FIRST POST — 1:30 P.M.
Levels of confidence
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee is attaching a confidence rating next to his top selection in each race. Readers should consider selections with:
*Educated guess
**Things to like
***Plenty to like
****Confident choice
LEE’S LOCK Conquest Curlgirl in the seventh
BEST BET Harbour Island in the eighth BEST LONG SHOT Springandaprayer in the third
SATURDAY’S RESULTS 1-9 (11.1 percent) MEET 19-90 (21.1 percent)
1 Purse $24,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $25,000 INNOCENT STORM** sprinted competitively against similar opposition last winter at Oaklawn, and she has tactical speed and is eligible to improve in her first start for a top claiming outfit. MARY LOU has not raced since 2014, but she has two in-the-money finishes at Oaklawn, and she sports an encouraging work tab in a field with little ability. STORM ELEMENT is a first-time starter with solid works, and she gets in light with an apprentice rider.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
4 Innocent Storm Vazquez Villafranco 5-1 5 Mary Lou Rodriguez Whited 7-2 6 Storm Element Autwarter Cook 8-1 1 El I Declaire De La Cruz Martin 8-1 10 Gone Bluffn Thompson Milligan 10-1 11 Andrea Reese BQuinonez Cline 10-1 3 Sea Lucy’s Reality Saez Rowland 9-2 2 Geris Hand McNeil Jackson 12-1 8 Flaming Shadow Shino Hale 12-1 7 Dancing On Air Mello Seagle 15-1 12 Half a Payday BQuinonez Prather 12-1 9 Dizzy Queen Rosier Williams 20-1
2 Purse $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4-yearolds and up, claiming $12,500 VENTURES GALORE** won three consecutive sprint races during the Remington Park meeting, and he is back sprinting after a front-running route effort against stronger $20,000 claimers Jan. 23. COMO SE LLAMA is a two-time winner at Oaklawn who exits a runner-up finish at Churchill, and he must be doing well since new trainer Karl Broberg has jumped him up in price. E. M. MAXIMUS won at the same claiming price on opening day, and he typically puts good races in succession.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
2 Ventures Galore Vazquez Villafranco 7-2 1 Como Se Llama Nakatani Broberg 9-2 5 E. M. Maximus De La Cruz Puhl 5-2 8 Dontchangetrainers Osorio Miller 8-1 3 Time Iz Flyin Loveberry Caldwell 8-1 4 Hothalfone Sanjur Haran 15-1 6 Redneck Attack Saez Gorder 5-1 7 Wingate Hall Ocampo Martin 12-1 9 Senor Rain Santana McNair 12-1
3 Purse $21,000, 5½ furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $7,500
SPRINGANDAPRAYER** finished second in three consecutive races against better opposition last spring at Oaklawn, and he had a deceptively good final race at Remington and shows good works since arriving in Hot Springs. ALI’S BIRTHDAY ships from Kentucky following consecutive in-the-money finishes, and his speed and class make him the one to beat. CREDIT REPORT is an exceptionally quick sprinter who has won 13 races in his career. He is dropping to the lowest level of his career and blinkers are off after a dull finish.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
4 Springandaprayer Hamilton Frazee 10-1 3 Ali’s Birthday Rodriguez Gorder 5-2 8 Credit Report Ocampo Martin 10-1 6 Rissdiculous Santana Hartman 9-2 1a Denali Success De La Cruz Stuart 6-1 2 The Third Ace BQuinonez Riecken 10-1 1 At Bat Loveberry Caldwell 6-1 5 Zoned In LQuinonez Lauer 10-1 9 Lake Creek Cintron Ritchey 10-1 10 Fort Gibson Johnson Hornsby 15-1 11 Rous Laviolette Cox 12-1 7 American Goods Saez Allen 12-1
4 Purse $68,000, 6 furlongs, 3-yearolds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden special weight GENTLY TAPPED** has a win-early pedigree and is training fast and often for trainer Karl Broberg, who sports a high win percentage with first-timers. BEST TRICK YET has worked very fast up to his three-year-old debut, and his only start as a juvenile was a competitive second-place finish at Louisiana Downs. GLACKEN’S GHOST is dropping into restricted company after a fourth-place finish at Fair Grounds, which earned the field’s fastest Beyer figure.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
2 Gently Tapped Vazquez Broberg 7-2 10 Best Trick Yet LQuinonez Cates 3-1 9 Glacken’s Ghost Cintron Robertson 5-1 11 Sandhill Sammy Nakatani Calhoun 8-1 6 Gone Preachin Loveberry Gonzalez 10-1 5 Gumshoe Felix McBride 12-1 7 Carson’s Suspect Santana Nelson 10-1 3 Whistlin Wesley De La Cruz Martin 10-1 12 Mr Ark Shepherd Gelner 15-1 4 Vested Creek Canchari Witt 20-1 8 Leslie’s Boy BQuinonez Cline 20-1 1 Storm Well Sanjur Cook 15-1
5 Purse $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4-yearolds and up which have never won two races, claiming $25,000 HOW ABOUT HIM* has shown speed to classier in a seven-race career, and this trainer-rider team wins races here at a 47-percent clip. ROBINWOOD contested a fast pace in a second-place effort two weeks ago, and he was claimed by a winning barn and could go the distance in front. TARASENKO was a determined maiden allowance sprint winner at Hawthorne and is back at his best distance following a useful front-running route effort over this track.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
