Democrats look to field strong candidates for Congress in '18

WASHINGTON -- Hoping for a tidal wave of anti-Trump votes in 2018, Democrats say they are working hard to line up strong candidates to run for Congress.

After suffering setbacks in November, Democrats say the political climate is improving for them in Arkansas and nationwide.

In a special election in Kansas last week, the Democratic candidate captured 46 percent of the vote in a district President Donald Trump carried by 27 points. Polls also show a close U.S. House race in a heavily Republican Georgia district. Voters head to the polls there Tuesday.

State Rep. Michael John Gray of Augusta, the newly elected Democratic Party of Arkansas chairman, said he's monitored the contests in Kansas and Georgia and is encouraged by what he sees.

"In this past election cycle, people wanted change. And now they're starting to feel the effect of some of the Republican Party change and they're not liking it," he said.

Arkansans who are dissatisfied with Republican leadership will have an alternative in 2018, Gray said, adding, "We're going to be ready."

Democrats in all four congressional districts in Arkansas have already expressed interest in running, though it's premature to release the names, party officials said.

Any challengers who run will be underdogs, election experts say.

"The evidence suggests that those seats are safe for incumbents and safe for Republicans for the foreseeable future," said Janine Parry, a political science professor at the University of Arkansas. "It would take some kind of seismic national shift to affect those seats."

In 2016, Arkansas Democrats didn't field candidates in the state's 1st, 3rd or 4th congressional districts.

In the 2nd district, which covers much of central Arkansas, Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill beat Democrat Dianne Curry, 58 percent to 37 percent.

"There were a lot of good people out there that wanted to run who just didn't feel like the time was right for them, for whatever reason," Gray said.

This time, things look more promising, he said. "I'd say the atmosphere is encouraging. I feel like the odds are really good that all four [congressional districts] would have a Democratic candidate."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a Washington-based group that focuses on electing Democrats in the House, is actively recruiting candidates nationwide.

"What makes this year unique is both the quality and the quantity of people who are ready to step up and give a new voice to the needs of their community," Democratic committee spokesman Cole Leiter said in a written statement.

Republican Party of Arkansas spokesman Stephen Houserman said his party will be ready to tackle the opposition.

"There's no doubt in our minds that the Democrats are going to try really hard," he said. "We expect them to put a lot of heart and soul into the next races."

But Democratic leaders will have a hard time persuading Arkansans to embrace a left-leaning agenda, he said.

"We think that Arkansas is an inherently conservative state ... and they want to see traditional values," Houserman said.

The Republican incumbents already have money in their campaign coffers.

As of March 31, U.S. Rep. Steve Womack of Rogers, who hasn't faced a Democratic opponent since 2010, had nearly $1.2 million cash on hand. U.S. Rep. Bruce Westerman of Hot Springs had $421,780 saved up. U.S. Rep. Rick Crawford of Jonesboro had nearly $$305,599, campaign officials said.

As of Dec. 31, U.S. Rep. French Hill of Little Rock had about $648,669, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

If 2018 is a typical year, Democrats will gain seats in the House and Senate nationwide, according to Hal Bass, a political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University.

In a midterm election, the party that controls the White House typically loses ground on Capitol Hill. Most of the changes occur in districts where Democratic and Republican voters are fairly evenly matched, he added.

Arkansas, in recent years, has increasingly voted Republican.

With hardworking, well-known, well-funded Democrats losing in recent years, candidate recruitment became increasingly difficult, Bass said.

"I think there was a kind of palpable sense of despair among Arkansas Democrats when they saw folks like [former U.S. Sens.] Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor [and former U.S. Rep.] Mike Ross go down to really decisive defeats, and I think that made it awfully hard to imagine a path to victory in 2016," Bass said.

It will be easier to get volunteers this time, he said.

"I think [Democrats] will find people who want to run. Whether they are truly competitive remains to be seen, but I do think you're going to see the ballot filled," he added.

They'll need 2018 to be a landslide year for Democrats nationwide in order to win, Bass said.

Those who are serious about entering the race need to make up their minds soon, Bass said. "People are not going to wake up ... in 2018 and decide it's time to run a campaign. The foundations are being laid right now for the successful candidate in 2018," he said.

Metro on 04/17/2017

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