A slow-moving cold front from the north and near-record levels of Gulf moisture in the atmosphere over Arkansas are expected to produce heavy rainfall over the state this weekend and early next week, National Weather Service meteorologists said.
The weather service issued a flash flood watch from today through Monday morning for six northern Arkansas counties after forecasts called for up to 6 inches of rain or more over the weekend.
"We're looking at a potential for a lot of rain," said National Weather Service meteorologist Willie Gilmore of North Little Rock. "Some areas could see over 6 inches. The good news is that it will be spread out over three days rather than all at once."
The storm system will "wobble" in from the Gulf Coast and mix with cooler air from the northwest over Arkansas, the weather service said on its website. Forecasters said rain was expected to begin falling in northern Arkansas late Friday. Most of the state will see rain today, Sunday and Monday.
The storm is responsible for widespread flooding in Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi.
The Associated Press reported a man was killed near Baton Rouge on Friday when he slipped into floodwaters. More than 15 inches of rain fell in Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi on Thursday and Friday, prompting scores of evacuations.
Several school districts closed Friday because of flooding in Louisiana, the AP reported. Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards issued a state of emergency for the entire state Friday.
National Weather Service hydrologist Tabitha Clarke of North Little Rock said most of the heavier rainfall will occur in the northern tier of the state. She said the White River and Buffalo River will be affected the most by runoff.
"If the heaviest rainfall is above Bull Shoals, Table Rock and Norfork Lake, those reservoirs will come in handy," Clarke said. "It's summer and they can handle the water."
She said the Buffalo River is a concern because campers and canoe enthusiasts are expected to flock to the area this weekend before many schools begin classes Monday.
"Some models suggest we'll see steady rain the next few days with periods of heavy rain over the Ozarks," she said.
Hugh Murphy, an employee of Crockett's Country Store and Buffalo River Canoe Rental in Harriet, said Friday that he is monitoring river levels.
"We are getting ready for it," he said. "We have a large group going out in the morning.
"We'll constantly check the U.S. Geological Survey's water levels. We'll keep an eye on the river above us. If it goes up, we have a couple of hours to react. We'll get the johnboats out and get them off the river."
He said he also is warning campers about the potential for rapidly rising waters.
Gilmore said meteorologists recorded near-record amounts of available moisture in the atmosphere from between 30,000 and 80,000 feet. That doesn't mean record rainfalls will necessarily occur, but the potential is there for heavy rain, he said.
"There is still plant life available to suck up some water," he said. "And the moisture will help the fall colors come out better."
Last year, because of drier conditions, Arkansas saw only a brief period in the fall when leaves changed colors.
"It all depends on where this front will stall," Gilmore said. "They generally struggle to get over the cooler air of the Ozarks. We will see a lot of rain with this system."
State Desk on 08/13/2016