Drought-free state faces fresh deluge; forecast dampens Yule-sales hopes

For the first time since late July, Arkansas is drought-free. But while some are thankful for the rains that have soaked the state this month, businesses that rely on Christmas shoppers are concerned that yet another round of heavy precipitation will hinder sales.

Forecasters are calling for up to 8 inches of rain in the northwestern half of the state during the next three days as a cold front from the west collides with Gulf of Mexico moisture.

The northwestern two-thirds of the state is under a flash-flood warning.

"It's looking very rainy," said National Weather Service meteorologist Charles Dalton of North Little Rock. "River flooding is a certainty. It's as much of a sure shot as we can get meteorologically."

The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln released its weekly report Wednesday and deemed Arkansas clear of any drought conditions for the first time since July 21.

Last week, the center, which evaluates drought conditions on the basis of a range of climate data, said Arkansas was 63 percent drought-free.

That evaluation did not include heavy rains that fell on the state Nov. 17.

During a 72-hour period, which included Nov. 17 and is reflected in this week's report by the center, 5.67 inches of rain fell on Jonesboro, 4.48 inches were reported in West Memphis, and 4.43 inches soaked Russellville.

Louisiana also was classified as drought-free this week, and Alabama was 98 percent free from drought -- down from 67 percent a week earlier, according to the center.

Scientists considered Arkansas' drought as a "flash drought," meaning conditions had rapidly deteriorated.

Drought report author Richard Heim, a meteorologist with the National Center for Environmental Information at Asheville, N.C., said last week that he expected Arkansas' heavy rains would eliminate the state's drought.

Arkansas has experienced a roller coaster of weather conditions this year, he said. Heavy rains in May flooded the Red River in the southwest corner of the state and the Arkansas River. But in July, the "faucet stopped," he said, and the drought grew quickly.

In October, rains returned, and the remnants from Hurricane Patricia deluged Arkansas.

"This year has been an amazing, incredible year," Heim said last week.

More rain is forecast for the state to begin tonight and last through Sunday.

In Northwest Arkansas, 1 to 2 inches is expected to fall this evening, said National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Sellers of Tulsa. Another 2 to 3 inches is forecast for Friday, and up to 2 more will drench the area Saturday, he said.

The system is the same one that forecasters say will deliver ice and snow to Nebraska and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.

"We're looking at three days of steady rain," Sellers said. "It's going to be heavy at times."

While farmers and others who rely on ground moisture are pleased with the rains, others aren't as enthusiastic.

Randy Motley, the owner of Motley's Christmas Tree Farms in Little Rock, said he may be forced to close his business Friday -- which normally would kick off his busiest weekend of the year -- because of the soggy forecast.

"We're watching the news and the radar," he said. "We're sitting on go, but if it rains like they are saying, we'll close."

Owners of the Romance Christmas Tree Farm in White County will put up canopies and provide rain suits for those wishing to cut trees on the day after Thanksgiving.

"It's a tradition for a lot of people to decorate on Friday," said owner Janet Newcom. "It's a big weekend. We can't say no. We'll have our guys out there helping.

"Some people like to get out and cut trees in the weather," she said. "Except they prefer it be snow."

Teresa Hendrix, the general manager of Outlets of Little Rock, a 325,000-square-foot shopping center that recently opened in southwest Little Rock, said she hopes the forecast doesn't deter shoppers.

"This is our first Black Friday event," she said. "We're not sure what to expect."

She said areas are covered, and shoppers should be largely protected from the inclement weather.

"Some of our stores sell umbrellas," Hendrix joked. "Shoppers may think the deals will outweigh the weather."

State Desk on 11/26/2015

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