LEXINGTON, Ky. -- Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert believes he has done everything possible to bring American Pharoah into his final race in peak form.
Now it's up to the Triple Crown winner to deliver a final dynamic performance today in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland.
The colt who ended the 37-year Triple Crown drought is heading to stud duty at a nearby farm after the Classic. He's coming off a narrow loss in the Travers Stakes in August at Saratoga, his lone defeat in seven races this year.
"The time off gave him the chance to get his strength back," Baffert said. "He's at his peak, he's happy and he's doing really well. He's going to come out of there running."
American Pharoah looks like the probable pacesetter in the 1 1/4-mile race largely devoid of speed horses. The start will be critical. If the 3-year-old colt breaks cleanly from post No. 4 and establishes a commanding lead, the rest could be chasing for second money.
"My job is to have him at peak performance," Baffert said. "Then it's up to [jockey] Victor Espinoza to play the break and decide what he's going to do with him. He has an idea because he's on the inside so there's not a lot of thinking going on there."
Baffert is banking on another cool-handed ride from Espinoza.
"I told him to keep him happy and stay in his groove," Baffert said. "He can't worry about what's going on around him."
The task got easier when champion mare Beholder was scratched Wednesday because of a lung irritation. That leaves a field of eight trying to spoil American Pharoah's farewell.
"It's important for me to see him go out with a win because I'm his caretaker," Baffert said. "This one is for Pharoah. This isn't for Bob Baffert, it's for the horse."
The Breeders Cup extravaganza features 9 seven-figure stakes today, highlighted by the Classic, with American Pharoah the 4-5 morning-line favorite. Pharoahites will bet him out of devotion. Others will shop for maximum value.
NBC's Bob Neumeier is battling the old heart/head conundrum.
"The fan in me hopes American Pharoah wins, because it's good for the sport," he said. "The handicapper in me says go the other way because he'll be bet off the board."
Neumeier is leaning toward 4-1 Tonalist, last year's Belmont champion and repeat winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
NBC analyst Randy Moss also is looking elsewhere. Weighing risk against reward, he said he can't play Pharoah after a long season in his first try against older horses.
"American Pharoah almost certainly will control the pace, but from a betting perspective, I don't think his odds reflect his chances to win," Moss said. "I think he has the edge, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him lose."
Jimmy Jerkens, the trainer of long-shot Effinex, expects a peak effort from Pharoah in his final race.
"What he's done is incredible by today's standards," Jerkens said. "He could [regress] and still be tough to beat. That's how good he is."
This is the first time that Keeneland has hosted the Breeders' Cup. Racing fan Kim Langston, who made the trip from Daphne, Ala., had no doubt that Breeders Cup officials made the right choice in selecting the track.
"I always thought they [Keeneland officials] could pull it off because they've always been professional," Langston said after posing for pictures by the Breeders' Cup statue. "Being a smaller track helps the appeal. At Churchill Downs, it's so big you can't see anything. Being in a smaller space makes it more personal."
Keeneland officials have long desired this event, which is expected to have an estimated economic impact of $65 million. It's the Breeders' Cup first trip to Kentucky since 2011 at Churchill Downs, which has hosted eight times.
From a competition standpoint, the track's biggest move toward attracting top-flight horses and events was the switch from a synthetic Polytrack surface to dirt last year, following an industry trend. Keeneland already had plans in place for seating, sponsorships, parking and traffic, culminating in the June 2014 announcement that it would host this year's championships.
Breeders' Cup President and CEO Craig Fravel said size wasn't as much of an issue in choosing Keeneland or 2017 host Del Mar (seating capacity: 14,304 but has drawn up to 50,000) as is selecting venues with a strong, loyal racing following. The Breeders' Cup was founded by an association of horsemen in central Kentucky and many of its competitors were sold as yearlings at Keeneland.
"Big markets can be challenging in and of themselves simply because getting the word out can get lost in the shuffle a little bit," said Fravel, adding that Keeneland has done a great job of pulling things together. "Part of the idea of coming here and going to Del Mar was to go to communities that raised horse racing but also are very manageable communities, where we're going to be a big fish."
Most of the 45,000 tickets sold quickly this spring, right around the time American Pharoah began stringing together victories, culminating in the colt becoming racing's first Triple Crown winner since 1978. The presence of the first such champion today in the Classic and his pending retirement afterward has obviously increased interest, setting the stage for one of the most memorable championships.
The crowd Friday of 44,947 was a first-day record for the event.
Holly Tonini and Jennifer Montfort followed hunches and were rewarded with unexpected bonuses they'll always remember.
They bought face-value tickets online and arrived just in time Friday morning to see American Pharoah's final workout in 34-degree weather. Even better, the two friends staked out a front-row bench for the first day of action and felt confident about returning for today's full card.
Neither believes they could've had that kind of last-minute luck at bigger venues such as Churchill Downs or Santa Anita, which they add makes Keeneland a serendipitous first-time venue to host the Cup.
"I was a little worried at first because they're so used to drawing 90,000 at Churchill Downs, I wondered how the logistics would work," said Tonini, who drove six hours from New Eagle, Pa. "So far, so good. I love this place."
Sports on 10/31/2015