18 Arkansas basketball predictions for the 2016-17 season

Arkansas' Dusty Hannahs (right) drives around Emporia State's Josh Pedersen (left) and Jack Dale Friday, Nov. 4, 2016, during the second half of play in Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville.
Arkansas' Dusty Hannahs (right) drives around Emporia State's Josh Pedersen (left) and Jack Dale Friday, Nov. 4, 2016, during the second half of play in Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville.

— Eighteen Arkansas basketball predictions as the Hogs get set to open their season Friday against Fort Wayne.

1 — Dusty Hannahs finishes his Arkansas career seventh in 3-pointers made

Hannahs hit 81 3-pointers last year while shooting a sizzling 43.3 percent from deep as part of a dynamic shooting duo with Anthlon Bell. Bell graduated and defenses will know to key on Hannahs, but the Razorbacks should have more offensive weapons around him. He’s going to have a big senior season.

Hannahs took 5.8 3-pointers per game last year, while Bell averaged 6.3. If Hannahs took six 3s per game as a senior and repeated last year’s 43.3 percent, he’d wind up with 167 makes assuming Arkansas plays what should be its baseline of 34 games (32 regular season, one SEC tourney, one NCAA). That would be one shy of Jannero Pargo for seventh place.

It’ll probably be close, but Hannahs should pass Pargo if he and Arkansas have the type of year they’re capable of. But there’s essentially no chance he gets any higher than seven. Current staff member Lee Mayberry is sitting at sixth with 218, meaning Hannahs would have to make 137 to tie. Another staff member, Scotty Thurman, holds the single-season record with 102.

Still, sixth would be highly impressive given that he will have only spent two years in a Razorback uniform. He should easily finish among the top four in school history in 3-point makes per game, along with Pat Bradley, Rotnei Clarke and Thurman.

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http://www.wholehog…">Dustin Thomas is a fit next to Moses Kingsley

http://www.wholehog…">Anton Beard poised for bounce-back season

http://www.wholehog…">C.J. Jones' Spain trip wasn't a fluke

http://www.wholehog…">Roster breakdown

2 — Moses Kingsley is the first player in program history to average 3 blocks

His 2.4 blocks per game as a junior ranked second in the SEC behind Vanderbilt’s Luke Kornet, who averaged three a game.

Kingsley would’ve needed an extra 20 blocks to reach the three-block-per club last year, a huge jump in production. But accomplishing the feat as a senior isn’t out of the question.

Remember, Kingsley is still relatively inexperienced. He didn’t take up the game until a few years ago and last season was the first time he played starter’s minutes. Armed with that experience, he’ll be a more savvy defender as a senior, with better ability to time blocks and maneuver the tricky dance of lingering back to bait defenders into shooting, only to rise up and swat the ball.

It is more likely that Kingsley averages three blocks than it is that he sets the single-season blocks record. That belongs to Oliver Miller, who blocked 112 shots in 38 games — 2.95 per game — in the 1990-91 season.

3 — Jaylen Barford becomes the first Hog since 2010 to average at least 10 points and 4 assists

Neither benchmark is exceedingly high, but, when put together, they show the dearth of talent Arkansas has had in the playmaking point guard department recently. Courtney Fortson (17.9 points, 5.7 assists) was the last to surpass both thresholds, but Barford will be more efficient than the 36.1 percent Fortson shot in John Pelphrey’s final season.

Barford certainly won’t get Fortson’s 14.9 shots per game, but his size, strength and quickness make him a tough matchup to stay in front of. He can get by slower defenders and use his 202-pound frame to bully past weaker ones. He can also score from the mid-range and has the ability to knock down 3-pointers.

He has good court vision and is a willing passer to boot, finally giving the Razorbacks a dual-threat point guard who can creatively set others up and get his own shot.

4 — Arkansas returns being a top-20 team nationally at forcing turnovers

The Razorbacks had a number of defensive flaws last season, but they boiled down to 1) not having enough players that fit Mike Anderson’s pressure scheme and 2) not having enough players, period, to turn up the heat on a regular basis.

