It was a mild upset, not a major one.
Toledo has a good football team. When last seen playing a complete game, the Rockets were beating Arkansas State 63-44 in the GoDaddy Bowl.
What Toledo isn't is an SEC team, and Saturday the Arkansas Razorbacks didn't play like one consistently enough, especially early, to get the victory.
Arkansas won the major statistical battles, but as always the ones that matter are the ones on the scoreboard. Saturday it read: Toledo 16, Arkansas 12.
The Razorbacks won't win many games with one visit to the end zone. This one was more "Holy Toledo!" than wholly Toledo.
A blocked Arkansas punt led to a touchdown for the Rockets, but that didn't cost the Hogs the game any more than having almost 200 more yards of offense was an advantage.
What hurt the Hogs was the inability to establish their running game. A rushing attack that wasn't especially effective in the season opener against Texas-El Paso was even worse Saturday.
By the time the Hogs got on the field for their final shot at salvaging a disappointing afternoon, Alex Collins had 54 yards on 20 carries. The team had 103 yards on the ground, and 21 of that came on three productive scrambles by Brandon Allen.
An offense that has built its reputation on grinding teams down by running the ball up the gut until they they wear out opponent simply isn't working so far this season.
Collins is a great running back, but he didn't get much help from his usually aggressive offensive line. Mostly what he got Saturday was pounded.
No doubt the Hogs miss Jonathan Williams, but there is a reason great NFL running backs buy their offensive linemen Rolex watches.
On a 73-yard drive that took 10:39, Collins carried 7 times and netted 9 yards as the Hogs settled for a 25-yard field goal with 9:30 to play and a 16-10 deficit. He did score Arkansas' lone touchdown on a 21-yard run.
However, the big offensive line is much better in pass protection than it ever has been under Bret Bielema.
Allen completed 32 of 53 passes for 412 yards, but this team isn't supposed to be passing that much. Admittedly, his only pass caught in the end zone was an interception after Jared Cornelius had returned a punt to the Toledo 28. Actually, Cornelius scored on the return but a holding call put the ball at the 28, so that was another shot in the foot by the Hogs.
With less than a minute to play, and with most of the 49,591 hearty fans still on hand at War Memorial Stadium, Allen drove the Razorbacks to Toledo's 16, but after almost four hours of football they came up short again.
Arkansas struggled early to stop the Rockets on third down. Toledo converted 4 of 7 third downs, all through the air, and that accounted for 76 of the team's 146 first-quarter yards.
The Razorbacks adjusted, giving more attention to covering the middle of the field, and held Toledo until the third quarter when it converted a third-and-3 play with an 18-yard pass. Three plays later it went from third and 7 to fourth and inches.
The Rockets converted their second fourth down and then scored on an 11-yard run for a 16-7 lead with 5:09 to play in the third quarter.
The Razorbacks seemed out of sync much of the first half, but they also seemed like they thought Toledo was supposed to roll over and play lost.
Instead, the visitors kept pounding, kept swarming to the ball and made two touchdowns and a field goal enough to beat an SEC opponent and get the lion's share of attention on national television Saturday night.
Sports on 09/13/2015