Officials to decide on redoing census

Population growth in central Arkansas has some municipal officials thinking they might want to take another head count.

According to preliminary population estimates prepared by Metroplan, a number of towns in the area have had significant population increases since the 2010 U.S. Census was conducted.

And since a population increase can mean more money in the form of state turnback aid, officials in some of those towns are thinking they would rather pay for a recount now and start reaping the rewards of a larger population than wait until the next census in 2020.

Last month, staff members from Metroplan, the region's long-term transportation planning agency, briefed local city and county elected officials on what it would take to conduct a special census and provided them with the population estimates prepared by Metroplan statistician Jonathan Lupton.

Under state law, cities get three forms of state aid that are distributed based on population.

There is general state turnback, which is appropriated by the Legislature. The amount is about $30 million annually, according to Don Zimmerman, executive director of the Arkansas Municipal League.

State turnback aid also includes money distributed by the Arkansas Highway and Transportation Department to cities and counties.

Of every $1 the agency collects in fuel taxes, 15 percent is distributed to the cities based on their populations. Counties also receive 15 percent based on their populations. The cities also receive a similar share of proceeds from the severance tax on natural gas that is distributed to the department.

The population estimate provided by Metroplan for Bryant was large enough for Mayor Jill Dabbs to say she will consider asking the City Council to pursue a special census.

Metroplan staff estimated Bryant's population had grown 19.6 percent, to 19,954. The Saline County town's 2010 Census population was 16,688.

If that new population count holds true, the city could see a total of $269,233 in additional turnback aid every year, according to the Metroplan analysis.

The additional money includes $195,511 in street turnback, $58,878 in general turnback and $22,179 in severance turnback. The city now receives an estimated $1.38 million in annual turnback aid, according to Metroplan.

"It's certainly enough to justify the cost of the [special] census," Dabbs said of the additional money, which she said would be rolled into the city's master spending plan.

But conducting a special census in hopes of collecting the additional revenue higher population could bring is expensive and must be paid for up front.

The precise cost to recount Bryant's population won't be known until the city formally requests a special census from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Metroplan analysis said in the years leading up to the 2010 Census the costs were $12 to $15 per capita, which would put the cost of a special census for Bryant at between $239,000 and $300,000.

The costs, however, likely would be higher than that now, according to Lupton.

Anticipated costs include staffing, materials, data processing and tabulation, according to the bureau, which says on its website that the count begins only after payment is made.

Other cities in the five-county region that have representatives on the Metroplan Board of Directors saw significant population increases. Austin in Lonoke County has a population of 3,130, which is 53.6 percent higher than its official 2010 Census population of 2,038.

Shannon Hills, a bedroom community in Saline County, was among a handful of cities that saw its population increase by at least 13 percent, according to Metroplan estimates. Its population now is 3,568, or 13.5 percent higher than its 2010 Census population of 3,143.

But Shannon Hills Mayor Mike Kemp is unsure whether he will pursue a special census even though his city could reap an extra $35,000 annually if the Metroplan population estimates hold up. It now receives total state turnback of $259,000 every year, according to Metroplan.

It likely would cost the city more than $50,000 to undertake the special census. It is money the city doesn't have, Kemp said.

"Unless I could get an astronomical increase [in turnback], I just don't see how we can justify it," he said.

Still, the mayor said he did ask the Census Bureau to prepare a cost estimate just in case, but he said he hasn't heard back yet.

Metroplan said the time is now for Shannon Hills and other cities to consider it because they would have at least four years to realize the extra money before the 2020 Census is undertaken. Also, U.S. Census officials won't do any special censuses after 2018 in order to prepare for the decennial census.

To some degree, though, whether to pursue a special census is a roll of the dice.

Little Rock, for one, likely won't pursue a special census, based on the population estimates. Its population now is 199,511, which is 3.1 percent higher than its 2010 population of 193,534.

A special census, using Metroplan calculations, likely would cost the city more than $3 million. If the population estimates were accurate, it would receive almost $500,000 in additional turnback aid annually. It now receives about $16 million a year in state turnback, according to Metroplan.

"Not all cities would benefit from a special census," Metroplan said. "Cities with faster growth rates will of course benefit the most. [But] it is difficult to establish what rate of population growth it takes to justify the cost of a special census."

Metro on 05/18/2015

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