Levels of confidence
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee is attaching a confidence rating next to his top selection in each race. Readers should consider selections with:
*Educated guess
**Things to like
***Plenty to like
****Confident choice
LEE’S LOCK Sandy’s Song in the ninth
BEST BET Swingin Hot in the seventh
BEST LONG SHOT Abraham in the sixth
SUNDAY’S RESULTS 2-9 (22.2 percent)
MEET 21-99 (21.2 percent)
1 Purse $21,000, 1 1/16 miles, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $7,500
ZES T CAT** was likely best when beaten only a neck in a troubled trip Jan. 21, and she is an in-form finisher who has landed in a field with plenty of pace. BOX OFFICE APPEAL finished her 2015 campaign with consecutive $5,000 claiming victories at Indiana, and she appears to be working smartly after a freshening. She is a two-time winner at Oaklawn and picks up the leading rider. LENA LOVE was caught inside the final furlong in a strong fourth-place finish at Churchill, and she is dropping in class and may lead past every pole.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
3 Zes T Cat Thompson Manley 5-1 5 Box Office Appeal Santana McNair 5-1 9 Lena Love Court Wiggins 7-2 4 Taxy Lady De La Cruz Cates 5-2 7 Stephensclassygal Wethey Mullins 10-1 6 Earl’s Girl Corbett on Hemel 6-1 1 Serving Time Loveberry Caldwell 10-1 8 Disqualified Rocco Lynn 15-1 2 Hold the Papers Hill Caldwell 15-1
2 Purse $24,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $25,000
MR PIPPINS** has been on the sidelines since April, but fired a competitive race against better in his debut last winter at Oaklawn, and his workouts this season are upbeat for a winning stable. LONG STATION was not treated with Lasix when fifth of 11 in his first start at the meeting, but is treated today and a return to one of his better races may prove good enough. LEFLORE COUNTY was forwardly placed when beaten by less than a length at Keeneland, and trainer Ron Moquett has been spotting runners where they can win.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
6 Mr Pippins Emigh Hartman 3-1 1 Long Station Thompson Van Meter 9-2 8 Leflore County Osorio Moquett 7-2 7 Horsetailspeedster Court Lukas 6-1 5 My Man Greyson Hill Shorter 10-1 9 Hesaluckycat Nakatani Morse 5-1 3 Duke of Kent Canchari Gustafson 8-1 4 Dr. Kyi Sanjur Manley 12-1 1a Hekla Santana Dutrow 9-2 2 Kyathe John Wethey Mullins 20-1
3 Purse $21,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, claiming $7,500
GRAY AREA*** lost a big lead inside the final furlong in a tough-luck defeat, and he benefits from a big rider change and will appreciate a faster surface. ZENSATIONAL VISION pressured a rapid early pace before fading late in his 2016 debut, and he likely needed the race and improves at a price if able to dictate the pace. SUPER STROKE finished second at this classification at Churchill, and he is dropping in price after a useful trip over this track.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
8 Gray Area De La Cruz Stuart 3-1 11 Zensational Vision Birzer Jackson 3-1 1 Super Stroke Santana Hartman 5-1 4 Musashi LQuinonez Prather 7-2 6 Happy Nakatani Moquett 6-1 3 Kid Paradise Lantz Winebaugh 20-1 7 Dr Anderson Vazquez Hall 8-1 10 Sensible Solution Hamilton Holthus 10-1 2 V B and Me Franco Biehler 20-1 9 Could Be Game Saez Compton 20-1 5 Ramona’s Boy Ocampo Chleborad 15-1 12 Deliver the Storm BQuinonez Cline 20-1
4 Purse $25,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, starter allowance
WILDCAT ANGIE** has used her early speed to advantage in a current five-race winning streak, she wins over any track and is difficult to beat to the front. HOLLYWOOD KNOCKOUT was a decisive sprint winner just two back at Remington and is back sprinting after battling for six furlongs in a route effort against better. MS. ZENERGY picks up the leading rider after a determined front-running victory at one-mile at Churchill, and she was claimed by a top claiming stable.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
2 Wildcat Angie Loveberry Milligan 5-2 1 Hollywood Knockout Saez Stuart 6-1 8 Ms. Zenergy Santana Hartman 7-2 3 Shut the Gate Rodriguez Wiggins 8-1 7 Judy Judy Judy Rocco Riecken 9-2 6 Bling It On Baby Vazquez Gustafson 5-1 4 Fervent Court Lauer 6-1 5 Thunder Wit Osorio Hancock 20-1
5 Purse $68,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden special weight
COMIC BIRD *** has not raced since May, but his career debut last winter produced a second-place finish behind a very nice colt in the Rainbow, and all three of his starts last season appear good enough to outrun this field. CANNINGTON hit the wire only one position behind the top selection last April, and he possesses good early speed and is very capable. DETROIT COWBOY flashed speed before tiring in an encouraging debut at Churchill, and he has worked well since arriving in Hot Springs and will race as a gelding for the first time.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
