Second Thoughts

HR exploits a high point for Twins

Brian Dozier of the Minnesota Twins has 25 home runs since the all-star break, something that has happened 80 times since 1913, but Dozier’s case seems to be the most unlikely.
Brian Dozier of the Minnesota Twins has 25 home runs since the all-star break, something that has happened 80 times since 1913, but Dozier’s case seems to be the most unlikely.

The Minnesota Twins are easily dismissed as irrelevant, a franchise with the worst record in baseball in search of both a new general manager and a new direction. But here comes Brian Dozier for a bit of ridiculous relevancy, if you're willing to bend your mind around some numbers that make no sense at all.

Minnesota's second baseman homered again Tuesday night. That followed Monday's three home run game against Kansas City. So what we have here is a September full of possibility.

"Dozier has 25 home runs since the all-star break. Going back to 1913 -- as far back as baseball-reference.com's Play Index tracks -- there have now been 80 such instances that a player has homered 25 times in the second half," wrote Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post. "Dozier would appear to be the most unlikely of them all.

"Since 1990 -- the year Dozier turned 3 -- 27 different players have homered 25 times or more in the second half a total of 40 times. This includes a slew of instances during the height of the sport's steroid era from the likely suspects (Mark McGwire three times; Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez four times apiece; Barry Bonds twice). Nine of those players -- a full one-third -- have amassed at least 530 home runs in their careers, placing them in the top 20 all-time.

"Dozier entered this season with 75 total major league home runs -- or two more than Barry Bonds hit in his record-setting 2001 season, when he launched 34 after the all-star break.

"In his four college seasons at Southern Mississippi, Dozier totaled 16 home runs -- or one every 54 at-bats. In his four minor league seasons before being called up to the Twins, he totaled 16 home runs -- or one every 87.8 at-bats.

"After Dozier crushed a leadoff home run off Kansas City's Dillon Gee on Tuesday night, his only hit in four at-bats, he had reached 25 home runs in 215 at-bats after the all-star break. That would be one every 8.6 at-bats, or more than 10 times better than his minor league rate.

"The only players to hit 30 home runs in the second half of a season who aren't in the Hall of Fame are McGwire, Belle, Sosa and Bonds along with Ryan Howard and Jose Bautista, who are still active.

"Dozier has three-and-a-half weeks to join that group. Twins fans ought to dive into those numbers. Nerding out over one weird performance can somehow salvage a lost summer."

Quick turnaround

Jimmy Walker had gone 11 consecutive tournaments without a top 10 when he showed up at Baltusrol and went wire-to-wire at the PGA Championship for his first major and only victory this year.

Out of nowhere? Not really.

Walker traces his victory to the back nine of the RBC Canadian Open, where he closed with a 68.

"I felt like I keyed in on some good stuff in Canada. I started to drive it really well -- a nice, tight draw," he said. "Sunday on the back nine, I felt like it came together. I thought, 'This felt awesome.' "

That was the start. Walker played a few nine-hole matches with Rickie Fowler at Baltusrol, hopeful of taking the good form from Canada into the final major. And he did.

It was another reminder of how quickly fortunes can change.

I put a spell on you

Brad Dickson of the Omaha (Neb.) World-Herald, on the Jim Harbaugh recruit who backed out of his oral commitment because the school misspelled his name: "I think I now know why T.J. Houshmandzadeh didn't play for Michigan."

Sports on 09/08/2016

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