Pre-radar, nature predicted weather; seeds, birds, bugs the stuff of legends

While National Weather Service meteorologists pore over satellite radar, charts, weather trends and constantly updated climate data when forecasting, Guy Ames cracks open a persimmon and takes a look at its seed.

Ames, owner of Ames Orchard and Nursery in Fayetteville, doesn't necessarily subscribe to the accuracy of predicting a winter's wrath on the basis of signs of nature, but he checks the seeds yearly. Legend has it that if there is a spoon-shaped image on the seed inside the fruit, it means a long, snowy winter. A fork indicates a light winter, and a knife means a cutting, cold wind will prevail.

"Of course it's not reliable," Ames said.

Then he thought again.

"But, you know, you could hypothesize that if the seeds are not completely formed it could be a bad growth season, and that could mean a rough winter is ahead," Ames said.

Arkansans have been turning to nature for decades when trying to get a hint of how severe the winter could be.

Persimmon forecasts are just one of many weather-predicting legends.

Old-timers look for how high birds and wasps build nests during the summer. The higher the nests, the higher the snowfall in the winter, they assume.

The number of foggy mornings in August is translated to the number of snowy days in January, some say.

And, bugs?

The thicker the fur on a caterpillar translates to the more severe the cold weather will be. Butterflies will migrate earlier, prognosticators say, if a harsh winter is ahead. Spiders build larger webs to trap more insects so they can fill their bellies before hibernating during a long cold spell. Ants begin marching in homes earlier because of rough weather ahead.

"People didn't have weather satellites available for years," said Janice Stillman, editor of the Old Farmers Almanac in Dublin, N.H. "They looked for patterns and clues to predict weather. They made up rhymes and adages to help them remember."

One such rhyme forecast winds: "Birds fly high, clear skies. Birds fly low, prepare for a strong blow."

If a turkey is able to roost in a tree and won't come down, it is a sign of a lot of snow ahead, Stillman said.

Stillman said she knows of an old Yankee farmer who kills a pig each year and checks the pig's spleen.

The farmer sections the spleen into six segments to represent six months. Whichever section is thickest means the corresponding month will be the coldest, Stillman said.

The same farmer says if a sheep feeds in the morning, it usually means rain will fall in the afternoon.

"We don't use proverbs and sayings in our forecast," Stillman said. "But we do believe nature knows what's ahead."

She said forecasters at the publication use decades of climate records, sunspot data and how they correlate to weather patterns and meteorological information such as jet streams and Arctic oscillation.

Stillman maintains a folksy attitude, however, when discussing such scientific jargon.

"The oscillation is a band of winds around the North Pole," she said. "If it's nice and tight around the Pole, it stays cold up there. If it's all loosey-goosey, the cold will drift down south."

The Old Farmers Almanac has been printing long-range forecasts since 1792.

The publication calls for a mild, dry winter this year for Arkansas. That coincides with what the National Weather Service in North Little Rock forecasts.

Meteorologist Michael Brown said the state shouldn't see much snow because of the formation of a weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. The weather phenomenon is the cooling of the Equatorial Pacific, which results in keeping Arctic air farther north in the United States.

"It doesn't mean we won't get snow," Brown said. "But we should see warmer, drier weather than average this winter."

Brown said he doesn't put too much faith into forecasting weather by looking at seeds, spiders and spleens.

"If the folklore is wrong 90 percent of the time, like some say, maybe we could use it," he said. "We'd predict opposite of what the legends say."

People do cling to the legends, said Joshua Youngblood, a research librarian at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville.

"People perceive patterns," he said. "If something resonates with what they've heard, it makes sense. If they see a persimmon seed has a spoon in it and it snows, it gains resonance.

"If it's wrong, they tend to ignore it. Old wisdom makes sense. Weather models are more accurate over time, but people remember the peaks. If we get a bad winter one year, they will remember that over the mild winters."

Meanwhile, Ames watches weather forecasts on television and collects his persimmons.

"I've heard it that if we get a spoon, it means we'll be eating soup all winter and if we get a fork, we'll eat meat," he said.

"If we get a 'spork,"' he said, referring to the combination of a plastic spoon and fork handed out at fast-food restaurants, "we'll be eating a lot of Kentucky Fried Chicken."

State Desk on 11/25/2016

Upcoming Events