The 89th annual Academy Awards will be broadcast Sunday night. As is our custom, we've assembled some highly invested industry observers and award mavens to help you -- yes, you, dear reader -- win your Oscar night party pool.
This year's panel:
Sam Blair (SB), retired Little Rock Central High School college counselor, our resident armchair critic and a frequent contributor to our blood, dirt & angels blog; Jennifer Boulden (JB), associate editor of Arkansas Living magazine and freelance wordsmith; Danny-Joe Crofford (DJC), longtime friend of the program; Dan Lybarger (DL), our Kansas City-based film critic and "the Nate Silver of Oscar picks,'' (but he'd like to be the Alan Lichtman); your humble correspondent Philip Martin (PM); Jonathan Nettles (JN), film critic for KHTV, who is still upset over the Academy's snubbing of The Intouchables in 2012; our day copy desk chief and invaluable font of cinematic history, Joe Riddle (Joe); "the Gary Johnson of Oscar handicappers," film director, screenwriter and impresario Jay Russell (JR); and Philadelphia resident, Movies in the Park founder Blake Rutherford (BR).
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land -- SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, JR, BR
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight -- PM, Joe
Comments: Since I'm hardly a serious competitor, all my picks this year will be for the films I'd like to see win. And since this is my column, all my comments go first. SB: Loving should have been nominated. Manchester should win. JB: Never bet against a crowd-pleasing Hollywood movie. DJC: Hidden Figures should win. DL: Manchester should win ... I've rarely seen a movie about blue collar life that seemed more gripping and convincing. JN: I'd love to see Arrival or Moonlight win. Joe: This is a tough year for Best Film, as there are several worthy of that honor. My preference would be Hell or High Water. But Moonlight will win. All I know is La La Land is wildly over-rated. JR: In December, I would have said La La Land by a landslide. Today, I think Hidden Figures could sneak in and pull a Spotlight.
ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea -- JB, DL, JN, BR, Joe
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land -- JR
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences -- SB, DJC, PM
Comments: I would have liked to have seen Joel Edgerton nominated for his subtle work in Loving. DL: Let's face it, Denzel Washington is simply a great actor. Affleck has won a lot of critics' polls, but Washington, a two-time winner, has won the SAG-AFTRA award, and the Academy membership is mostly composed of thespians. JN: Ryan Gosling was nominated for the wrong film in this category. JR: Who do I want to win? Viggo Mortensen.
ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle -- PM, JN, Joe
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land -- JB, DJC, DL, JR, BR
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Comments:Meryl Streep's obligatory nomination cost Amy Adams. That said, I think Huppert should but won't win. SB: Not a weak link among them. Viola Davis should have been nominated in this category. JB: Oscar likes to crown the beautiful, young, smart, bankable actresses. DJC: Natalie Portman should win. DL: Possible spoiler? Portman. JN: I really want to see Ruth Negga win. JR: Who do I want to win? Natalie Portman because that was a no win role, and she pulled out a win (meaning, a wonderful, surprising performance).
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight -- JB, SB, DJC, DL, JN, Joe, JR, BR
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea -- PM
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Comments: Toughest call for me. This is a strong category and all these performances were fantastic. SB: Should have been nominated -- Simon Helberg in Florence Foster Jenkins. JB: Ali popped up in everything this year, and would make history as the first Muslim to win an acting Oscar. Joe: I think Dev Patel will win for his role in Lion. JR: They all should win. Especially Jeff Bridges for his 15 second reaction at the climax of that movie. And Michael Shannon, who came in like a shot of adrenaline to this movie.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences -- SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, Joe, BR
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures -- JR
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Comments: SB: Should have been nominated -- Tae Ri-Kim in The Handmaiden. JN: I'd love to see Naomie Harris win. Joe: Davis deserves it for her fine work in Fences, AND it is her turn. JR: The supporting roles this year were the standouts to me.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle --PM, JR
Zootopia --SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, Joe, BR
Comments:So-so year for cartoons, but Zootopia and The Red Turtle would contend in almost any year. JB: Zootopia for DMV sloths. DL: Kubo should win.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine, Denmark
A Man Called Ove, Sweden
The Salesman, Iran -- SB, JB, DL, PM, JR, BR
Tanna, Australia
Toni Erdmann, Germany
Comments: I've only seen three of the five, which is better than most of our panel. My favorite foreign language film of 2016 was Iceland's Rams. SB: The Handmaiden should have been nominated. DJC: No pick. JN: No pick. I did not see any ... but I did watch Donnie Yen in the Ip Man trilogy on Netflix, and those were pretty good. JR: I'm going to pick The Salesman, because Trump made the filmmaker stay home.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro -- PM, JR
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America -- SB, JB, DL, BR
13th -- JN
Comments: A very strong field, but I would have liked to have seen Kate Plays Christine and Two Trains Running get some recognition. But I Am Not Your Negro deserves to win. SB: Command and Control should have been nominated.
DIRECTOR
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge, Mel Gibson
La La Land, Damien Chazelle -- SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, JR, BR
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan -- Joe
Moonlight, Barry Jenkins -- PM
Comments: Jenkins over Lonergan by a micron. SB: Should have been nominated -- David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water. JB: It would make history if Moonlight's Barry Jenkins became the first black Oscar winner in directing. DL: The guild awards have gone Chazelle's way, and the movie is a remarkable technical achievement. It's too bad he didn't pick a leading man who could sing. Joe: I hope Kenneth Lonergan wins. JR: Chazelle will win, and I want him to win because of Whiplash, which was a better movie.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival, Eric Heisserer -- JN
Fences, August Wilson -- JR
Hidden Figures, Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
Lion, Luke Davies
Moonlight, Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney -- SB, JB, DJC, DL, Joe, BR
Comments: Not sure Moonlight should really be considered adapted, but under these rules it gets my vote. Otherwise I would have picked Manchester. DJC: Hidden Figures should win. JR: Tough to beat a dead guy. Who do I want to win? Barry Jenkins or Luke Davies. Both great scripts.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
La La Land, Damien Chazelle -- DJC, DL, JR
The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan -- SB, JB, JN, Joe, BR
20th Century Women, Mike Mills
Comments: I maintain that Jeff Nichols' Loving should have been nominated, in this category. SB: Should have been nominated -- Ira Sachs for Little Men. DJC -- Hell or High Water should win. JB: Lonergan's biggest competition comes from a sweep by La La Land or the tight and quotable Hell or High Water. DL: Lonergan or Sheridan should win. Joe: Best Screenplay belongs to Taylor Sheridan for Hell or High Water, but I think Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea will win, and both are deserving.
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MovieStyle on 02/24/2017