We're about to see some wild behavior from the Republican presidential candidates. At least that's what the cable networks are trying to arrange.
The Washington Post explains how Fox's rules work: "To qualify for the event, candidates must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls by August 4th at 5 p.m. ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques and recognized by Fox News."
Apparently if two (or more) candidates tie for 10th, however that's defined, they will both (or all) be included.
In CNN's rules for the second debate, scheduled for September 16, the top 10 candidates "in public polling" will debate, and a second session will take place for those who have fallen further back but still "meet the minimum threshold of 1 percent."
By allowing the television host to set the rules, the Republican National Committee passes the buck on the controversies that will arise when candidates are excluded. But it also loses the opportunity to hand-select the candidates it wants to see included by drawing up its own rules.
We're going to see gimmicks, stunts and every attention-grabbing device the campaigns can think of, all timed to maximize poll standings near the end of July.
All of this public campaigning promises to provide cheap, watchable programming for the same cable news networks that are setting up the incentives. A public feud between two candidates (even a phony one deliberately planned to draw attention) should attract higher ratings than coverage of the less-visible courting of party insiders that candidates might otherwise be engaged in.
Constructing polling averages is an art, not a science, and there's plenty of room (deliberately manipulated or not) for different results driven by the choice of methods. Fox appears to be using a simple average, but it hasn't told us what polls it will include.
Perhaps more important, the current also-rans--Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich--are close to zero in the ratings. It wouldn't take much for a Joe the Plumber to declare a candidacy and reach 10th place if he's featured on Fox in June.
For the viable candidates, it's probably necessary to get some polling momentum at some point between now and the end of the year. Debates could help build that. At the same time, party actors, even those who realize how arbitrary the rankings are, may tend to write off the excluded candidates.
None of this may affect the party's image, although Republican officials seem to believe it does. It's unlikely any general election votes are at stake just because, say, Fiorina is on the stage for an event few will watch and hardly anyone will remember a year later. But candidates who are excluded from the debates--but who have important supporters--could wind up holding it against the party.
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Jonathan Bernstein is a columnist for Bloomberg News.
Editorial on 05/23/2015