Thundershowers popped up across north Arkansas on Friday afternoon and more storms are expected this weekend, keeping summer drought conditions from getting worse, climatologists said.
The northern third of the state could receive from 2 to 5 inches of rain through Sunday evening, National Weather Service hydrologist Tabitha Clarke of North Little Rock said. The southwest corner of the state will likely see about a half-inch of rainfall during the weekend, while the rest of Arkansas will receive varied amounts, she said.
The storms will slow what U.S. Drought Monitor climatologists consider an "advancing" drought in the state.
The monitor, which is based at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, issues weekly drought conditions across the country, basing its reports on weather reports, soil surveys and climate studies.
"The biggest concern for the South is if areas miss out on the rain," said David Miskus, a senior forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Silver Spring, Md.
"The conditions will degrade more if there's no rain," he said.
According to the latest report, which was issued Thursday, 13.2 percent of Arkansas is considered "abnormally dry," a condition given to an area that has a deficit of 1 to 2 inches of rain over a 30-day period.
Fifteen counties in west-central and central Arkansas and Desha County in southeast Arkansas were deemed to be abnormally dry, Miskus said. A week earlier, 5 percent of the state was classified as such, he said.
Although the dry area has nearly tripled in size over a week, it could have been worse, Miskus said.
Forecasters compared the first hint of drought in Arkansas in June to that of 2012 when the state experienced a rapid decline in conditions referred to as a "flash drought."
However, heavy rains in Texas over the past two weeks and a weaker ridge of high pressure than normal over the central United States that allowed more Gulf moisture to advance farther north has kept serious drought conditions at bay.
Farther east, the drought is worse.
More than 80 percent of Mississippi, 68 percent of Tennessee and 64 percent of Alabama are in some form of drought. Three months ago, those states were drought free, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported.
Eric Luebehusen, a climatologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington, D.C., said topsoils in Arkansas are beginning to "dry out" and serve as an indication that drought conditions could deteriorate quickly.
"Once it starts drying out, it goes downhill quickly," he said. "Arkansas has pronounced, short-term dryness that could get rapidly worse."
Heat indexes topped 100 degrees in many Arkansas towns Friday, the Weather Service reported. Newport's heat index reached 109 degrees, and Searcy, Little Rock and Jacksonville all recorded indexes of 108 degrees.
The heat index is a measure of how hot it feels when relative humidity is factored in with actual air temperature.
The hot weather drove customers out to the Yellow Sno Cone Shack in Bryant.
"We've been selling a lot of Wedding Cake, Rainbow and Tiger's Blood," owner Ryan McCormick said, referring to popular flavors of the snow cones he makes.
If it gets too hot, though, business slows down, he said.
"The best temperature is the upper 80s," he said. "If it gets way too hot, people don't want to get out of their cars. Or they send their kids to get them."
Grass and hay were beginning to dry out in Perry County, said Jesse Bocksnick, a Perry County extension agent.
"It is a little dry," he said. "If it continues like this for another week, we'll be in trouble."
Bocksnick said storms have dropped rain on parts of his county during the past week, but rainfall is localized.
"We could see 2 inches of rain in some areas and nothing at all 4 miles down the road," Bocksnick said. "We are getting behind in rainfall, but it's not like it was in 2012."
Only 2 percent of Arkansas was considered to be in drought in early June 2012. A week later, 27 percent of the state was in drought, and by July 2012, 70 percent of Arkansas was in "exceptional drought," meaning the area was deficit of 4 inches of rain over a 30-day period.
"A lot of farmers are using pivots and irrigation to keep up," Bocksnick said. "Folks with no access to water are getting behind.
"We are showing some signs [of drought], but we're not seeing ponds receding. That's a telltale sign when it's getting bad."
Clarke said meteorologists expect weekend storms to "sit in one spot" and shower some areas with heavier rainfall.
"The systems are stagnant," she said. "They don't move much, and areas could get 2 to 3 inches, and the next town down may not get much rain at all.
"It's not that bad now, but we still have a lot of summer to go."
Meanwhile, Bocksnick and Perry County farmers will watch for much-needed rains.
"[Drought] is on our radar," he said. "When you're at the diner and the weather comes on, everybody gets quiet and looks at the TV.
"We farmers never cuss rain in July."
State Desk on 07/09/2016