The result: Arkansas finished outside of the top 20 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage (how often opposing possessions end in turnovers) for the first time since Anderson’s first year in 2012. The Razorbacks only forced turnovers on 19.6 percent of opposing possessions, which ranked 77th and was a far cry from 22.3 percent (20th) in 2015, 23.2 (8th) in 2014 and 24.6 (12th) in 2013. Even in Anderson’s first year, the Hogs forced turnovers on 23.1 percent of possessions with a team of John Pelphrey’s players.

Arkansas appears to have more defensive-minded players on the roster. The depth is unquestionably better. The Razorbacks should look more like an Anderson team this winter.

5 — Dustin Thomas averages at least 8 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists

None of those numbers are mind-blowing, but the Colorado transfer’s versatility is what makes him a valuable addition to the roster.

He can score in a variety of ways, whether it be from the perimeter, mid-range, off the bounce or on the break. He is athletic enough to win 50-50 rebounds and skilled enough to spark transition himself, handling the ball in traffic and either making a play for himself or his teammates.

He won’t be asked to put up a lot of points, but doesn’t lack for confidence and will be an offensive option defenses can’t ignore, which, by itself, means he’s an upgrade at the 4. Throw in his other abilities and he should be a key cog for the Razorbacks.

6 — Arlando Cook will play the fourth-most minutes among the 'bigs'

Kingsley, Thomas and Thompson are all ahead of him in the frontcourt rotation, a pecking order that seems pretty set. But Cook’s size and motor give him the ability to be a hustle, glue guy if he buys into the role.

He appears to be the best bet to get the fourth-most minutes going into the season, but monitoring how his productivity compares with freshmen Adrio Bailey and Brachen Hazen will be a storyline worth tracking during nonconference play when Anderson gives all three a chance to play. Hazen is an intriguing prospect projects as a skilled contributor down the road. Bailey has special athletic gifts, but, at least going into the season, doesn’t play with the intensity Anderson said he wants on an every possession basis.

Cook brings it with the hustle. That will allow him to log more minutes than the two freshmen.

7 — Adrio Bailey finishes second on the team in blocks per 40 minutes

Kingsley will undoubtedly lead the way, but second place is up for grabs. This isn’t a prediction that he will finish second in total blocks, but in blocks as it relates to playing time.

Thomas will start at the 4, but hasn’t flashed much shot-blocking potential as a college player to this point. He is bouncy, so maybe that changes. Junior Trey Thompson blocked 27 shots in 29 games last year, including 18 in 18 SEC games. Arlando Cook averaged 1.2 in junior college last year. Both are more positional defenders than shot blockers. Kingsley being the only real rim protector guaranteed to play big minutes is a bit disconcerting, but Bailey has a chance to make an impact there if given time.

He’ll begin the season playing behind everyone mentioned above, but has the tools (leaping ability, wingspan, instincts) to be a rim protector, even at 6-6. He averaged 3.9 blocks as a senior in high school. He will be an undersized big at this level, but his athletic gifts and aggressiveness give him a chance to be a rim protector, a skill that could help him earn more playing time.

8 — Four rotation players shoot at least 33 percent from 3

On the surface this doesn’t necessarily seem like that big of a deal, but Hannahs and Bell were the only regular 3-point shooters on the roster to hit more than 29 percent of their attempts from deep last year, a reality that led to the least attempted 3-pointers by a Mike Anderson team in his head-coaching tenure.

Hannahs and junior college transfer Daryl Macon should easily surpass the benchmark. Hannahs and Bell combined for more 3-pointers (170) than any other duo in the SEC last season. Hannahs and Macon likely won’t combine for that many. They may make between say 130 and 140, which would still put them in the running for the best duo.

Aside from them, Arkansas appears to have more capable shooters. Point guard Jaylen Barford is an above-average shooter when he’s set and has a clean look. He’s shown discipline in avoiding contested 3s. Freshman C.J. Jones will provide scoring off the bench and may finish with the third-best percentage on the team.

The Hogs hope junior Anton Beard, with a full offseason under his belt, returns to the form that he displayed as a freshman when he shot nearly 40 percent in SEC play as opposed to last season’s 28.8 percent overall. Dustin Thomas is a candidate to be in the neighborhood of 33 percent.

