, including the rise of the Islamic State, which Ghani's government says has established a beachhead in Afghanistan.
"The threats that we are facing on a daily basis -- were they, God forbid, to overwhelm us -- will threaten the world at large," Ghani said on CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS. "The experience of Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya are now examples to draw on."
After his victory in an election tainted by fraud allegations six months ago, the U.S.-educated former finance minister announced an agenda of political and economic changes. But as that agenda has stalled, Ghani has made peace with the Taliban his top priority.
He has taken the issue away from the failed High Peace Council, which the government of former President Hamid Karzai established to handle outreach to the Taliban and which the insurgents hated (one council leader was assassinated in his home).
The message to the Taliban is that unlike Karzai, who referred to the insurgents as "brothers" but also presided over a war that killed thousands of them, Ghani is serious about bringing them into his government.
"Ashraf Ghani's rhetoric is important -- it showed a different approach than that of Karzai," said Abdul Salam Rocketi, a former Taliban military commander. "Everything Ghani has said has been centered around peace."
Afghan officials believe Taliban leaders have been ready to negotiate since the group opened a political office in Qatar in 2013 to facilitate talks. A truce would give the insurgents some of the political power they have coveted since their ouster in the 2001 U.S.-led invasion and would satisfy U.S. officials who long ago recognized that the conflict could end only at the negotiating table.
As a show of good faith, Ghani's representatives have indicated they would allow the Taliban to have some say in the logistics of the negotiations. One official with knowledge of the matter said the government would let the Taliban suggest a location for the first round of talks; a second round would be held in Afghanistan and a third in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, a symbolic overture to the Taliban, who says it has been fighting a holy war against U.S.-led foreign forces.
Meanwhile, an Afghan woman who was beaten to death by a mob was buried in Kabul on Sunday, her coffin carried aloft by women's rights activists.
Hundreds of people gathered in northern Kabul for the funeral of 27-year-old Farkhunda, who like many Afghans is known by only one name.
She was killed late Thursday by a mob of mostly men who beat her, set her body on fire and then threw it into the Kabul River, according to police accounts. Police are still investigating what prompted the mob assault.
Ghani condemned Farkhunda's killing as a "heinous attack" and ordered an investigation.
After allegations that police stood by and did nothing to stop the fatal attack, Ghani said it revealed "a fundamental issue" -- the country's police were too focused on the fight against the Taliban insurgency to concentrate on community policing.
His comments followed widespread condemnation of the killing. In Afghanistan, women are generally treated as inferior, despite constitutional guarantees of equality. Violence against women often goes unpunished.
Some Afghan officials and religious leaders sought to justify Farkhunda's killing, alleging that she had burned a Koran.
But at her graveside, the head of the Interior Ministry's criminal investigation directorate, Gen. Mohammad Zahir, said no evidence had been found to support those allegations.
"We have reviewed all the evidence and have been unable to find any single iota of evidence to support claims that she had burned a Koran," Zahir said.
He said that 13 people had been arrested in connection with her killing. Sediq Sediqqi, spokesman for the Ministry of Interior, said 13 police officials had been suspended.
Zahir's comments followed the results of an investigation by the Ministry of Hajj and Religious Affairs that said that charred papers found at the shrine where she was attacked Thursday were from a Persian-language prayer book.
Information for this article was contributed by Deb Riechmann, Rahim Faiez and Lynne O'Donnell of The Associated Press; by Shashank Bengali, Ali M. Latifi, Aoun Sah and Zulfiqar Ali of the Los Angeles Times; and by Missy Ryan and Greg Jaffe of The Washington Post.
A Section on 03/23/2015