Fourteen county judges have issued burn bans this week and the Arkansas Forestry Commission is warning people of a heightened danger for wildfire as rapidly deteriorating drought conditions form in much of southern Arkansas.
More than 67 percent of the state is considered to be in some form of drought, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The center issues a weekly report on drought conditions across the U.S, basing findings on climatic data that include rainfall amounts, humidity levels, temperature and soil moisture.
According to the center, 67.45 percent of the state is deemed at least "abnormally dry," meaning the area received 1 to 2 inches of rainfall less than average over a 30-day period. In southeast Arkansas, all or portions of 17 counties are considered to be in "moderate drought," meaning they recorded 2 to 3 inches less rainfall than average over a 30-day period.
Southeastern Arkansas counties considered to be in moderate drought are: Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland, Crittenden, Drew, Jefferson, Lee, Lincoln, Monroe, Ouachita, Prairie, Phillips, St. Francis and Union.
Most of Miller County and slivers of Lafayette and Little River counties in southwest Arkansas are also in moderate drought.
Last week, 43.1 percent of the state was considered to be abnormally dry and none of the state was in moderate drought.
The Sept. 22 drought report showed that only 1 percent of Arkansas -- small segments of Benton and Washington counties -- were abnormally dry.
The dry conditions have prompted judges to issue burn bans, meaning residents are prohibited from burning debris because of windy conditions, low humidity and dry brush. The bans were issued in Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Cleveland, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Faulkner, Hempstead, Howard, Jefferson, Lee and Monroe counties.
"People had been burning all summer, and all of a sudden we get this drought," said James Wall, the commission's Bradley County ranger. "You suddenly have good opportunity for fires."
Wall said the area saw light rainfall Thursday -- the first measurable amount since Sept. 10, when half a half-inch of rain fell.
"We hope it does some good, but we need more rain," he said.
The drought has grown quickly, said Brian Fuchs, a forecaster with the National Drought Mitigation Center. Nearly 95 percent of Mississippi is in some form of drought; last week, 71 percent of the state was in a drought. Texas' drought doubled this week with 22 percent of the state in some form of drought. Last week, 11 percent of Texas was in a drought.
"This is unique," Fuchs said of the drought. "You don't expect to see drought increase in October with tropical weather in season. This is a different situation.
"Any shot of rain will help, but it's tough to overcome," he said. "Will the rain in Arkansas [Thursday] do good, or will it just be a blip?"
Most of Arkansas saw some rainfall Wednesday evening and Thursday as a cold front pushed through the state.
Cleveland County recorded 4 inches over a 24-hour period, said meteorologist Lance Pyle of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. Northeast Arkansas saw up to 3 inches of rainfall during the same period.
But the rain was short-lived, he said, and storms were expected to move out of the state by this morning.
The Weather Service forecasts higher temperatures will return to the state by Saturday. El Dorado is predicted to see the mercury rise to 86 degrees for a high on Saturday and 88 degrees on Monday.
"If the areas don't get more rain, this is going to be a long-range drought," Pyle said.
The commission said all of the state is in moderate danger for wildfire, meaning if people burn debris and brush, they should do it in the early morning or evening when winds are down and temperatures are lower.
The commission had rated nine southeast Arkansas counties as having a high danger for wildfires, then lessened that ranking after rains soaked the area.
The state is in its "second season" for wildfire danger, said Adriane Barnes, a spokesman for the commission. Wildfire danger is the highest between February and April and then again from August to October, she said.
August was wetter than usual and dry conditions came to the state later this year, she said.
Usually, tropical storms that hit the Gulf in the late summer months tend to increase moisture in Arkansas, reducing any drought conditions and lowering fire danger.
A hurricane caused the poor conditions in the state this time, Barnes said. Hurricane Matthew surged up the Atlantic coast, drawing moisture from the southeast and creating winds across Arkansas.
"This is a starting a bit later than usual," Barnes said of the increased fire danger. "If we get enough rain, it will decrease that danger. But people need to be careful when burning."
She said people should not burn when wind speeds are above 5 mph and the humidity level is below 30 percent.
Fuchs said he expects the drought will continue to worsen in Arkansas over the next four or five weeks. He said predictions made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this summer indicated the drought would be further east than Arkansas.
"Arkansas was a 'fringe state,'" Fuchs said. "It depends upon what area gets the rain.
"We haven't see any area since the summer that had an increase in drought as rapidly as Arkansas."
State Desk on 10/14/2016