Of those four, at least two should be able to knock down 33 percent from 3. It wouldn’t be surprising if five players did, including Hannahs and Macon. If six can, the Hogs would have a ridiculously difficult offense to stop.

9 — C.J. Jones averages less than 5 points but scores 13-plus at least twice

The lanky 6-foot-5 freshman gets buckets. Jones uses his stellar athleticism to finish above the rim with ease in transition, has a silky smooth 3-point shot and can elevate and score in the mid-range. His offensive game could be scary down the road as he gains experience and improves his handle, but even as is, he has the ability to be a microwave scorer off the bench.

He has five older guards playing ahead of him and hasn’t yet earned Anderson’s trust on defense (but has the tools to be solid on that end of the court in time). That combination figure to make his playing time sporadic as a freshman. Some games he may play six minutes. Others, he may get hot and drop 18 in 15. Two 15-plus games is reasonable and it wouldn’t be a shock if he ranked in the top three on the team in points per 40 minutes. The kid can score and will be a huge part of the program during the next few years.

10 — A freshman makes #SCTop10

Bailey is a violent dunker. Jones is a smooth leaper and possibly the best athlete on the team. Hazen has hops and a knack for finishing alley-oops. One of these freshmen will make an appearance on ESPN’s #SCTop10 this year. It may be a bit premature to anoint Bailey as a dunking highlight factory the caliber of a Michael Qualls, but the potential is there.

11 — Hogs go undefeated in Bud Walton Arena for the first time since 1998

Arkansas is much improved. Anderson has made it clear he really likes his sixth team. Oh. And the home schedule is, uh, not loaded.

Kentucky isn’t coming into Bud Walton, which is a huge shame because it means the masses will almost assuredly be robbed of a Malik Monk homecoming. The nonconference schedule is better in the sense that there are more respectable mid-major opponents in the place of cupcakes, but there isn’t a marquee matchup against a loaded team to watch out for (that said, a team like UT-Arlington could be capable of making it a nailbiter).

The SEC opener against Florida may very well be the toughest home game. Get past that and the Razorbacks have a very good chance of going into a Feb. 22 matchup with Texas A&M with a 16-0 record in Bud Walton.

All it takes is one slipup to put a blemish on the record. After all, for as good as Arkansas has been at home the last 23 years, there have only been two perfect home seasons.

But an 18-0 mark is certainly feasible and makes for a better prediction than forecasting the fifth one-loss home record in Bud Walton history.

12 — Moses Kingsley doesn’t win SEC Player of the Year, but Hogs have 2 All-SEC selections

Obviously Kingsley was the preseason SEC POTY, a deserving honor bestowed on him based on his junior production. He should have a big year with added help around him and will more than likely earn first-team All-SEC honors, but it’s a safer bet that one of the Kentucky freshmen will earn POTY honors. I picked point guard De’Aaron Fox on my preseason ballot, but center Bam Adebayo may be the better choice. Long, aggressive and super athletic, Adebayo will put up big numbers and be the physical presence in the paint the Wildcats lacked last year. That will become the narrative and in turn help his candidacy.

Hannahs will put up the kind of scoring numbers that land him a spot on one of the teams, giving Arkansas its third multiple all-conference selections in five years (Michael Qualls and Bobby Portis in 2015, BJ Young and Marshawn Powell in 2013).

13 — Manny Watkins attempts at least as many 3-pointers before the start of 2017 than he did his first 3 years at Arkansas combined

Manny Watkins isn’t a shooter. He’s only taken eight 3-pointers in three years, missing them all. That’s not his role and fans who can’t get over his lack of perimeter shooting ignore the glue-guy attributes he brings to the table as a solid rotation piece: smarts, size for a guard, defensive intuition, underrated ballhandling and willingness to do the dirty work.

