It is astonishing how destructive Ohio Gov. John Kasich's campaign has been to the Republican Party.
The evidence is on full view in Indiana. As part of a deal with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's campaign, Kasich isn't campaigning in the Hoosier State, which votes Tuesday. But he and his supporters are still telling people to vote for him--even though a vote for the Ohio governor is basically a vote for Donald Trump. If Kasich's supporters in Indiana want him to have any chance at the nomination, they will vote for Cruz.
Here's why.
Trump has a slim lead in current polling averages in Indiana. He's at 37 percent, with Cruz close behind at 35 percent. Kasich is far behind with 16 percent. If Kasich's voters switch to Cruz (and all else remains equal), then Cruz will win big. If they stay put, Trump might narrowly prevail. Indiana has 57 delegates: 30 will go to the statewide winner; of the remaining 27, 3 each will go to whomever wins in the state's nine congressional districts.
For Kasich to have a shot at the nomination, he has to prevent Trump from getting to 1,237 delegates on the first ballot at the Republican convention. It doesn't matter how many delegates Cruz has at that point, since he can't get to 1,237.
All that matters for Cruz and Kasich is reaching a second ballot, when now-bound delegates are free to vote their preferences. After that, if Cruz can't put together a majority, it will become possible for someone else to win.
Trump's big sweep in New York on April 19 and in the five states that voted last week have put the reality-TV star ahead of the pace he needs to reach 1,237 bound and committed delegates by the end of the primaries and caucuses on June 7. But he still needs to win plenty of delegates in Indiana and California to reach that mark. (Trump can still make the delegate count even if he's shut out in Indiana, but it would raise the target of how many he needs to win in California.)
A normal candidate in Kasich's position would have dropped out long before now. By failing to do so, he helped end the chances of the mainstream conservatives who were running. It's impossible to say what would have happened if Kasich had dropped out after New Hampshire or after South Carolina and Nevada--but the odds are strong that the GOP nomination fight would have turned out differently.
Editorial on 05/02/2016