Consumers can expect cheaper burgers and lower prices for other meat this weekend and throughout grilling season, the most important time for the meat industry, as high supply pushes down prices at grocery stores and restaurants.
Beef prices will drop about 2 percent this year, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That's because cattle farmers are sending more cows to slaughter after rebuilding their herds after the 2012 drought. Herd levels were at a five-year high at the beginning of the year. Cheap grain prices also have affected the price.
"This Memorial Day weekend will be quite a bonanza for carnivores," said Steve Kay, editor of industry newsletter Cattle Buyers Weekly.
Kay said commercial beef production leading up to Memorial Day is already up about 4 percent from last year. Other meats, including chicken and pork, also are cheaper than they were last year because of high supply.
"We'll see stiff competition between the three major proteins as we enter the summer season," said Travis Justice, Arkansas Farm Bureau chief economist. "Compared to where we've been, we're seeing some very favorable prices."
Poultry production is forecast to increase this year as the industry continues to recover from last year's bird flu outbreak. In Arkansas, one of the top broiler-producing states, chick placements last week were up 8 percent from the same time last year, according to the USDA. The USDA also estimates that pork production will rise this year -- about 2 percent from 2015 -- because of larger and heavier hogs.
"If you're not necessarily a beef lover, there's a lot of extremely cheap pork right now," Kay said. "And chicken, they're almost just giving it away."
Memorial Day weekend is considered the beginning of the grilling season. More than 60 percent of grill owners will use their grill this weekend, according to data from Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association.
"Memorial Day is the kickoff for the entire holiday barbecue season for the summer," said Bob Fields, Sam's Club senior merchandise director for meat and seafood. "It's a big deal for us."
Fields said Sam's Club is being more aggressive on cuts of steak this year because of the value of beef customers can expect.
Summer is peak season for meat sales. About 3o percent of yearly beef sales occur between Memorial Day and Labor Day, according to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. Typically the week of the Fourth of July leads beef sales, followed by Labor Day and Memorial Day.
"Memorial Day weekend is the first real summer event," Justice said. "School just got let out, it's the beginning of the summer holiday."
Beef is especially popular for Memorial Day. About 11 percent more pounds of beef were sold in stores in the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend than any other week last year, according to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association.
While steak dominates grills on Memorial Day, ground beef is the best-selling beef product because it's the cheapest option, according to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. Weekly sales of ground beef spike leading up to the Fourth of July.
"As you move through the summer, we get more hot dogs, burgers and other cheaper cuts of meat," Justice said.
But as prices of steaks and roasts fall, Kay said ground beef won't be as big of a seller this year.
"A lot of beef lovers were forced to trade down because of the high price of steaks," he said. "But people don't need a value beef item as much as they did in the past."
With the low beef prices, analysts expect sales this weekend to top sales from the same time last year.
"Consumer spending is favorable," Justice said. "Attitudes about the economy are good. People are more willing to have their own cookouts occasionally and [are] hosting events where beef serves the primary role."
SundayMonday Business on 05/29/2016