Arkansas farmers are seeing decent but not record-setting yields on most of their crops this harvest, according to numbers released Wednesday by the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service's forecast for October said the nation's corn producers could set a U.S. record for yield at 173.4 bushels per acre, up five bushels from a record set in 2015.
Arkansas farmers planted 745,000 acres of corn this year and, if the harvest holds true, could see 178 bushels an acre, which is better than the forecast for the national average.
Jason Kelley, a corn agronomist with the University of Arkansas System's Agriculture Division, cautioned that the 178-bushel figure is still just a forecast -- and one that has continually progressed downward from a National Agricultural Statistics Service estimate of 189 bushels an acre a few weeks ago. The average in Arkansas was 181 bushels an acre last year.
"The 178 is still good for a 10-year average," Kelley said, "but it's probably a better reflection of reality" of the damage corn suffered from high temperatures and heavy rains in August.
The next statistics service report will be in November, a little closer to the end of harvest.
Grain sorghum had a tough year, but Arkansas farmers for the most part steered clear of that grain in 2016 because of low prices from less demand in China, a large importer. Arkansas farmers planted 440,000 acres last year, compared with just 44,000 this year. Bushels per acre dropped from 98 last year to 70 this year, the statistics service said.
Arkansas is the nation's top rice producer, and state farmers planted 1.5 million acres this year. The statistics service has estimated a yield of 7,200 pounds an acre, down 200 pounds from its forecast just a month ago.
The statistics service's forecast for soybeans -- 48 bushels per acre -- is down one bushel from a month ago. The average yield last year was 49 bushels an acre. Farmers planted 3.1 million acres of beans in 2015, about the same acreage as this year.
"I wouldn't be surprised if the final number is another bushel or two off the 48," said Jeremy Ross, a soybean specialist for the University of Arkansas. "We won't know for sure for a couple of months."
Rains delayed some planting, Ross said. "July was hot and dry, and then we went straight into a very wet period in August. A lot of acreage, of a lot of crops were in a pretty vulnerable period by that time. Looking at the crop all year long, farmers just felt that yields were going to be a little off. There are pockets of guys doing well, but I think everything is just going to be down a little."
Expecting higher prices this year for cotton, Arkansas farmers planted 375,000 acres compared with 207,000 last year. The statistics service projected yields of 1,088 pounds per acre, compared with 1,092 pounds per acre harvested last year.
Business on 10/13/2016