2 How About Him Santana Hartman 3-1 1 Robinwood Loveberry Caldwell 5-1 3 Tarasenko Emigh Becker 4-1 6 Captain Payback Cintron Robertson 12-1 5 Not Guilty Vazquez Richard 6-1 8 Silken Wildcat Lantz Winebaugh 8-1 10 Mr. Ticker Talker Rocco Hobby 8-1 4 October Sky De La Cruz Martin 20-1 9 Drinkin’ Song Corbett Von Hemel 15-1 7 Vacanza Hamilton Moquett 12-1 11 Another Surprise Canchari Ritchey 20-1
6 Purse $68,000, 6 furlongs, 3-yearold fillies, maiden special weight VICKIE WINS* is an unraced filly with a speed pedigree, and she tipped her hand in a sharp 5-furlong gate work January 10, and trainer Steve Asmussen is very good with young horses. TALK SHOW has recorded swift breezes since early November. She is a nicely bred filly and represents a stable that win with first-timers. SPEIGHTSTASTIC finished second in her first three races, is back in the maiden ranks after a fourth-place stakes finish at Fair Grounds and her experience may be the difference.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
8 Vickie Wins Santana Asmussen 6-1 9 Talk Show Hill Catalano 7-2 4 Speightstastic Nakatani Calhoun 3-1 11 Wildwood Ranger Emigh Becker 15-1 6 Majestic Megan Felix Swearingen 8-1 1 Grace At Midnight Rocco Anderson 10-1 7 Harlan’s Rose Rodriguez Wiggins 10-1 5 Just Our Joy LQuinonez Von Hemel 15-1 3 Four Arches Court Fires 12-1 2 Tizthedream Landeros McPeek 12-1 10 Beach Flower Cintron Robertson 10-1 12 Abby in Pink Vazquez McNair 20-1
7 Purse $70,000, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up which have never won two races, allowance CONQUEST CURLGIRL**** has not raced since August at Del Mar, but she followed a maiden victory with a front-running third-place finish in the Grade III Summer Oaks at Santa Anita, and she seems to be training smartly for winning connections. MISS MANDATE is a stablemate of the top selection, she is battle-tested in stakes races, and her works appear as good as the top selection’s. SOUTHERN GEM had to overcome some traffic problems when rallying to a a third-place finish in the off-the-turf Pago Hop at Fair Grounds.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
10 Conquest Curlgirl Nakatani Casse 5-2 7 Miss Mandate Rocco Casse 8-1 4 Southern Gem Canchari Maker 3-1 2 Bootsy’s Girl Hill Gorder 9-2 5 Bon Heir Saez Gorder 8-1 8 She Mabee Wild Loveberry Danner 15-1 6 Martz Osorio Moquett 10-1 3 Scat Means Go Santana Asmussen 8-1 1 No Fighting Felix Mason 20-1 9 Zelda Can Dance Court Kardoush 30-1 11 U V A Law School Laviolette Smith 30-1
8 Purse $70,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming HARBOUT ISLAND*** finished second behind a favored winner in the $100,000 Instant Racing last spring at Oaklawn, and she ships from Fair Grounds following a clear second-place finish against similar opposition in her return from nine months on the sidelines. CHANTELINE was caught wide when second in the Bold Ego Handicap at Sunland, and her previous allowance race was a romping seven-length score at Keeneland. THOUGHTLESS rallied to within two lengths of the top selection in New Orleans, and the pace figures contentious enough to set up her late charge.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
7 Harbor Island Hill Stall 7-2 2 Chanteline Santana Asmussen 5-2 4 Thoughtless Cintron Robertson 5-1 10 South Wimbledon Vazquez Villafranco 8-1 9 Franks Officer Gal Court Holthus 8-1 5 Northern Connect Thompson Hiles 15-1 3 Catty N Sassy Canchari Robertson 12-1 11 Annuity Nakatani Broberg 8-1 6 Carnival Kid De La Cruz Puhl 20-1 8 Bella Veloce Osorio Moquett 15-1 1 Freakin Amazing Felix Haran 20-1
9 Purse $21,000, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $10,000 STRONG AMERICAN* showed some speed before retreating badly in her only race last season, but she appears to be working well for new trainer Brad Cox who boasts a high winning percentage with long layoff types. EURODREAMER appears to be the speed of the speed, is back at her best distance and is a deserved favorite. CARMEN’S PICTURE finished with energy in a useful sprint tuneup, and she got two turn experience in her career debut at Churchill.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
3 Strong American Landeros Cox 4-1 11 Eurodreamer Vazquez Villfranco 5-2 4 Carmen’s Picture Johnson Hartlage 10-1 7 Merrymaking Court Holthus 4-1 2 Sweetdreamstonight Birzer Creighton 8-1 5 Burnt Orangedini Corbett Durham 12-1 8 My Sister Nell McNeil Petalino 15-1 1 La Bella Bielby Cox 10-1 9 You Vow Me De La Cruz McNair 10-1 6 Sky Dunk Rodriguez Miller 20-1 10 Thunder n’ Lightin Laviolette Hornsby 20-1 12 Craftys Lil Sis BQuinonez Mullins 20-1
Exotic possibilities
The third race offers big trifecta or superfecta possibilities if you “key” an upsetter (Springandaprayer) over the contenders and if another “price” horses rolls in the payoff will be more than worth cashing. The 50-cent Pick-3 starting in Race 7 seems hittable assuming Conquest Curlgirl shows her class. In the middle leg, 11 starters enter the gate and the depth may be only two or three deep, and the final leg is very difficult and therefore may produce an upset winner.