Monday is the last day for would-be voters to register if they plan to cast ballots in the March 1 primary and judicial elections.
The primary election will decide nominations for party candidates for offices ranging from president to the Legislature to some local offices. It's also the general election for nonpartisan judicial offices.
First-time voters can register either at a county clerk's office, a library or a public assistance office, according to secretary of state's office spokesman Chris Powell. Powell said early voting starts Feb. 16.
With two contested presidential primaries at the top of the ticket, as well as statewide races for the Arkansas Supreme Court and a U.S. Senate primary, some expect a higher-than-usual turnout, while officials working in the secretary of state's office expect turnout will be similar to past elections.
Powell said his office expects turnout to be about 22 percent of registered voters. In 2012's primary, which was held in May and late in the presidential nomination process, about 336,458 ballots (or 21.8 percent) were cast. That year the state had 1,538,619 registered voters.
Asked whether holding an earlier election -- one that could put Arkansas in the middle of the national presidential campaign storyline -- would result in greater voter registration or turnout, Powell said it was too difficult to speculate.
"It's hard to arrive at hard numbers on that," Powell said. "We don't put a hard and fast number on that."
But various elected and party officials think that the March 1 primary -- which was moved up from May by legislators last year -- will yield greater turnout that could set a record.
That was the idea when legislators agreed during a special session in May to move the state's primaries up to March 1 to join the so-called SEC Primary, a collection of Southern states seeking to have a greater role in the national campaigns.
With a crowded field on the Republican side, and a heated three-way race for the Democratic nomination, Arkansas House Minority Leader Michael John Gray of Augusta said he doubts colder weather would affect turnout but said anything is hard to predict when it comes to Arkansas weather or politics.
"Who knows?" said Gray, a Democrat. "Obviously in Arkansas, on the Democratic side, with Secretary [Hillary] Clinton on the ballot, you'd expect to have decent turnout because of her being one of the [local favorites]. The Republican side, with all the news being generated, you should have high turnout." Hillary Clinton is a former first lady of Arkansas.
Critics of the election move argued that moving the primary up so early would prove a hardship for local candidates needing to go door to door in winter months and also that winter weather on election day could dampen Arkansans' ability to go to the polls. Arkansas last moved up the presidential primary in 2008. On that Feb. 5 election day, the state was hit by stormy weather and a killer tornado.
Some also argued that advancing this year's primary was a not-so-subtle attempt to help former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is again seeking the Republican nomination for president.
Gray, as well as Republican Speaker of the House Jeremy Gillam of Judsonia, said he's heard from fellow legislators complaining about the expedited campaigns, but that an uptick in Arkansas' national relevance in the presidential campaign is a good tradeoff.
"I don't think [Huckabee] was the driver [for the change] but I can't discount the sentiment. I don't think ultimately that's why the decision was made," Gray said. "I'd love to see Arkansas be a more relevant player in the [presidential nomination]. We're a smaller state. Always, the conversation comes out after Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Well, what happens after that?"
Gillam said he thinks the amount of media attention -- combined with the opportunity for voters to weigh in earlier -- will drive turnout.
"What I've been hearing from [House] members, looking at different things that they've reported back, I think we'll see an uptick," Gillam said. "I think the field is obviously very energized."
Doyle Webb, the head of the state Republican Party, was more optimistic.
"We've never been here before. Based on the activity in the presidential race, and the primaries that are going around the state ... we anticipate the largest turnout [Republicans] have ever had," Webb said. "It's hard to predict because we're going to have a lot of people who've not participated in a Republican primary participating maybe for the first time. They're making the choice, are they a Republican or a Democrat, and they're choosing now that they are a Republican."
In 2008, lawmakers separated the state's presidential primary from other primary contests. The Arkansas presidential primary was held not long after Huckabee won the Iowa Caucus.
In all, about 544,170 registered party members cast ballots in the 2008 presidential primary, accounting for just over a third of the state's registered voters. By contrast, turnout for state and local primaries that May fell in half to 287,730 ballots cast.
Webb said that Arkansas' earlier primary has driven more presidential candidates to the state, driving excitement as well as participation at rallies and other events.
And with another month between now and the March 1 primary, Doyle said he wouldn't be surprised by more visits from presidential hopefuls.
"I would say, even historically, it's the most [presidential candidate appearances] we've ever had and the most activity we've ever had," Webb said. "We believe it's a good thing for the citizens of Arkansas."
Metro on 01/29/2016