New reporting by Huffington Post's Matt Fuller and Politico's Tim Alberta and Rachel Bade suggests Paul Ryan is on his way out of the House, perhaps leaving at some point during the current Congress, but before the next one convenes in January 2019.
Republicans are almost certain to lose seats in 2018. That's what almost always happens during a president's first midterm, and given Donald Trump's awful approval ratings and poor results for Republicans in 2017, it's hard to see anything but a good year for Democrats. By the same token, it's hard to see how Paul Ryan will avoid having the worst job in Washington. Unless he quits.
Suppose Democrats fall short, and Republicans retain their majority. In this scenario, Speaker Ryan would be spending most of his time and energy struggling to build a working majority. Most of the lost seats would belong to mainstream conservatives. The proportion of anti-compromise radicals within the Republican caucus would increase, and so would the number of them Ryan would need to reach 218 on any vote. Everything except for must-pass legislation would likely grind to a halt. Ryan would probably have no choice but to beg Democrats for votes, which in turn gives them leverage and radicals more reasons to call Ryan a sellout.
It's grueling enough with a normal president, but Trump makes things even more so. When Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush cut deals with Democrats, Republican leaders could shrug at unhappy members of their caucus and point toward the White House. But Trump has shown zero ability to cut deals, and an impressive aptitude for undercutting whatever his party's leaders are doing. That leaves Ryan (and Mitch McConnell or whoever replaces him) with all of the responsibility and all of the blame for trying to get anything done.
The chances that the House Republican leader can survive two years of that are slim, and surviving it with a decent reputation among conservative activists would be even more difficult.
And if Ryan stays put and manages to survive that stretch? It's possible that Trump could prevail in 2020, returning Congress to Republican control in the process. But it seems less than likely. Ryan's job would certainly be easier if Democrats swept in 2020.
For much of this, Ryan has only himself to blame. His skills remain those of an ideological propagandist, not a legislator or a congressional tactician. There's a place for those strengths in Congress, but it's not a great fit for the Speaker's chair. Perhaps he won't be there much longer.
Editorial on 12/18/2017