12 Comic Bird Ocampo Jayaraman 5-2 2 Cannington Vazquez Moquett 9-2 6 Detroit Cowboy Thompson Jackson 6-1 10 Paw Paw Popsicle LQuinonez Prather 10-1 11 J P of Galilee Landeros Hornsby 6-1 3 Sammy Boy Nakatani Morse 10-1 1 I Am Hamilton Ives 12-1 7 Cat Got Even De La Cruz Martin 10-1 8 Maximilian BQuinonez Ashauer 20-1 9 Light Bound Bid Laviolette Loy 15-1 4 Mr. Atomic Rocco Cline 15-1 5 Absolutely Bull Manrrique 20-1
6 Purse $44,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $50,000
ABRAHAM** lost a late lead in a photo finish loss in his last race at Remington, and he was beaten only a neck when last running in a $50,000 claiming race last summer at Saratoga. DOMAIN’S RAP has earned strong Beyer figures while beating up on lesser opposition, and the Villafranco trainee drew a favorable post and appears sharp enough to move up and three-peat. CEDAR CREEK defeated $35,000 claimers in his return from a lengthy layoff, was claimed by a high percentage stable and should be near the lead throughout.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
5 Abraham Santana Richard 5-1 1 Domain’s Rap Vazquez Villafranco 3-1 9 Cedar Creek Court Cox 9-2 3 Luv Bandit Emigh Becker 9-2 10 Chas’s Legacy Rocco Byrne 12-1 7 O T B Bob Landeros Divito 8-1 2 Joy Boy Nakatani Asmussen 12-1 6 Bold Stephen Birzer Jacquot 15-1 8 Escape Artist Canchari Morse 20-1 4 Politicallycorrect De La Cruz Stuart 30-1
Jockey standings
NAME STS W P S MONEY W%
Ricardo Santana 67 10 11 9 $481,379 18 Jon Court 39 7 10 2 $392,003 18 Channing Hill 34 7 6 2 $311,021 29 Walter De La Cruz 48 7 2 8 $177,938 15 Corey Nakatani 35 6 7 2 $257,445 14 Alex Birzer 47 6 4 5 $208,919 13 Chris Landeros 32 5 3 6 $310,065 16 Ramon Vazquez 55 4 10 5 $217,551 7 Jareth Loveberry 38 4 4 3 $172,828 11 Alex Canarchi 34 4 2 0 $86,265 12
7 Purse $26,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies, maiden claiming $35,000
SWINGIN HOT*** backed up after contesting the pace in a stronger maiden allowance field, benefits from a race over the track and could be cruising on an easier lead. SKI TUNE finished second at Louisiana Downs in her only race as a juvenile, she shows good works and figures stronger and faster as a three-year-old. HEART OF A RANGER competed for the lead for 5 furlongs before weakening late in her debut at Remington, and she is dropping in for a price and horses often show marked improvement from a first to second race.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
9 Swingin Hot Wethey Diodoro 3-1 10 Ski Tune Loveberry Irwin 4-1 7 Heart of a Ranger BQuinonez Young 6-1 5 Ervayslethergo Santana Asmussen 5-1 2 Discreetlywildwood Emigh Becker 10-1 8 Sister Smack Purcell Von Hemel 15-1 11 Miss Sammy Nakatani Van Meter 12-1 12 Ralla’s Rally Hill Shorter 12-1 1 Dr Winn Kyi Sanjur Manley 20-1 4 Flin Flon Canchari Williamson 12-1 6 Pleasant Cat Tale Thompson Milligan 15-1 3 Lucky Me Lucky You Saez Hancock 15-1
8 Purse $72,000, 1 1/16 miles, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming
REGALLY READY** is an 18-race winner who has earned nearly $2 million, he benefits from recent racing in New Orleans and is effective on every surface. FOR GREATER GLORY returns to the racing wars after a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon, and notice the strong finisher has won three of his four career races at Oaklawn. ECLETO RED is a multiple stakes winner who possesses excellent route speed and will be especially tough to beat if he can beat the sprinter drawn inside of him to the front.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
5 Regally Ready Nakatani Asmussen 4-1 7 For Greater Glory Rocco Hobby 4-1 2 Ecleto Red Birzer Chleborad 9-2 3 Smack Smack Laviolette Von Hemel 3-1 1 Recount Canchari Divito 6-1 6 The Truth Or Else Landeros McPeek 5-1 8 Springboard Thompson Hiles 12-1 4 Lahshad Hill Dobbs 20-1
9 Purse $25,500, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, claiming $30,000
SANDY’S SONG**** raced well in two allowance races this winter at Fair Grounds, and she is dropping into the conditioned-claiming ranks and may have too much speed for this group. SCADADLE has earned the fastest Beyer figures in this field, but she is also an inconsistent runner and trainer Chris Richard is off to a sluggish start. SIX TONSAFUN ships from Pennsylvania with three consecutive second-place finishes, and her lone career win was a maiden victory in 2014 at Oaklawn.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
4 Sandy’s Song Court Cox 5-2 9 Scadadle Santana Richard 7-2 1 Six Tonsafun Cintron Robertson 6-1 8 Mrs. Pedicaris Landeros Von Hemel 6-1 10 Classy Student Loveberry Gustafson 6-1 2 Elaine Kowaleski Thompson Manley 8-1 3 Margo Yvonne LQuinonez Compton 12-1 5 Foxysflyinby Emigh Campbell 12-1 7 Super Romance Corbett Durham 20-1 6 Stina De La Cruz Lynn 20-1
Exotic possibilities
The way to hit a grand slam is to key an upsetter on top in trifecta and/or superfecta wagers, and the sixth race brings a field of 10 and the likely favorites have vulnerabilities so spreading out underneath makes financial sense. The late 50-cent Pick-3 begins with a large field with limited contenders, which lowers the wager, and the second leg (Race 8) is a competitive field of eight and the ninth race may be a “single” for some (Sandy’s Song) or a race to spread out if you are skeptical of the filly.