That said, he spent the summer getting shots up, knowing his lack of a perimeter threat negatively effected floor spacing. Anderson even mentioned Watkins beating him to the gym every morning to work on improving his shot. He’s put in the work and claims he’s ready to take 3-pointers given to him. He took a 3-pointer without hesitation in both of the exhibition games. Hannahs — and the rest of the team — is consistently encouraging Watkins to take shots he gets.

He’ll need to take eight in 13 games to make this prediction come true. He won’t suddenly blossom into a shooter, but it will help the offense if he can hit a few, especially early in the season, to build his confidence.

Whether he takes the eight or not, he’ll continue to be valuable role player who can help the team in a number of different ways.

14 — Trey Thompson attempts the least shots (per 40 minutes) of any rotation player

Thompson has a smooth mid-range jumper and has been a reliable finisher around the rim so far in his Razorback career, but he rarely looks for his own shot. Last year, his 4.9 attempts per 40 minutes were easily the least on the team even with him shooting 60.7 percent from the floor.

He showed signs over the summer of being more aggressive on the offensive end, but only took four shots per 40 minutes in Spain, something Mike Anderson chided him for after all the work he put in.

Spacing would be better on offense if Thompson didn’t defer as much, but his passing — he’s at the very least one of the four best passers on the team — allows him to make an impact on offense. But it may be unreasonable to expect a large spike in Thompson shot attempts.

15 — If the Texas A&M game doesn’t draw a crowd of 19,000, this season will mark the fourth straight without hitting that mark at least once

This is the flip side of the lighter home schedule allowing for a potential perfect season at Bud Walton: there aren’t many marquee games that will draw big crowds.

The current stretch of three years without a crowd of 19,000 or more is a pretty long drought, especially considering the exciting teams in 2014 and 2015, seasons during which the Hogs drew seven crowds of 18,000 or more.

The Texas A&M game is in late February and has the potential to have a lot at stake in terms of conference seeding. That and the Florida game look like the best home matchups on the slate, but the Gators trip to Fayetteville happens in December during Christmas break.

16 — R.J. Glasper redshirts

The freshman walk-on from Forrest City separated his shoulder twice in October, prompting him to have surgery after the second injury. There are six players ahead of him at the three guard/wing spots and he would probably be best-served redshirting.

The practice has become increasingly rare in college basketball, but Glasper is a walk-on, which means the coaching staff doesn’t have to automatically budget a fifth year for him into scholarship calculations. Despite his size, his scoring ability and feel for the game could allow him to develop into a contributor. He and Jones are the only two underclassmen guards on the roster. In that light, the redshirt makes more sense.

17 — Hogs win at least 12 in SEC play

Double-digit wins shouldn’t be the benchmark. Even with only having one NCAA Tournament appearance in five years, Anderson’s teams have won 10 or more conference games in three of the four seasons since the league expanded to 18 games. Even last year, the Hogs went 9-9.

An SEC record of 12-6 or better seems plausible. Even with Kentucky being Kentucky and teams like Florida and Texas A&M having talent, the conference is still relatively weak compared to the rest of the Power 5 leagues.

If the Hogs are an NCAA Tournament type team, they should get off to a quick start in conference play. They open at home against Florida in what will be a very big game and go to Kentucky in their third game, but get Tennessee, Mississippi State and Missouri — the latter two at home — to round out their first five. A quick 4-1 start seems plausible and would set the stage for a strong January and February.

18 — Razorbacks make the NCAA Tournament

The Razorbacks have a good chance of going 11-2, at worst, in nonconference action, including the Jan. 28 game at Oklahoma State. A 12-1 or 13-0 mark isn’t out of the question because none of the teams on the schedule have a clear-cut talent advantage.

Road games at Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida will be tough. Say the Hogs lose those three. Trips to South Carolina, Alabama, LSU and Vanderbilt won’t be gimmes. Say the Hogs lose three of those (which may be selling them short).

That’s a 23-8 record in the regular season, which doesn’t seem far-fetched, with possible fluctuations of a game or two either way. Provided they have single-digit losses and a handful of solid wins, their nonconference schedule should lend itself to a solid RPI, a package good enough to get the Razorbacks back in the Dance, a step in the right direction with the added plus of a recruiting momentum in the 2017, 18 and 19 classes.

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