If you expect the St. Louis Cardinals to make a splash at the annual baseball winter meetings, you won't be satisfied with what transpires this week at the Gaylord National Resort -- a short drive from Washington, D.C.
If you hope Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak can build a roster this winter to derail what appears to be a budding dynasty at Wrigley Field, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
As Mozeliak and his top baseball operations assistants arrived in Maryland on Sunday night, it's important to realize that the Cardinals aren't in search of the magic bullet to put them on par with the World Series champions.
Time and the Chicago Cubs have caught up and surpassed the Cardinals. Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. and Mozeliak should take one of two options. Neither option is very appealing, and you can be assured that they won't do either.
If they don't take one of the two, however, the Cardinals are likely to begin this season and the next few knowing their only path to the playoffs is via the wild card.
The first option is arguably the most painful and unappealing to the fans who have made the Cardinals the second best draw in Major League Baseball.
Here's option No. 1: The Cardinals should save their money this winter, trim payroll and concede 2017 so that they can fortify for 2018 and beyond. It wouldn't be exactly tanking, but close.
For the record, I asked Mozeliak on Tuesday if he and DeWitt would ever consider tanking to rebuild the roster in the same manner the Cubs built their powerhouse.
As expected, he dismissed my question quickly.
"We're just going to stay true with how we try to make decisions, try to find ways to improve the team via the two different avenues we have to do so," Mozeliak said.
In other words, Mozeliak and DeWitt aren't ready to take shortcuts. They vow to continue on the same conservative path that led the franchise to World Series titles in 2006 and 2011.
Those titles were secured in an era before the last collective bargaining agreement. That CBA rewarded losing enough for the Cubs and Houston Astros to stockpile their farm systems by tearing down their major league clubs and losing to win in the future.
The future arrived this November for the Cubs, who, you might have heard, won their first World Series title since 1908 in a thrilling seven-game classic.
The Astros, who picked first in three consecutive drafts from 2012 through 2014 under the leadership of former Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow, are now primed to spend lavishly this winter in their quest to return to the World Series.
Nobody exploited the tanking philosophy quite like the Astros, who might have even beaten the Cubs to the World Series if they had picked Kris Bryant first instead of pitcher Mark Appel in 2013. Bryant won the National League Rookie of the Year Award last year and the NL MVP Award this year to go with his World Series title.
Appel has yet to reach the majors. He may become one of the biggest flops in the history of the baseball draft. We bring up Bryant, Appel, the Cubs and Astros only to point out that teams have to make the right choices in the draft.
We also bring up the Astros and Cubs to remind folks how long those teams struggled while tanking. The so-called Best Fans in Baseball wouldn't accept such a tortured period.
The Cubs could sell their Lovable Losers shtick. St. Louis, as we all know, is arguably one of the best baseball towns in America. Fans here know when they're being sold bad baseball. That much was evident when thousands of seats remained empty at Busch Stadium in the final week of this year, even though the Cardinals remained in the wild-card race until the final day.
Fortunately for DeWitt and Mozeliak, I'm here to offer option No. 2 to help the Cardinals build a roster in 2017 to match the Cubs' juggernaut.
In this option, Mozeliak needs to go big on the free agent and trade market this week to get the pieces necessary to build a roster that can be compared to the Cubs.
To that end, they must raise the payroll in excess of $170 million. The cost will be heavy in terms of prospects and free agents.
In this plan, hard-throwing right-hander Alex Reyes would be the only untouchable as the Cardinals pursue a trade for the Chicago White Sox's Chris Sale or the Tampa Bay Rays' Chris Archer.
Mozeliak must sign Dexter Fowler and add one of the top bullpen arms on the free agent market, either Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen.
These are your go big or go home options. We mentioned them to outline just how difficult it will be for the Cardinals to make the moves to get back atop the NL Central.
"We've been relatively competitive in our division since 2000. That's 16 seasons," Mozeliak pointed out.
The Cardinals didn't have a superpower at Wrigley Field during that time, though, because that 2003 Cubs squad faded quickly.
"We're not simply trying to do a quick fix for '17 and not remain competitive for 2018, 2019 and '20," Mozeliak said.
By the end of the winter meetings, we'll know just how serious the Cardinals are about contending for a World Series in 2017. If they only secure one big name, the wild-card berth would be the only genuine goal for the Local 9.
Cardinals fans should prepare for modest upgrades during the winter meetings.
Sports on 12/06/2016