EU unease spreads after Italian vote

Far-right candidates in Netherlands, France looking to ride populist tide

THE HAGUE, Netherlands -- Italian voters rocked Europe's boat more over the weekend than Austrian voters were able to steady it.

And the storm isn't over yet: Europe's unity and common currency face growing uncertainty in a series of coming elections, notably in the Netherlands and France, where the far right looms large. And like Italy, both are founding nations that were at the cradle of the European Union in the 1950s.

"Europe in 2017, we all know, will be a disaster," said Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at the Luiss University in Rome. "We have to expect European paralysis."

Unless EU juggernauts like France and Germany find ways to turn the tide, the defeat of the extremist right wing in Austria's presidential election on Sunday could be a blip on an increasingly muddled screen.

The anti-establishment wave that swept over Britain and then the United States won another victory Sunday that could further shake the foundation of the European Union. Italians rejected constitutional overhauls championed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who had staked his political future on winning the referendum. To rub it in, Renzi offered his resignation against the backdrop of the EU flag.

Renzi's loss also risks unleashing financial upheaval in Europe's third-largest economy as Italy's banks struggle to contain the fallout.

A populist takeover of Italy is still an uncertain prospect since Renzi's center-left Democratic Party remains in control of Parliament and national elections do not have to be called until 2018.

What comes next will depend partially on Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who is charged with picking a new person to try to form a government, as well as with deciding whether to hold early elections. Elections are a key demand from the Five Star Movement, which is running a close second to Renzi's party in the polls.

"Inside this vote, there is a vote of frustration, discontent -- punishment," Orsina said of the unexpectedly large no vote -- 60 percent -- from a robust turnout of nearly 70 percent of the electorate.

That was music to the ears of far-right populists like Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, and Marine Le Pen and her National Front in France.

"Congratulations Italia," Wilders tweeted early Monday after Renzi's defeat at the hands of Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement and anti-immigrant Northern League.

When the Dutch go to the polls in March, Wilders could well be next to ride the mood of discontent that has trampled the status quo since the June 23 referendum in Britain stunned the powers-that-be and forced Britain to seek an exit from the EU.

The Netherlands has already had two referendums seen as punishing Europe -- the country rejected the EU's proposed constitution a dozen years ago and earlier this year voters rejected a free-trade pact between the EU and Ukraine, a vote that was widely seen as a rebuke of the bloc's policies. Wilders called that outcome "a vote of no confidence by the people against the elite from Brussels."

In May, anti-EU Le Pen will be on the ballot in the French presidential election.

Le Pen is already relishing the challenge and happily watched Sunday's implosion of Italy's political establishment.

"This Italian 'No,' after the Greek referendum, after Brexit, adds a new populace to the list of those who want to turn their backs on absurd European policies that plunge the continent into misery," Le Pen exulted.

And that is even before three-time Chancellor Angela Merkel faces the tide in German elections in late September.

What European politics showed again over the weekend, said Hendrik Vos, a European political science professor at Ghent University, is that "the genie is out of the bottle."

"With a lot of noise and fact-free politics you can win elections," he said. "We have entered a period where nothing is impossible and it worries all capitals, and especially the EU headquarters."

It's almost an indication of the depth of despair that Sunday's win by left-leaning Alexander Van der Bellen over his rightist rival for Austria's presidency -- a largely symbolic post -- was welcomed as a blow against the populist forces victorious elsewhere.

Van der Bellen beat Norbert Hofer of the anti-immigrant FPO party with a slender margin of just 51.7 percent to 48.3 percent -- an incredible result for a far-right party.

Le Pen immediately seized on that. "The formidable performance of the FPO in Austria testifies to this: The global rejection of all EU policies, notably on the economy and migration, is accelerating on the continent," she said.

Information for this article was contributed by Nicole Winfield, Geir Moulson, Frank Jordans, Angela Charlton and Mike Corder of The Associated Press; and by Michael Birnbaum, Anthony Faiola, Stefano Pitrelli in Rome and Stephanie Kirchner of The Washington Post.

A Section on 12/06/2016

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