A stalled storm system over Northwest Arkansas and Oklahoma will dump up to 8 inches of rain on parts of the state this weekend, causing rivers and streams -- already swollen from recent downpours -- to overflow their banks, National Weather Service meteorologists forecast.
Hydrologists said the worst of the flooding will occur in the White River basin, the Arkansas River in the western half of the state, the Buffalo River and the Black River.
Rescue workers searched unsuccessfully for a third day Friday for a man who disappeared Wednesday on the Buffalo National River after his canoe overturned. Officials suspended their search Friday afternoon until floodwaters recede and the river is safer to navigate.
Forecasters originally said the heaviest rain would fall today over an area between Mena and Russellville, but newer weather models indicate that more rain will likely fall in eastern Oklahoma.
"Earlier, we thought the bull's-eye was over Russellville," said meteorologist Sean Clarke with the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. "But when heavy rain falls in Oklahoma, it causes significant issues on the Arkansas River."
Clarke said runoff from Oklahoma storms cascades into the Arkansas River and eventually flows downstream into Arkansas. Rains in southern Missouri eventually run off into Arkansas' reservoir lakes in the northern edge of the state.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers had already issued a small-craft advisory for the Arkansas River on April 18 because of the river's rapid flows. The Corps warns boaters to stay off the river when its flow rate reaches 75,000 cubic feet per second. Forecasters say the Arkansas River will crest at a flow rate of 300,000 cubic feet per second early next week, Corps spokesman Laurie Driver said.
"We are advising people who live along low areas of the Arkansas River to move equipment and farm animals to higher ground," she said.
The river is expected to crest at 364 feet Sunday evening at Ozark. Flood stage there is 357 feet. The river reached 369 feet on Dec. 29, 2015 -- the third-highest recorded there -- when heavy rains deluged Oklahoma and Arkansas.
In Dardanelle, the Arkansas River will rise to 36 feet by Monday morning. Flood stage there is 32 feet.
On Tuesday, the river is expected to rise to 17.5 feet in Little Rock, where the flood stage is 23 feet.
"This is shaping up to be a similar situation," Driver said, referring to December 2015 flooding. "People need to be monitoring flash flood warnings. They need to make decisions [on evacuation plans] now."
Corps teams built a temporary flood wall and sandbagged around a powerhouse below the dam at Beaver Lake on Friday in preparation for flooding.
The lake level had already risen by 5 feet from rains earlier in the week, Driver said. Beaver Lake and Table Rock Lake will receive most of the rainfall's runoff in northern Arkansas this weekend, she said.
"We're expecting to see 8 to 9 inches of rain in southern Missouri over the weekend," Driver said. "That will all run into the White River basin."
Terry Jenkins, owner of Jenkins Fishing Service in Calico Rock, spent Friday taking boats out of the White River, and securing launches and docks.
"The danger is the debris and the swift current," he said.
The White River is expected to crest at 32 feet Sunday. Flood stage at the Izard County town is 19 feet.
"They say most of the heavy rains will be north of us," Jenkins said. "I don't want to wish anything bad on anyone else, but we've just got to pray it'll go south of us."
Just upstream on the White River, Randy Crumby, owner of Mount Olive Outdoors, moved visitors from one of his cabins along the river to higher ground.
"We've got some cabins that will be cut off when the water rises," he said. "We are constantly looking at the [U.S. Geological Survey] forecast for river levels to see what's coming down.
"We're expecting a bumpy ride for the next few days," Crumby said. "I'm preparing for it to be high."
Officials suspended rescue efforts Friday evening for the man who fell out of a canoe into the Buffalo National River on Wednesday morning.
Four men launched canoes at Kyles Landing in Newton County and two fell into the water when their canoes overturned, said Caven Clark, a spokesman for the Buffalo River National Park.
Teams rescued one canoeist on a small island upstream from the landing about 3 p.m. Wednesday. Others saw the second man in the rapids but could not reach him.
The river is expected to rise from 10.2 feet Friday evening to 45 feet Sunday morning.
Farther east, the Black River at Pocahontas is expected to rise to 24.3 feet by Tuesday evening. Water from four other rivers north of the Randolph County town runs off into the Black River.
"I'm thinking it could get to 26.5 or 27 feet," Randolph County's County Judge David Jansen said Friday. "It won't top the levees until 28 feet."
He and 14 other members of the Black River Levee Board met Thursday and checked the levee's integrity in anticipation of the approaching flooding.
"We're prepared," Jansen said. "We're hoping for the best. If it stays at 24 feet, I'll be the happiest guy in the world."
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the northern edge of a warm front were expected to cross the state Friday evening, Clarke said earlier in the day. Storms are forecast to form again this afternoon and tonight.
The forecast on tornadoes diminished Friday from earlier predictions, but isolated tornadoes could pop up, he said.
"It's feast or famine for Arkansas," Clarke said. "If storms start really developing, it could be bad."
State Desk on 04/29/2017