UPDATED STORY: Risk for severe storms, isolated tornadoes now slight on Wednesday
A cold front will clash with mild, moist air over Arkansas on Wednesday, creating a volatile storm system that forecasters predict will produce high winds, thunderstorms, hail and a chance for tornadoes.
The potential for the most severe weather on Veterans Day lies in north and north-central Arkansas, most of Missouri, the western edge of Tennessee and southern Illinois, National Weather Service meteorologists said Monday.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration classified Arkansas as having an "enhanced" risk for severe storms -- the third-highest of five categories it designates for storm potential.
"We're looking at some risks for all of the state," said National Weather Service meteorologist Chris Buonanno of North Little Rock. "But the greatest risk increases as you go north."
Buonanno said the system will likely develop squall lines, or bands of high winds on the edge of the approaching frontal system, topping 60 mph as they bluster their way across the state from the west toward the east.
"The wind damage threat will be much more widespread across the state," he added.
It's the first storm system in a while in Arkansas that will produce the wind shear and instability needed to create tornadoes, but it's not uncommon for this time of year in the state, Buonanno said.
"We're in the secondary severe weather season," he said.
As colder air from the north is ushered into Arkansas by the jet stream, it collides with higher late-season temperatures, he said. The warm, moist Gulf atmosphere adds to the mix and creates the potential for heavier storms.
Forecasters say the system, created off the California Pacific coast, should enter Arkansas early Wednesday and leave the state late Wednesday evening.
The cold front strengthened east of the Rocky Mountains, said National Weather Service meteorologist Amy Jankowski of Tulsa, prompting the Storm Prediction Center's advisory.
"There is quite a bit of shear with this system," Jankowski said, referring to varying wind directions. "We could see some rotation that develop into isolated tornadoes."
Jankowski compared the storm system with one that spawned a tornado near Okemah in east-central Oklahoma on Thursday. There were no injuries in that storm.
The western half of Arkansas was placed under a tornado watch that day, meaning conditions were favorable for formation of twisters, but none was reported.
"We're not sure where the most likely spot is for any tornadoes," Jankowski said. "It depends on the timing of the day and where the front is located during the warmest part of the day."
Arkansas Department of Emergency Management spokesman Whitney Green said Arkansans should familiarize themselves with the difference between tornado watches and warnings. Warnings mean that a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar, and people should seek immediate shelter.
Most injuries associated with high winds are caused by flying debris, so people are advised to protect their heads, Green said.
She also advised people to prepare an emergency kit for storms, develop a family communications plan and ensure they have batteries for flashlights and weather radios in case power is disrupted.
State Desk on 11/10/2015